Welcome to The IDP Guys site Launch
While preparing for my debut with the launch of The IDP Guys website as the featured writer, I had struggled to pinpoint exactly what the main contributing article content would be under The IDP Tipster persona. I had recently released an article with The IDP Tipster theme (HERE) with my former site, and as much as I felt the subject matter is sustainable for more articles, it was not exactly what I felt the launching of The IDP Guys site deserved. Sometimes grinding out viable content can be taxing to do, especially when wanting to make a “launch” worthy effort in the process. At last, and nearing my deadline, I believe I have managed to start this partnership off right.
When I started out on one idea that I wasn’t exactly excited about and feeling the pressure with the launch date approaching, I was shocked to see the updated ADP results concerning a few players on MFL. They just happen to be my preferred play when enjoying an FF league, and I believe the ADP info there is relevant in all of FF.
The results warrant our attention of a few key players in 2018 off the top. Including three of my breakout players, I’ve been pulling for people to consider. We will start out by looking at the overall ADP trend supplied by MFL and note a few key observations as we do on each main position group. Be sure to “CLICK” when you can for links supplying info as we go. Never know what we may learn along the way.
Linebacker ADP Review
- The glaring issue I saw off the top is second-year WLB Matt Milano was not even listed as being drafted. He is a breakout candidate with nothing but “upside” reports as a starter for the Bills this coming season. As upsetting as this is for my personal viewing, take advantage of that situation. He will make some IDP owners happy in 2018. Milano may not break out into the Tier 1 level, but his ceiling could be just that. And in the end he was actually the Bills highest graded LB in 2017, despite the erratic way they used him thru the season as a starter. “Pegged” the best guy on the field last season by many Bills resources, and ending the season as one of the top graded rookie LBs by PFF.
- If you are drafting a rookie at some of those high ADPs in a full redraft, beware. When looking at top rookies, it has to be a dynasty and you must be 100% sold on the idea that he will be one of the rookies to beat the Rookie Success Rate Odds. Best of luck with that at those ADPs. They’ll likely pay off sometime in a season or two.
- Joe Schobert owners are in love with his one year of production by default. There are quite a few of the following players I’d soon take that are not old enough to worry about and have had plenty of consecutive years of production we should consider. For those owners, here is to the odds the Browns revamping of the offense will not work. Schobert will need all the snaps he can get to come near matching last years stats.
- OLB Jadeveon Clowney and OLB Von Miller are master stud “names”, let’s hope those owners are in sack-heavy scoring leagues. Neither have ever reached tier 1 in combined tackles among linebackers. Only Miller has in one season reached tier 2 in that category.
- There seems to be a large amount of Reuben Foster believers who are overlooking the red flags. Good for them as well as for us that are not heeding the warnings and will play the odds he won’t be around for a full career in the NFL. I’d soon gamble on Schobert personally, yep, that’s how it is. All I got in my head is former gangster minded Aldon Smith. If you don’t know who he is, there’s a reason why.
- On the same note, Alec Ogletree and Zach Brown are going to be a steal for those owners.
- Blake Martinez owners shouldn’t hold their breath that when Aaron Rodgers returns in 2018 his snap count won’t fall, the effect could drop him a half to a full tier in ranking. If the offense isn’t three and out and the defense is not on the field all the time like in 2017, fewer opportunities matter. See “Schobert” as well, again. Rodgers isn’t going to be three and out when he returns, never has been, always seeming to be in that end zone or making drives.
- Preston Brown is riding his production from his years with the Bills into the sunset. Ever heard of the movie “Risky Business” with Tom Cruise? Let’s just say that in the real world that the guy doesn’t always get the girl in the end and everything works out. All the players after him in the ADP are ranging from way more appealing to just appealing over where he is there. The ride of production by default in Buffalo is over for the barely average talented LB.
- As confused as I am with the observation with the Steelers T.J. Watt ADP as an OLB, so am I with the Vince Williams ADP. Tyler Matakevich and Jon Bostic are actually the linebackers that should be vying for that spot in the ADP. One or the other should replace Shazier for 2018 via reports. The likely winner “could” actually warrant the Watt ADP mention in that number one observation. Vince Williams struggled overall trying to replace Shazier production.
- Jamie Collins still getting love even after just being able to produce 1 elite season all these years. And now an SLB and likely edge defender in 2018. If he is healthy. I’ll pass there at that ADP with him.
Defensive Lineman ADP Review
- I wonder if Khalil Mack and Chandler Jones land at those ADP’s based on being switched from the OLB designation to the DE designated for 2018. Mack is understandable for sure. An older, with a bad back, J.J. Watt and second-year Myles Garrett over Jones, is not. Both Watt and Garrett getting a bit too much love.
