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  • Buy, Sell, or Keep: Denver Broncos Offense

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    Super Bowl LVI has yet to be played, but you are antsy to get your 2022 roster changed in a positive direction. I am going to give you some team-by-team Buy/Sell/Keep options.


    In this “Buy/Sell/Keep” series, I will be highlighting players based on team. First up, the Denver Broncos Offense.

    Buy

    Courtland Sutton, WR

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    I’m starting this series with an offensive player that I am advising all to buy — WR Courtland Sutton. Sutton was a second-round draft choice by the Broncos in 2018 and will be entering his second season post-ACL surgery.

    Having just signed a four-year extension worth $60.8 million — $34.9 million of which is in guaranteed money — Sutton is set as an integral part of the team.

    There is a Green Bay Packers WR who has put down some eerily similar numbers to Sutton, that would lead you to say that Sutton could break out in 2022. Sutton is 6′ 4″ and weighs 216 lbs. Davante Adams is 6′ 1″ and weighs 215 lbs. Sutton ran a 4.54 40-yard dash. Adams ran a 4.56 40-yard dash.

    Sutton is going into his fifth year in the NFL. Adams had his breakout season during his fifth year in the NFL. Sutton has a new Head Coach and play-caller — Nathaniel Hackett — that says he will throw the ball downfield. Hackett was the Offensive Coordinator for three of the four of Adams’ most productive years.

    Is the writing on the wall? I think so. The Broncos will have a QB that throws the ball down the field instead of checking it down for two-three yards 90% of the time. Whether the QB is Drew Lock, Kenny Pickett, or Aaron Rodgers, Sutton will feast. You don’t have to pay an incredible amount right now either, as he only had 58 catches for 776 yards this year.

    Sutton probably won’t be Adams, but he could be a solid top 12 WR each and every week. Buy him now before word gets out that the breakout season is on deck.

    Sell

    Noah Fant, TE

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    The Denver Bronco offensive player that I am advising to sell right now is TE Noah Fant. So, you all think I am crazy? Fant has the draft capital — he was drafted in the first round of the 2019 NFL draft — and the size at 6′ 4″ and 249 lbs. With the speed of a WR, Fant’s 4.5 40-yard dash time is appealing. In his very nice rookie season, he had 40 receptions on 66 targets for 562 yards and 3 TDs.

    You ask me why you should sell him then? Let’s first look at his second and third-year statistics to see how much he improved from his rookie season. In Fant’s second year, he had 62 catches on 93 targets for 673 yards and 3 TDs. Last year, he had 68 catches on 90 targets for 670 yards and 4 TDs.

    To top it off, Hackett and his Packer offense did not heavily target his TEs over the past three years. The Packers combined TE stats were 72 catches on 99 targets for 732 yards and 4 TDs last year. In 2020, the Packers combined TE stats had 65 catches on 82 targets for 731 yards and 15 TDs.

    In 2019, Hackett’s first year with the Packers, the TEs combined for 25 catches on 34 targets for 256 yards and 2 TDs. Enter Albert Okwuegbunam, who was drafted by the Broncos in the fourth round of the 2020 NFL draft. Okwuegbunam has created a spot for himself in the Bronco offense. Last year, he had 33 catches on 40 targets for 330 yards and 2 TDs.

    Fantasy football owners hate the RBBC approach of NFL teams. Now, we have to deal with the TEBC in Denver. Fant can most likely get top dollar in your league as there just aren’t that many stud TEs. Sell him now before owners start reading about the Broncos TEBC approach and Hackett’s overall TE usage.

    Keep

    Javonte Williams, RB

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    The Denver Broncos offensive player that I am advising to keep right now is RB-Javonte Williams. Williams was a second-round draft pick in last year’s NFL draft. He has the prototype size of an NFL RB at 5′ 10″ and 220 lbs. and a 4.57 40 yard dash time.

    In Williams’ rookie season, he split backfield carries exactly 50/50 with Melvin Gordon, each with 203 carries. They also split the yardage 50/50 at just over 900 yards each. Gordon won the TD runs 8 to 4. Williams won the catches/yards battle by 43 catches for 316 yards to Gordon’s 28 catches for 213 yards.

    The hardest ball carrier to bring in 2021, according to NFL stats, was Williams. He forced 35 missed tackles in his rookie season. The next closest player was at 21 forced missed tackles.

    Why would a fantasy football owner want to keep an RB in the dreaded RBBC backfield? Here are a couple of reasons why. Gordon is a free agent after this season. There is a chance that he could re-sign with the Broncos, and he has stated publicly that his desire is to return to Denver.

    In Week 13 against the Kansas City Chiefs, Williams showed what he can do as the bell cow RB. In that game, with Gordon out with injury, Williams had 23 carries for 102 yards and 6 catches off of 9 targets for 76 yards and a TD. If you are lucky enough to have Williams on your roster, do not let him get away.


    Thank you for checking out the first article in my Buy/Sell/Keep series! You can read all of my articles on my IDP Guys author page. Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @OldMan_ff and @IDPGuys (we have offense too) and please check out our website at idpguys.org.

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