Do not go dumpster diving just yet…the bargain bin could pay off nicely! These players that are falling are great IDP values.
We are so close to the start of the season I could shit a brick from sheer excitement. If you’re like me and most of the staff here at the IDP Guys you’ve been drafting a ton the last few days and probably have a few more to go. We did a segment on the podcast talking about guys we have multiple shares of because their ADP has been favorable and we’ve gotten them at a value.
So I decided to take that information from the segment and get it out in article form so you guys can reference it for upcoming drafts and take advantage of some of these deals in your IDP leagues. We’ll do this by position and work our way through what I’ve seen so far. The ADP information on these guys was taken from Punch Drunk Wonderland ( @PDwonderland ) which is a site that did a ton of IDP mocks in the offseason and created a solid top 100 IDP list from the results of those multiple mock drafts.
These are all guys that are deals and not just fliers or investments, just some guys I’ve seen personally in drafts so far that are falling for one reason or another and are great values at their current ADP.
This is a position that you really need to nail since they are your main point-getters, that being said there will always be developments during the season (injuries, suspensions, etc) that will allow you to pick up guys that will finish the year with LB1 or LB2 type numbers so don’t sweat it if this part of your draft doesn’t work out exactly like you want. Anyways here are the guys I’m seeing are great deals so far this drafting season.
–Avery Williamson is listed as the 56th IDP player taken off the board by PD Wonderland, and in drafts that aren’t filled with fellow IDP Guys writers, I’m seeing him go that late or later. Most people just aren’t tuned into his current situation and expect last years numbers out of him. He’s taking over Demario Davis ILB slot in the Jets 3-4 defense where Davis put up 135 combined tackles last season.
In terms of defensive snaps, he only played 60% of them for the Titans last year and looks to see a ton more on the Jets this year. Plus the Jets offense doesn’t look to be that great and the chances of a rookie QB or McCown (just as bad as a rookie IMHO) playing the entire year are high. That defense will be on the field constantly and the skies the limit for Williamson.
–Brandon Marshall, the good one (LB, Broncos), is a solid LB2 who is currently being drafted as the 73rd overall IDP player. He consistently puts up 100+ tackle seasons and is going very late in all the drafts I’ve been in so far. He is a set-and-forget linebacker who will rarely if ever let you down. At that price, he’s one hell of a bargain.
–KJ Wright is cut from the same cloth as Marshall, always been a very consistent LB2 that rarely has a bad game for you. Currently going as the 53rd overall IDP player and probably later than that in leagues that aren’t packed with IDP experts he’s a solid LB2 you can grab later on in most IDP drafts. Don’t let having Wagner next to him scare you away, KJ Wright has always been extremely reliable as an LB2.
–Eric Kendricks is a Tier 1 LB who is currently going as the 27th overall IDP player. Once you get through the super studs (Wagner, Jones, Mosley, Brown, Kuechly, etc) you should have Kendricks still available. He is an end tier 1 guy who puts up around 110 tackles a year and always has good intangible points as well. He’ll get you the extra pass defense, INT or sack points as well. Also very reliable with a great floor I have been taking Kendricks in a ton of places at his current price.
–Wesley Woodyard had Tier 1 points last year but has always been a solid Tier 2 guy with upside. Currently being drafted as the 59th overall IDP player he had 124 combined tackles last season and always puts up intangible points as well. He’s good for three to five sacks a year most seasons and around five pass deflections. Usually, he grabs an INT or two also.
Most years he hovers around the 100 combined tackle count but his upside and current price make him a solid guy to draft this year. With Avery Williamson departing, unless Rashaan Evans is the second coming of London Fletcher, there will be at least this season and maybe longer where Woodyard will be the main IDP point producer on that defense, Buy buy buy!
Just like Linebacker you don’t need to jump off a bridge if you screw up your safeties at draft time, there will be plenty of developments during the season that produces startable safeties. Also, I’ve noticed in most of the leagues I’m in that the waiver wire has by far more safeties that are playable game 1 week 1 than any of other position. Still, it’s always good to lock down this position so here are some deals.
-Both Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer had stellar seasons last year and are currently going 68th (Hyde) and 69th (Poyer) in IDP drafts. Even if they only maintained their stats from last year, and I’m of the mind that they will certainly do that and probably improve on them, you’ll be getting the end of Tier 1 safety production from a couple guys nearly 70 picks into the IDP portion of a draft.
With the Bills linebackers this season being so young and inexperienced and the offense looking even worse than last year (that is somehow possible lol) the odds are great that both of these Bills safeties will be highly involved this year and will probably see even more defensive snaps than they did last season. So don’t worry if you miss out on Collins, Jones or Neal. Poyer and Hyde got you covered.
–John Johnson had a stellar rookie year for the Rams and looks to improve on those numbers by taking advantage of the inexperienced linebackers corps in front of him this season and cleaning up a ton of plays for some easy IDP points. My concern is that the Rams offense somehow improved in the offseason (Cooks signing) so Johnson may see fewer defensive snaps, however since he’s not even being taken in the top 100 IDP players you can get him super late and use him as a flyer or backup if needed. With a floor of around 70 combined tackles, that’s one hell of a backup player.
–Jaquiski Tartt is currently being selected at the 91st overall IDP player off the board. He was on pace for a 97 combined tackle season last year before getting injured and was averaging 6.1 tackles a game. That is a solid end of Tier 1 type stats and as long as he stays healthy Tartt should be a great Safety2 for your squad that you can take super late.
