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  • Buy, Sell, or Keep: IDP Dynasty Fantasy Football

    Jersey Giveaway
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    The fantasy off-season is upon us. It is time for us to reflect on some IDP players and assess what to do with them moving forward.


    It is the off-season for fantasy football. Or is it? When you are the manager of a dynasty team, no matter if it is traditional offense or IDP, there truly never is an off-season.

    Whether it be by playoff elimination or a disastrous season plagued by injuries to one’s roster, as soon as your team’s season is ended, it’s would be wise to assess your roster. See how it can be improved to increase chances at a higher success rate next season. 

    I reviewed the top 10 finishers at every IDP position from the past three seasons according to FantasyPros scoring. I noted the players who had appeared in the top-10 in more than one season. 

    In this article, I will take a closer look at a few players in each of the IDP categories and deduce what you should currently do with them (buy, sell, or hold) if they are on your roster. If not, whether or not you should make that player a target for your roster in succeeding seasons. All stats are per PFF.

    IDP players with multiple Top-10 finishes in the past three seasons:

    Defensive Linemen

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    Cameron Heyward, DL, Pittsburgh Steelers

    With eight years of 800 or more snaps logged, Heyward has put up consistent numbers for dynasty teams.

    The Steelers’ defensive line is set up for success. They have the single-season sack record holder on the edge in T.J. Watt (another player with multiple top 10 finishes) on one side of Heyward and Alex Highsmith (52 tackles and 9 sacks in 2021) on the other side of him. 

    Future Outlook

    Heyward will be an unrestricted free agent in 2026. The defensive lineman with the second-most snaps on the interior (Chris Wormley) will be in the final year of his contract next season.

    Although it is not a significant need, the Steelers may add some youth to the interior in the coming years. Depending on when they do it and how much draft capital they invest into the position, it could affect Heyward’s snap count and, ultimately, his value going forward.

    Let’s look at some numbers: Heyward totaled seven or more pressures and had five or more tackles in three games in 2021. He has never scored a defensive touchdown and has averaged 8.6 sacks in the past three seasons.

    What is the Move?

    If someone in your league is selling Heyward because of his age, I wouldn’t be opposed to sparking up a conversation with them. Be warned, however, with his current second-place finish in 2021, Heyward’s asking price may be higher than you are willing to spend.

    Heyward could be at the peak of his value, and I genuinely feel he will be a solid asset for a dynasty roster for the next two to three seasons. 

    If you currently have Heyward rostered, I would hold for another season in both IDP and leagues with players on both sides of the ball. Unless I was offered a hefty haul, I am holding Heyward unless I am amid a rebuild.

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    Sam Hubbard, Edge, Cincinnati Bengals

    Hubbard led the Bengals in pass-rush snaps this season with 500 and 36. With that 61% of his snap count, he sacked and hit the quarterback nine times apiece. Hubbard also tallied his most pressures in a single season in 2021 with 55.

    The past three seasons have had their share of highs and lows for Hubbard. He finished 10th overall in scoring in 2019 (only his second season). However, in mid-October of 2020, Hubbard was placed on injured reserve for an elbow injury, thus affecting his numbers, sliding him down to 31st overall in scoring. Flash forward to 2021, and Hubbard finished as the DL10.

    Future Outlook

    Time is definitely on Hubbard’s side, as he won’t be an unrestricted free agent until 2026. Trey Hendrickson is also on the other side of Hubbard, so opposing offensive lines have their hands full.

    The Bengals’ lead interior defensive lineman Larry Ogunjobi and fellow interior defensive lineman B.J. Hill will be free agents this off-season. Ogunjobi was placed on injured reserve after the Bengals Wild Card win. I am interested to see if they re-sign or look to the draft for help on the inside.

    What is the Move?

    Aside from injury, I don’t believe anything will affect Hubbard’s snaps or performance going forward. Therefore, Sam Hubbard is a massive BUY for me in all leagues. I would attempt to try and slide him in a package deal in league with players on both sides of the ball. Also, I would give a back end first in 2022 in IDP Dynasty leagues.

     

    Linebackers

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    Blake Martinez, New York Giants

    “Consistency” comes to mind when someone mentions Blake Martinez. He has finished in the top 10 twice (2019 and 2020). Unfortunately, Martinez tore his ACL in a non-contact injury at the beginning of the game in the week three Giants loss to Atlanta.

    Until his injury in 2021, Martinez had logged over 970 snaps and finished every season with 97 or more tackles in all but his rookie season in 2016.

    Future Outlook

    Reggie Ragland was Martinez’s replacement immediately post-injury. Following that, Benardrick McKinney saw some time during the end of the season. I expect Martinez to have a fair shot at earning his job back. With that said, I have been seeing the Giants mocked to draft a linebacker in the first round of the 2022 draft.

    What is the Move?

    At this point, I would see Martinez at his lowest possible value. So, wherever I have him rostered, I am holding. I don’t believe you will get in return what you expect from a healthy Martinez back from any trade at this point.

    It’s probably best to keep him on the IR and wait it out until he can get back on the field. If he does make a recovery, Blake Martinez is only on contract for one more season in New York, making the waters even murkier for the twenty-eight-year-old interior linebacker.

    I wouldn’t trade for him, and I am not sure he would be on waivers anywhere. If Martinez is dropped, I would immediately find a spot on my roster for him. It comes down to how confident you are with Martinez coming off the injury. If you believe in his ability as a player, then may I suggest working him into a deal in leagues with players on both sides of the ball.

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    Bobby Wagner, Seattle Seahawks

    Bobby Wagner, AKA “The Tackling Machine,” has finished the past three seasons in the top 10 at the fantasy football linebacker position. Wagner has averaged over 1,000 snaps in the past three seasons. He also had three games with double-digit solo tackles in 2021.

    Bobby Wagner has never been an enormous sack guy, but his tackling numbers are off the charts as he has only once in his career finished with double-digit solo tackles. (In 2014, he finished with 98.) Wagner is the heart of his defense, and Jordyn Brooks (who is going into year three of his rookie deal in 2022) seems to be a nice pairing with Wagner in Seattle’s linebacker corps.

    It appears at this moment that head coach Pete Carroll is staying put through the 2022 season, so I expect Wagner to receive the same load of work next season.

    Future Outlook

    The Seahawks could use another linebacker but do not have a first-round selection, so a day two linebacker in the second or third rounds could be in the cards for Seattle. However, I don’t anticipate any threat to Wagner’s position as the defensive leader.

    Jamal Adams was injured in Week 13, and that shoulder injury had Adams sidelined for the duration of the season. Most of the other players in the secondary have expiring contracts this off-season, although Adams is set to return for Seattle in 2022.

    What is the Move?

    The 31-year-old is in the final year of his contract in 2022, and though he seems like he has more in the tank, I feel like his value will be steep for what you would receive back in a dynasty IDP league. I wouldn’t mind paying up if you would like to push and have the draft capital to spend.

    Wagner does seem like a hometown player that fills the seats, so Seattle may be willing to give him a player-friendly deal, and you could get solid production for the next one to three years. I wouldn’t expect any top-five finishes. However, I feel that the seventh to 20th overall range would be more of where he will finish in fantasy in the future.

     

    Defensive Backs

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    Harrison Smith, S, Minnesota Vikings

    In 2021 Smith logged just under 1,050 snaps, 111 combined tackles, and 8 pressures, but finished with three sacks and three hits.

    Of Smith’s snaps, 58% were in pass coverage, and he allowed a 71.4% catch rate on 28 targets. Smith did not allow any touchdowns in coverage, broke up five passes, and had one interception.

    Future Outlook

    The Vikings are undergoing a coaching change, and a few starting players on the defense are free agents this off-season. Camryn Bynum and Cameron Dantzler are the other main defensive backs set to return to Minnesota in 2022. Harrison Smith is 32 years old and is under contract with the Minnesota Vikings through the 2025 season.

    What is the Move?

    With expiring contracts all over the secondary, I expect the Vikings to add new faces this off-season. Smith is a safe lock and will continue to produce for the next one to three seasons (depending on the coaching situation). Regardless, Smith has time left in his tank, and for this reason, I am holding Harrison Smith in all leagues. 


    A thousand thank yous for reading my first article here at IDP Guys. If you enjoyed it, be sure to read all my work on my IDP Guys author page, and follow me on Twitter @Caliking49er17

    Mason Riney

    Proud father, Army veteran, and lover of all that is football. IDP is my main focus, but I also enjoy scouting collegiate players and rank on Fantasypros.
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