From The Shadow “Takes”: Flipping LB J.Bentley, Trusting LB R.Smith, And Pick One, Moore, Young, or Lee

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We cover a few “Hot Topics” including one with strategy played out, depending on Rookies as well as who has the most upside with recent “upside”.


Personal definition of a “take”: Any information applied to a topic and shared from a personal perspective. In these cases, anything concerning a Fantasy Football topic.

Shadow “Take’s”

Often I receive emails or private chats on Twitter from fantasy football owners asking me a general question on my thoughts about their personal situations pertaining to many different topics. These can range from trade talks, drafting, roster structure, to just everyday football. As I reply with my “take” to try to assist them I normally find myself using the same methods of deduction in doing so that I’ve developed over the countless years.

It really does not matter the players involved or the exact situation at hand that determines the process I may choose, but it is the simple idea that the methods work in general for each given case I’m presented. And after repeatedly using those methods and process for some time now, I would like to share via From The Shadow “Takes”.

Applying what goes on behind closed doors or out back in the alley of Fantasy Football as a tool. The overall thinking here is that there are other owners who may have a similar situation or dilemmas but not willing to reach out to ask. And that by simply reading the processes that happen in private will reach out and assist other people. I hope these and all that may follow help make me as well as anyone else reading them a better gamer.

There is no “fluffing” of content, it is as raw as it was at the time. Both in the “take” as well as the wording and slang as it is presented. We are not writing a proper novel here.

Acknowledgment: Before we begin I would like to thank the first two gentlemen for constantly keeping me on my toes. They happen to be brothers and have always engaged me with great questions and conversations. It also happens to be that @RobSoniNBA is a Contributor or http://thefiveby5.com  on all things NBA. So even if I don’t actually have the time to follow-up on the NBA, I can tell you from our private conversations the guy is on cue and if you do want to keep up on the NBA I suggest you give him a follow and check out his no-nonsense approach I have had the pleasure of knowing over the past eight months or so.

I’ll also recommend the same for @RICKYSETH. He may not be affiliated to a certain site but his same no-nonsense ways certainly are prevalent as well in his conversations as well as his Twitter posting. I’ve enjoyed the time I’ve interacted with both these gentleman and appreciate what the bring to the table. Thanks, fellas, keep challenging me on everything IDP.


Via Private Message with @RICKYSETH AUG 18

  • @RICKYSETH: Hearing pats might be playing the rookie (Ja’Whaun) Bentley at MLB. Have you heard similar, or different?
  • Tipster: Similar, But there is one reason I don’t ever suggest or promote the Pats if I have other things going on.
  • @RICKYSETH: The depths onto which IDP takes, you are so fun.
  • Tipster: Other than 1 season of Collins, overall their LBs are crap as starting options in IDP and always been a pain. And Thx!
  • @RICKYSETH: Hmm who scores for the pats IDP wise then? Points have to Go someplace I would think
  • Tipster: The last really great option at LB for them was like 5 yrs ago when they had Mayo in the middle. The history over the last few yrs, they have not produced an LB higher than a tier 2 in Collins one yr. But if there is a tier one lb lurking for the Pats in the 2018 season it’s going to shock the hell out of me…lol Sorry, I don’t have the time to expand more on the topic, I’m swamped at the moment.
  • @RICKYSETH: All good Gary, just checking in. Will keep my eye out.
  • Tipster: And thx, I’ve got more hits than I know what to do with, so I have to stick with what I feel I can promote with a sure clear mind. Please, if u hear more on him, let me know. Thx, cya.
  • @RICKYSETH: Sounds good, likewise.

Day Later

  • @RICKYSETH: Aug 19

  • Tipster: Thx, I’ll read in the morning I hope, got my plate full but will try, goodnight.
  • @RICKYSETH: sounds good, later Gary

Day Later

  • Tipster: Funny, woke up this morning with someone asking about Bentley, simply passing on the article, I have no call as the Pats are not know for those top-tier guys the last few yrs because of rotation. Thx, Bently is on my IDPar, hope u don’t mind if I talk about him at some point. Aug 20
  • Don’t mind at all, just trying to find those gems!
  • Tipster: Looks like ya did there, man I wish they use the LBs in less of a rotation, but a great topic for me to talk about after deeper research, thx.
  • For sure, hopefully, he is one guy that sticks and stays on the field