- Danielle Hunter as well receiving that love, this has to be the dynasty love. He is a freak of nature after all. Whenever he is a team’s DL1 and receives the prime spot to work from in the formation, he’ll thrive at a very high level.
- ADPs worth.
- Really nice to see Vic Beasley getting his respect after a poor 2017 as an SLB/Edge Rusher. With the news that he’ll be a full-time defensive end again for the Falcon’s in 2018, his arrow is definitely pointing back up. Possibly this time next year we see him in the top 10 ADPs.
- Demarcus Lawrence deserves his ADP after last season, sure would like to see at least two years in a row at that level. I personally had to rank him high with those big boys, but not sure I wouldn’t just skip him this year and grab the guy in my rankings beneath him that might have shown up for consecutive seasons.
- JPP’s ADP is understandable as he signed with the Buccaneers, we shouldn’t suggest a reach on him, but it is wild to see a couple of those names above him.
- Rookie Marcus Davenport is a curious case. There sure are some solid DLs under him.
- Dante Fowler is still getting some attention, I wonder if Yannick Ngakoue and Fowler will both be splitting that spot as they did in the rotation last season for the Jaguars. The battle (higher the CAR AVG, the better) between the two should be interesting, to say the least, for playing time as well, as who may be the one to actually surpass the other in their third season. Do we find this interesting that Fowler was the third overall pick in 2016 and that Ngakoue was a 3rd round selection?
- Personally love seeing my Grady Jarrett up there, glad I pegged him for a breakout in 2017 in one of my first couple of articles as an IDP writer. And so does my personal FF flagship roster, after originally plucking him off the wire in the auction for a minimum bid. We will hopefully see Dolphins Davon Godchaux sitting around this area in the ADPs next year if my “take” that he is a “Jarrett clone” hits as it looks like it is. Godchaux is primed for a breakout in 2018.
- Best of luck to the Tier 1 area. Hard for me to do so with what I see as red flags in effort versus his talent, and now the man has been paid. After all, I’m here to help, and is $17 million for 1 year a motivational tool or is it enough to say he made it as many players do and just ride off into the sunset. I’ll risk not drafting him or suggesting him at this point.
Defensive Back ADP Review
- There is a reason you won’t see me making “takes” on the cornerbacks other than this sentence in this article.
- As much as I promoted Budda Baker last year we have to keep in mind that the scheme change and new coaching staff can and will likely change his role. The hybrid LB/SS thing they had going on for the last few seasons that made Tony Jefferson and Tyvon Branch stud IDP plays maybe over. He’ll be good I’m sure, but 4th off the board for me with the change of the situation is a bit much until further notice.
- Derwin James that high as well is really just jumping to conclusions really early here. Granted the “upside” is there but over so many other known solid options?
- I understand the whole thing with higher ranked guys for an actual potential for higher production.
- Oddly enough with Tyrann Mathieu (average in 2017?), we see the same situation as Harrison. Just add in a bit more injury concerns, way bit more.
- Really interesting as well to see Karl Joseph above a few others on the list. It’s feeling like there is something I should know with John Gruden taking over. Show me another year and don’t trail off as a prime SS as the season unfolds, then I’ll believe. Risking not selecting him this high, personally.
- “a rookie” in Tremaine Edmunds manning the middle, Poyer and Hyde just might top their last year’s production as they support the youngsters.
- Jabrill Peppers owners have some serious faith that the Browns following through and he is moved to his more natural SS spot in 2018 from the FS in 2017. It’s almost like looking at the risk a rookie holds in his second season for me personally.
- Sean Davis should be looking over his shoulder the whole season with rookie Terrell Edmunds falling into the Steelers lap. Period. Looking like I missed on suggesting he would improve in 2018. You’ll likely see when or if you click to learn about the next player. Can’t “take” on them all perfect, I guess. Supposing that his production by default with Shazier out last season may be a thing of the past.
- One thing is for certain, I’d take my breakout candidate
This is full redraft ADPs, if you’re wondering, and as the summer rolls by and then the main camps hit with pre-season on its way we will be touching base again to see what has transpired with the ADPs.
Hopefully this time thru the lists my personal takes have helped and not just made you mad when I didn’t show the right kind of love towards a player you might adore. Just keep this in mind please if your upset, if we all thoughts alike, fantasy football would be so boring.
Thanks as always for reading and feel free as always to reach out to me on Twitter at @HBogart27 for anything IDP.