Welcome to entry log four of the IDP Tipster’s Narrative Dossier. If you want solid takes, here is where you will find them!
2018 IDP Narrative Dossier
The simple summary of the introduction to the 2018 IDP Narrative Dossier is accountability, which can be found in Entry Log One.
Entry Log Four
If we note the dates of the publications and ask most writers when it is at it’s hardest time of the year to attempt secure “takes”, the likely answer would be right at end of one regular season, thru the free agency period, and after the rookie draft. There are just so many variables in that time span that can change everything in one single event occurrence.
But overflowing with confidence after a strong 2017 season I found myself stepping towards that cliff instead of taking a step back from the edge and began the off-season recklessly. I don’t have any regrets in doing so and simply had the intentions to reward all that had supported me in 2017. While I directly wanted to provide as early as possible actions to be executed before any mainstream media or “gurus” caught on. It is a simple philosophy, gain the edge early and let that momentum carry us through and into the following season.
“On a personal note, I’m not excited for us to cover the Titans at this time. I did “poll” on what team we should cover next on Twitter and have to say when the Titans became the next team I sighed a little.” – At the time I meant it, and what “take” I did make were obviously safe, to say the least. You would simply need to see the article to get the “feel” of why. But here are the final “takes” I did make.
“Kevin Byard: The only true target”. – As I mentioned, in the spirit of the article, obvious to some readers.
“Johnathan Cyprien: At the risk of being wrong, an avoid or trade bait.” – We’ll be able to cancel this one out. There is no “hit” or “miss”, he is out for the season at this point.
“Adoree’ Jackson: This should show how desperate I am to suggest (a cornerback) as an IDP. If you 100% need to start a cornerback, great target here.” – Please people, no laughing. The article was before the draft after a new defensive-minded head coach was brought in. But needless to say, it is a “take”.
“Wesley Woodyard: If you had to start a max 4 LBs each week, he is a 3rd at best. And hopefully your 4th option or 1st depth.” – To break the statement down, he’ll be a low LB2. Again, all in the context of the article and the approach I took. I even mention the draft coming up when talking more in-depth about him.
“Jurrell Casey: If you have to start 2 DLs, hopefully, he is your 2nd option at best.– With the obvious above, and in the spirit of how I made the statement, my “take” was he won’t be a DL1 in 2018. His ceiling in the scheme will top out in the DB2 range at best. Still solid, but don’t bank on it.
“The new DC James Bettcher came from Arizona where he ran the 3-4 with a lot of success and there is no reason to think the intentions are not to run “his” defense in New York.” – Might seem obvious at the moment, but if you read the introduction, it was not so much then. A “hit” claimed, they did switch it all over to Bettcher’s defense.
“Alec Ogletree has to be by far our top potential upper-tier 1 player at linebacker.” – Read the intro please (lol). I think at this point it will have to play out that Ogletree isn’t the highest producing IDP player, not counting sack-heavy leagues, for this to be a “miss”.
“There is no surprise to many that Landon Collins will be inserted here as the “other” one of the two main IDP players to be targeted at the highest level.” – Hopefully, his arm injury and surgery don’t hamper his production in 2018. I’m not 100% sure at the moment this “take” was a pre-surgery announcement or not. But no way I pull it now.
“Damon Harrison may end up falling just a bit in tier 1 to the lower half but just based on his dominating play we can’t take him out of our tier 1 targets among the defensive lineman.” – Fingers Crossed? I joke, this is still in play and needs to play out.
“(B.J.) Goodson” His ceiling should be around the mid to upper Tier 2 if he can stay on the field.” – Unless Ogletree goes down with injury (knock on wood he won’t), Goodson won’t be an LB1 in 2018. The “if he can stay on the field.” was a sort of insurance in making the “take” for a reason.
“(Darian) Thompson’s role will not change much from the 3-4 to 4-3 base. With the history of how defensive coordinator Bettcher used his safeties in Arizona Thompson should receive a firm tier 2 tag and be considered in the late second wave of safeties coming off the board.” – Simple, don’t expect Free Safety Darian Thompson will be more than a tier 2 (DB2), no more, no less.
“Olivier Vernon’s tier of production may be a little tricky to make a call on at this point. And can hinge greatly on his position classification in any given fantasy league. We should still consider him as a possible low tier 2 type at the moment simply because there just isn’t any other option for the Giants at the outside linebacker position that will likely outplay him.” –
Best call I could make at the time was safe, at the time not only was all the details of how the new scheme would translate to the players public, but his role in the defense had not been announced. Either way, all he has to do is be a tier 2 in either designation in any site. I’ll add here, this will only be for combined tackle leagues, not sack heavy. I do not “write” from that perspective, never have.