Couple days later

  • Do you think Jaylen Smith is worth trading a 1 for Aug 22
  • Tipster: In a heartbeat, dudes shooting up in my rankings, I’ve been throwing him love all year while everyone was focused on the rookie and it’s playing out, dudes shooting to the top so far in preseason and how he is just tearing it up all around. I’d even throw a little more to get the job done and him on my roster. Wish I could get him in my flagship league, but the person writes FF also and knows what they got…lol
  • He has been a tantalizing guy for me lately. Isn’t that the worst, I want to share your stuff with my league mates But it’s like shooting my self in the foot lol
  • Tipster: That’s actually a topic I was going to either cover in my next pod or live. About sharing out loud where our IDP resources are. Unlike O players which is everywhere and everyone doing them either love or hates, we want to keep an IDP guy we like to ourselves…lol, and I 100% get it.
  • It’s soooo true lol. BTW, got Bentley today, have 3 offers for him so far. Pots boiling on him.
  • Tipster: Yep, I hadn’t looked but think one of our other writers covered him after we talked last, or even before we talked. I can’t track all but let me see what they got on him. Here we go……..

Players To Target and Fade After Preseason Week Two, Stock Rising and Falling

(Article provided by another great @IDPguys writer who knows his stuff, Tyler @ONUtyjo .)

  • It’s tough to balance it all, I can relate. I get Jaylen Smith and a 3rd if give a first and Bentley, have to do it right?
  • Tipster: I would, as I’ve said, going off the past the Pats are like the Saints and have not had a true LB1 other than Collins one yr when Hightower was hurt. And I mean in like 5-6 yrs. So I’d be shocked if those ugly rotations changed. There are currently a few teams I avoid IDPs on, Pats have been number 1 for few yrs, and then there’s this….

Five Year Rookie Success Rate Tracker

  • Tipster: And one more thing, didn’t you just get Bentley off the waiver wire? If so, isn’t this just like given the 1st and a bit of your time for Smith and the pick?
  • Yea true! Done, Overvaluing wire pickups can kill you.
  • And u just hit my topic dead center in what I do in strategy for IDP like this, what I mentioned above I was recently thinking on. Who needs picks?

Summary: So as it unfolded he took an unknown “hyped” with upside, added a lottery ticket to him and got a “known” linebacker on the rise in Dallas. Personally trade my picks years before they are relevant, but I often do this same thing with “upside” players. We can collect players, if you find them with me, and put a couple together and offer up for one known and secure player wh will help you win now. As well as benefiting from trading those picks for the upper tiers. We can think of this as the “bird” in hand theory in a way. Give me the one bird we know can fly high over two or three other birds we can get for beans if we work it and not sure exactly how high they will fly. It’s simply playing the odds here, but I’ve done it for years and I can tell you that the “known” bird in the hand never lets us down. The other “unknown” birds may just hit, or they may not hit. Like we stated, it is playing the odds.


Via Private Message with @RICKYSETH JUL 30

  • @RICKYSETH: Hey hearing some buzz about Nick Kwiatkoski Bears LB. Think he can really win the job from Roquan Smith? Was gonna pick him up as a flyer. Jul 30
  • I had already penciled in Kwiatkoski in as a threat months ago, so as far as I’m concerned as long as the rookie keeps holding out that only increases  Kwiatkoski chances.

Summary: The “Rookie Blues” are really that I refer to in any form, from struggling to injuries and yes, including the possibility of a holdout. It refers to it all. So without also mentioning the Rookie Success Rate again above, I’ll skip to a quote from an article I wrote back in May that can be located by going thru one of my dossiers. Please keep in mind the Rookie Hype” in mainstream media was at a full tilt at the time.

2018 IDP Narrative Dossier Entry Log Four

And I quote:  I like Smith more as a dynasty player than one in 2018 with the different scenarios. If Trevathan can stay healthy, and he has a huge incentive to do so in the third year of a four year contract, the Bears are not going to bench the good veteran. This is the first year for him to make some real cash at $5.8 million and to set up the same amount in 2019 after only making just under $4 million combined in both his first two years of the contract. He does have a potential “out” in 2018 in his contract the Bears could exercise, but this is highly unlikely at this point and time with the depth of inside linebackers on the roster. Kwiatkoski is firmly in the third year of his rookie contract and shown growth as a 4th round pick each year so far.”

Of course, I can not read the future, but I can play the odds based on the past lengthy history of the NFL. And after his holdout (Rookie Blues) he has been hampered by a hamstring injury (Rookie Blues) and we have these type of reports flowing out of Chicago at the moment. Granted it depends who is reporting, but that can be seen as mainstream writers making a stand. So I’ll only refer to the actual beat writers statements or local talent in the Windy City and starting with the oldest.

https://twitter.com/adamjahns/status/1033431342363623424

The Latest: Head Coach Matt Nagy was asked if Smith will play in Thursday’s preseason finale against the Buffalo Bills…

“I would love to get him out there,” Nagy said. “I just don’t know if that’s where we’re going to be.”

“He’s at a point where it’s more the conditioning part of it, because mentally right now I feel like he’s in a good spot, I really do,” Nagy said. “It’s more of if he can last through a game or what’s his reps if he does play in that game. That we really don’t know, and then you’re just at a point where do you want to take the risk of overdoing it, and then you compound something. Do you want to do that or not. So that’s kind of where we’re at right now.”

All I can say at this point, I won’t discount my idea that my “take” in the article or the conversation that Robi and I had didn’t end on a “safe” note. There is such a thing as the “Rookie Blues”.


Via Private Message with @m_knudson AUG 28

  • @m_knudson: Hey, bud I gotta quick IDP question for you, Skai Moore or Kenny Young. Which do you prefer?
  • Tipster: A veteran..lol. But if I had to have one today, Moore, tuff call indeed.
  • @m_knudson: Lol, Marquel Lee is available. I’m deep at LB tho. Not looking for immediate impact, 16 man league and start 4.
    Currently, have…
    B.Wagner
    Williamson
    Kirksey
    AJ Klein
    Hitchens
    Bradham
    Shaq Thompson
    D.Campbell
  • Tipster: odds are Lee then, more on his situation. Lee may give it now. and later. Young not so sure. Moore more now than sure of later
  • @m_knudson: Thanks!

Summary: Pretty simple from my point of view.

As for Young, I’m not 100% sold that John Harbaugh will (trust) start a rookie. Let’s think about this, C.J. Mosely the only rookie IDP that has started for the Ravens since who? Ray Lewis maybe? Wait, was Lewis a rookie when Harbaugh got there? Either way, I can’t think of a rookie ever starting for Harbaugh other than C.J., and I know this as I answered. And last I heard (seen), Patrick Onwuasor has decided to fight for his job and has kept the competition even.

And for Moore, I know his situation just as well, but they like Anthony Walker, a lot. So what happens when he returns? Still plenty of “upside” there, but we are splitting the hairs in my answer.

So why did I go with Lee? One Jon Gruden has stated he likes Lee. Two is Derrick Johnson is old and even if he looked great in the playoffs last year, he actually lost a step two years ago. Three would be that Tahir Whitehead wasn’t good for the Lions and more of a production by default. Along with the idea if Whitehead is that good, why is this following thing allowed to happen and true.

There we have it, hopefully, at the least, you find them as interesting as I did. Please feel free to reach out to me anytime @HBogart27 or Email at gmtvandyke@gmail.com. Be sure to add keywords in the title such as Tipster or IDP to catch my attention ASAP.

I can’t promise your chat or email content will make it to the article, but I can tell you that I’m very interested in all things IDP and will do my best to give you my best “Take” from the Shadows.

 

 

 

 


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It is all about the IDP and to bring those interested the tools and content to win now. If you ever need a "follow-up" on anything I've written or would like to ask a general question feel free to contact me on Twitter @HBogart27. I'll also reply by email at gmtvandyke@gmail.com if in the title the words "IDP Tipster" are included. As always thank you for supporting my IDP fetish by reading my articles. Additional: News Desk Correspondent for FantasyPros @nfl_alerts Experience: give or take 20 yrs Proudest Accomplishment As IDP Guy: Developing "one of a kind and original" in-season "Easy Charts" for IDP start/sit advice by using multiple resources and trade secrets to win now. Go Buckeyes!