https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=UA-121674386-1
Dynasty Trade Calculator

Dynasty: Sell High on Davante Adams

Dynasty Trade Calculator
Embed from Getty Images

The Green Bay Packers traded All-Pro wide receiver, Davante Adams, to the Las Vegas Raiders in a blockbuster deal.


ESPN’s Adam Schefter was the first to report that the Green Bay Packers traded WR Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders. The Packers placed a franchise tag on Adams early on in the offseason. Green Bay traded Adams after realizing they were unlikely to come to terms with Adams on a long-term deal.

The Raiders sent Green Bay their 2022 first-round (22nd overall) and second-round (53rd overall) picks for Adams. Adams is coming off of his second straight season being named First-Team All-Pro and the fifth straight season being voted to the Pro Bowl.

Adams is widely regarded as the best wide receiver in football and his statistics back him up. This past season he caught 123 of his 169 targets for 1,559 receiving yards and 11 receiving touchdowns. Those numbers were career highs receptions and receiving yards for Adams. This is the third time in four seasons that he put up a stat line like that.

Adams’ consistent production solidified him as the first WR drafted in redraft fantasy leagues the past couple of seasons. He has also been a consistent top-10 wide receiver in dynasty formats as well. Now that Adams will be joining a new team his, fantasy value will go through a dramatic change. Possibly for the worst.

Here is why Fantasy Managers should try to sell high on Davante Adams in dynasty leagues.

Embed from Getty Images

Target Shares Will Decline

Part of why Adams has been a great fantasy wide receiver over the last couple of years has been because of his high target share in Green Bay. According to FantasyPros, Adams has been top-two in the league in target share among pass-catchers in each of the last four seasons.

This past season, Adams averaged 10.6 targets per game which were tied with Steelers Pro Bowl receiver Diontae Johnson and only trailing Offensive Player of the Year and Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp. Adams also had a 29.7% target share for the Packers offense this past season, second in the league behind Kupp.

It has been no secret that Adams became Aaron Rodgers‘ favorite receiver once Jordy Nelson was cut in 2018. Despite being an extremely talented wide receiver, part of why Adams’ target share has been massive is because the next Packers’ next best options as primary pass catchers are Allen Lazard, Marques Valdes-Scantling, and Robert Tonyan.

Stiff Competition

Even though Adams will be the number one wide receiver for Las Vegas, he will now have stiffer competition for targets. Adams is joining an offense that features two players — Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow — who both have received massive target shares in the Raiders offense recently.

Waller was viewed as the team’s top pass catcher coming into last season. He made the Pro Bowl the year prior posting over 100 catches, almost 1,200 receiving yards, and 9 receiving touchdowns. This past season, Waller caught 55 of 93 targets for 665 receiving yards and 2 receiving touchdowns in 11 games.

Renfrow made his first Pro Bowl after he broke out a legitimate weapon for this offense this past year. He caught 103 of 128 targets for 1,038 receiving yards and 9 receiving touchdowns. Renfrow was Derek Carr‘s best receiver late in the season following Henry Ruggs‘ release from the team and Waller’s injury.

Waller had a 14.8% target share (in the games he played) and Renfrow had a 20.4% target share last season. This is must larger than Adams’ former teammates who had 11% target shares or less a season ago. It is realistic to expect both Renfrow and Waller’s target share to decline next season.

However, Adams’ target share should take a huge dip. For the first time in a few years, he will have Pro Bowl-caliber teammates who will demand targets for this offense to function at a high level.

Embed from Getty Images

Losing His MVP Caliber Quarterback

The great thing about Adams landing in Vegas is that he doesn’t need to establish chemistry with Raiders QB Derek Carr. Both Carr and Adams were teammates at Fresno State from 2011to 2013. Their success with each other played a huge role in why they were both selected in the second round of the 2014 Draft.

As great of a story as it is, Adams will have a downgrade at quarterback now that he is catching passes from Carr. Now, Derek Carr is not a scrub quarterback. This past season many were sold on the idea that Carr is not a middle-of-the-pack quarterback. He is among the top-10 or top-12 quarterbacks, depending on who is asked.

Carr showed great leadership as he played a key role in helping the Raiders overachieve their way to the playoffs, despite firing their head coach Jon Gruden and cutting both 2020 first-round picks Henry Ruggs and Damon Arnette in the middle of the season.

Earlier in his career, Carr was a Pro Bowl quarterback who was voted to three consecutive teams in 2015-2017. This past season, he completed 68.4% of his passes. That gave Carr a career-high 4,804 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. He has as solid of a case as anybody to be a Pro Bowl alternate for the AFC.