In the end, I mention Calvin Munson, which I’ve covered and mentioned that I covered in an earlier article and “take”. -It’s not over till it’s over.
Claiming The “No-Take” Articles
5/18 to 6/13; 2018 Rookie Articles
I’m going to keep this as short and sweet as possible. Between the above dates, I meet the demand by readers of writing about the rookie class. What I mean by this is just as simple. I don’t depend nor do I suggest rookies for production in year one. So I don’t go as far as making “takes’ on those rookies, per-say, immediately after the real NFL draft. In these articles, the word “Potential” was the theme as well as inserted in the articles. I make my “no-take” claim.
This works both ways, they may hit that potential and I could have claimed it, I want to make it clear now I was only filling the time by writing about the only topic available at that time of the year. I’d also like to add an article link HERE for anyone wondering about my angle on why I don’t “take” on rookies at the time those articles were written. I will insert those articles links below, but only for recording that I wrote them.
With the rookie’s articles out of the way, we will backtrack with a couple of articles I wrote between the rookie articles. These will be my final two articles I’ll be listing with “takes” involved that I wrote from January to June of 2018 while I enjoyed my time cleatgeeks.com. At that point, we parted ways on good terms and still at this time communicate and support each other’s content. I couldn’t say it enough back then, so I’ll say it again now. Thanks, CG, it was a hell of a ride!
“ I’m pretty confident in any drafts going forward this year that Milano’s ADP to draft him should be a bargain compared to Edmunds also. If I’m in a rookie only draft, Edmunds is the guy, the number one target overall off the board. If I’m in any sort of all player draft, I’m gambling on Milano who I can likely get at least a round or two later. That’s my thoughts.”
– The entire article was production versus ADP between second-year Matt Milano and rookie Tremaine Edmunds. The “take” is that between the two players, in the end, the IDP production between the two will be splitting hairs and it’ll be Milano who was the better ADP value. We’ll need to address the details in 2019 to see if this is, in fact, true in the end.
Additional quotes: “In 2018 I think if both players stay healthy we will see them both produce within 15% of each other per your league’s fantasy points scoring by the end of the season in 2018.” – At the time of the article Milano was barely being drafted in any leagues, if at all. Edmunds rookie hype was in full force and he was being drafted as high as the first wave in some cases of IDPs off the board in full redrafts.
At the time I’m writing this we should note a couple of things. My statements are for the 2018 season. And to end this I’m adding a snapshot of the ADP on myfantasyleague.com, the site I like to use personally. Notice the criteria used, to get the info I had to go 5% because there just isn’t that many IDP leagues versus none-IDP leagues in the sites overall leagues. But I believe the snapshot still speaks for itself. In 1079 leagues drafted only 21 linebackers to fit the bill and Edmunds is a whopping ninth overall. Also, note that it was drafting after June 1st to reflect more of a current ADP to this point.
My first article as the “Tipster”. Ironic to me because I had no clue at that time my next article would be with the IDP Guys where my transition has come full circle in the fantasy writer’s realm. Thank you.
I have to also mention, at the time of these “takes”, neither player was on the radar or being toted by anyone as such. And at the time of this article recapping they are just getting a little light shined on them. And the overall “takes” are not on production level per-say, it is that they’ll end up being relevant enough.
Eagles Linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill
“There is some “upside” here with KGH if he wins the role. KGH is likely going undrafted in full redrafts and on the waiver wire in standard size leagues, do you have a hole to fill? possibly a “flier” 3 – 4 outside linebacker to drop?” – I was simply putting him out here as a player gaining momentum. So far the reports at this time are positive that I was right in doing so. The “upside” portion is still in play for 2018 and again we’ll note he is firmly in the running according to camp reports.
Chiefs Rookie Armani Watts
“He actually had positive grades with “upside” to become an instant starter or even an in-season starter option when it’s a matter of time Sorenson does falter. He does have some work to do to gain the Chiefs trust, but we need him firmly on our radar as his situation has “upside” as a potential IDP play.” – Same as KGH above, camp reports have him running with the first unit after a short ankle injury. We will note the first “official” preseason depth chart doesn’t have him listed as a starter. No concerns here on my part, we have all season for him to get it done.
This will conclude entry log four of my 2018 IDP Narrative Dossier. And in parting ways again this time I’ll add I’m again confident in the “takes” so far but keep in mind with the risks I mentioned of making “takes” at the time of the year that I did in entry log one.
A couple of these “takes” in log two do have less “upside” now while a couple seemed to have gained momentum. If you would like to chat about any of the above because you acted on them, please do, we can access the situations now together as the NFL teams are heading into camps.