–Bradley McDougald and Clayton Geathers are both currently looking like they will be the strong safeties for the Seahawks and Colts this season and are both not being selected in the top 100 IDP players off the board. If Geathers can come close to the numbers Mathias Farley put up last season as the fill-in strong safety you’ll be looking at around 90 combined tackles from a guy no ones drafting. Sign me up for that. McDougald filled in for Kam Chancellor last season and had great stats doing so.
With Chancellor’s retirement, he looks to take that job full time from now on. Keep an eye on that situation because it’s not set in stone yet but literally, no one is drafting McDougald so you can easily grab him super late and hold onto him as a high upside flier.
–Budda Baker is the strong safety for the Arizona Cardinals and is going as the 35th IDP player selected this year. I’ve seen him go far later than that in Yahoo drafts since they have him projected at zero points for the year (lol) and if you sort by last years stats he only started a few games towards the end of the year so he ends up way down the list and most people don’t spot him. Keep him in mind and pull the trigger, he’s going to be a monster this year.
This is a rough one if you mess it up so I would recommend grabbing a top tier guy as soon as you safely can in your draft. Make sure you have at least one of the heavy hitters (Bosa, Mack, Jones, Campbell, Lawrence, Watt, Garett, etc) and then maybe grab one of these guys as your DE2 later one.
Personally, I would try and get both DE slots filled with Tier 1 guys then grab a lower tiered guy later on for an injury or bye week replacement. This is a position that is tough to stream so make sure you’re not the guy on the outside looking in on the guys with Bosa and Lawrence as their DE 1 and 2.
–Cameron Jordan is going as the 21st overall IDP player selected so he’s not exactly falling a lot. However, what I am seeing is that after the usual suspects are taken No. 1 and No. 2, (Bosa and Mack) the run on defensive line has been stalling out. Many guys have been jumping WAY ahead to grab either Bosa or Mack, but the actual run on defensive ends does not happen until many rounds later.
My point here is don’t panic if you can’t get either of those two. There are plenty of great defensive ends out there. Personally, I’ve been grabbing Cameron Jordan in a ton of places because he’s not going as high as Bosa, Mack and the crazy guy who grabs JJ Watt. Jordan is solid and damn close to a lock for double-digit sacks and a ton of tackles this year, plus the drafting of Marcus Davenport means the opposing offensive lines will have someone else to concentrate on besides just Jordan. That will help his numbers. He may not be the greatest value ADP-wise, but you can get him a bit later and still have a solid Tier 1 guy.
–Cameron Heyward is not being selected in the top 100 at all and has always been a great producer. He will get you around 50 combined tackles and 5 sacks a season with a lot of upside (12 sacks last year!). And if you play in Yahoo leagues he is currently listed as a DE/DT so he can fill both spots which is always a huge advantage when you find guys like that. His flexibility and consistent production are attractive and the price is right.
–Frank Clark is the 67th IDP player off the board this year and is the last of the Legion Of Boom still on their defensive line. He’s good for at least 35 combined tackles and 8 sacks a year with upside (9 sacks in 2016, 10 in 2017). He’s a great guy to grab as your second or third DE and I’ve seen him falling far enough to be a bench stash if you’re in a league with guys who aren’t IDP sharks.
The dropoff from the best defensive tackles to the worst is super sharp. However, if you can grab one of the top guys they are plenty of DT2 type guys out there who will get you consistent points. I rode Micheal Brockers last year and got steady points from him nearly every week. This position doesn’t stream well but there are a bunch of playable guys out there that won’t be drafted immediately.
–Linval Joseph finished as the 3rd best IDP DT in most of my leagues last year, depends on scoring, and is currently NOT being selected in the top 100 IDP players. He’s good for 60 combined tackles and 3 sacks a year like clockwork. Those are awesome numbers for a defensive tackle. If you miss out on Snacks Harrison or DeForest Buckner don’t worry about it there are a bunch of defensive tackles out there that will have good production starting with Linval Joseph.
–Sheldon Richardson left the Jets and headed to the Vikings in the offseason in a case of the rich get richer. He is not being selected in the top 100 IDP players at all and joins the defensive line of Linval Joseph, Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter. He’s in a great situation to succeed and has been good for about 50 combined tackles and 2.5 sacks a year during his career.
The projections I’ve looked at have him at that and a whole lot more in the better situation he’s in this season. At his current ADP, (not being drafted at all in most places) he is a steal for your DT2 slot or your bench. What I’ve been doing is drafting both Linval and Sheldon then trading Linval to league mates and banking on the increase in Richardsons stats that the projections have him at for this year.
–Davon Godchaux is the heir apparent to N’Damakong Suh after his departure from Miami. Our feature writer Gary has been high on Godchaux this whole offseason and with him not being drafted at all in the top 100 IDP players you can get him as your last pick or off the waiver wire in most leagues.
For a guy with a super high PAPS score (Gary’s system of predicting how many snaps it takes to make a play) and a great price tag, you may as well roll the dice with us and pick him up. You could be grabbing the guy that soaks up all the production Suh had in Miami for nothing more than a few seconds and the click of your mouse. Sold.
Good luck in your upcoming drafts and keep checking in with us for the latest IDP information.