Breaking Up is Hard to Do

Even though Carr is a talented quarterback, he is not as talented as who Adams is leaving behind — Aaron Rodgers. In the last two seasons, Rodgers has won back-to-back MVP awards. In 2021, he completed 68.9% of his passes. That totals 4,115 passing yards, 37 passing touchdowns, and four interceptions in only 16 games.

Adams’ production will decrease because he is joining a quarterback who does not put the team in as many great positions to put up great stats or put up the same production. That being said, the addition of Adams should boost the fantasy value of Derek Carr. Vegas is adding a First-Team All-Pro caliber wide receiver to an offense that already features two Pro Bowl pass catchers.

Embed from Getty Images

Davante Adams is Almost 30 Years Old

No one is discussing enough how much Davante Adams’ age factors into things. Green Bay had to make a tough decision on whether to give Adams enough guaranteed money for him to stay or trade their best pass catcher.

They ultimately decided to trade Adams. A large factor that could have played into the decision was his age. It is worth noting that Green Bay offered the five-year, $140 million deal the Raiders ended up taking. However, Green Bay may have felt it was better to maximize Adams’ value than offer to pay a wide receiver $28 million a year who will be 30 late next season.

When it comes to most NFL position players, one thing that could scare a team is age. Most times, when a player hits 30 years old, they tend to slow down and start to decline in production. This can also lead to more injuries and a player being unable to stay on the field for a full regular season.

In recent years, receivers like DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, T.Y. Hilton, and A.J. Green have started to slow down due to age. Not too long ago, they could have all been in the conversation for the best five receivers in football. However, it appears Father Time has caught up with them.

Father Time Plays Favorites

Turning 30 years old for a wide receiver isn’t usually as dramatic as it is for a running back. Depending on injuries, WRs tend to decline slightly over time. They can still produce at a level near their prime during a necessary moment.

Very few receivers are like Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Brown, and Adam Thielen and could produce at a high level once they pass the age of 30.

Adams hasn’t shown any major signs of a decline over the last two seasons. But this is something for fantasy managers who have Adams as a centerpiece on their roster to consider very soon. You may have to look at his age and factor that into whether to move on from him before he plays his first snap in Las Vegas.

Embed from Getty Images

A player to target in a Davante Adams trade

For dynasty managers who want to win now but maximize Adams’ value, they should target another top-10 or top-15 wide receiver. Getting a WR1-caliber player in a package including a draft pick or another piece would be a great haul for Adams.

One wide receiver whose stock has declined this offseason is Seattle Seahawks’ wide receiver D.K. Metcalf. His value has currently taken a hit because of the injuries he dealt with this past season. However, Metcalf has shown to be an elite fantasy WR1 when healthy.

Since Russell Wilson was traded to Denver, Metcalf might fall from a top-10 to a top-25 receiver on a week-to-week basis. Even though his stock is low right now, target Metcalf — he is still a freak athlete at 24 years old. And he is one of the best wide receivers in the league when healthy.

It is uncertain who will be the quarterback for Seattle next season, but it is likely that Metcalf will have an upgrade. Seattle will either upgrade the position or Metcalf could be playing with a new team with a better quarterback situation.

There is some risk in trading for Metcalf, especially for the immediate future because at this point Seattle is looking at Drew Lock, Baker Mayfield, or a rookie quarterback as their potential starter next season. But it could pay off in a major way in the long run if he finds himself back in a situation with a better-than-average quarterback.

Summary

Davante Adams should still be a top-10 wide receiver in redraft leagues that will draft likely draft this summer. He could also still be a great piece of a championship-caliber dynasty team next season. But there are plenty of reasons for a fantasy manager in dynasty leagues to maximize his value by trading and continue growing their roster.

The fantasy football community may still look at Adams as the best wide receiver in fantasy. That could land a fantasy manager likely a package of assets including valuable starters, draft picks, or developing young players who could break out in the near future. Since the draft keeps producing great wide receivers every year, it may be smart to target a position of less depth on your roster and around the league.

It may be hard to part with a player like Adams who has been an elite fantasy star over the last half-decade. However, when considering his likely decreased target share, the decline in quarterback play, and age, his value may never be higher than it is right now.


Thank you for checking out my piece! You can find all of my work on my IDP Guys author page. Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @Chris_Thomas98 and @IDPGuys (we have offense too). Please check out our website at idpguys.org. and subscribe to our IDP Guys Youtube page!

  • Back to top
    %d bloggers like this: