From The Shadow “Takes”: IDP Thoughts, IDP Auction Values, & Kwon Vs. Diggs

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The IDP Tipster takes you behind the scenes of some of his helpful conversations with followers and readers like you!


My personal definition of a “take”: Any information applied to a topic and shared from a personal perspective. In these cases, anything concerning a Fantasy Football topic.

Shadow “Take’s”

Often I receive emails or private chats on Twitter from Fantasy Football owners asking me a general question on my thoughts about their personal situations pertaining to many different topics. These can range from trade talks, drafting, roster structure, to just everyday football. As I reply with my “take” to try and assist them I normally find myself using the same methods of deduction in doing so that I’ve developed over the countless years.

It really does not matter the players involved or the exact situation at hand that determines the process I may choose, but it is the simple idea that the methods work in general for each given case I’m presented. And after repeatedly using those methods and process for some time now, I would like to share via From The Shadow “Takes”.

Applying what goes on behind closed doors or out back in the alley of Fantasy Football as a tool. The overall thinking here is that there are other owners who may have a similar situation or dilemmas but not willing to reach out to ask. And that by simply reading the processes that happen in private will reach out and assist other people. I hope these and all that may follow help make me as well as anyone else reading them a better gamer.

There is no “fluffing” of content, it is as raw as it was at the time. Both in the “take” as well as the wording and slang as it is presented. We are not writing a proper novel here.

Via Email with Kent

Title: Early IDP Thoughts?

Gary.

On Tue, Jul 10, 2018 at 3:26 PM, Kent XXXXX <XXXXXX@yahoo.com> wrote:

Hey Gary, our league just opened trading and I am prepping for the upcoming FF season. I currently have Sean Lee ($4), Telvin Smith ($5), Reshad Jones ($7), Joe Schobert ($2), and DeMario Davis ($2). I wanted to get your initial thoughts on these guys. Any I should try to move? Sure keepers?

I’m inclined to move Lee bc of injury and additon of Vander Esch.

I’m inclined to move/cut Jones bc or salary.

I’m on the fence with Telvin bc that’s a crowded defense

Schobert and Davis seems like decent bargains at their price, but they are in some crowded situation as well.

Thoughts?  

Thanks,

KENT

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On Wednesday, July 11, 2018, 3:44:30 AM CDT, Gary VanDyke <gmtvandyke@gmail.com> wrote:

Thx for reaching out Kent.

First off, nothing here letting me know if this may be a dynasty league or not, but no big deal I’ll answer best I can from both perspectives.

Lee is a bit of a risk, sure. But the odds that he is affected by the rookie isn’t as high as you might think as I have shown here in this article.

https://www.idpguys.org/five-year-rookie-success-rate-tracker/

To me, he is actually one of your most viable IDPs for 2018. And likely a couple more years in a dynasty. If the rookie happens to affect someone’s 2018 production it is likely not Lee’s. But my odds are laid on that article I sent ya in this case.

Smith won’t be going anywhere. With the news that Jack is moving to MLB full time and every downer won’t change much. For one Smith is a playmaker, for 2 Jack was an every down LB last yr, just from the SLB side and they sat Polzy on passing downs. So Smith and Jack were side by side as the every-down guys anyhow last season and it didn’t mess with Smith’s production very much at all. If there is a drop, it won’t be much and should not be a concern.

Smith is a 2018 and dynasty hold until further notice.

Jones may seem a bit high, but I believe we get what e pay for, so that’s not as big a deal to me personally.

In 2018 he should still be a top option as a DB. Kiko isn’t all that anymore and Raekwon in the middle of the field is threating but not a killing point to move on from Jones. Again maybe a slight drop, but not to a point that matters. As for a dynasty, if you need/want the cap I see why you would, but I sure get one good viable player in return and overall make sure the cap isn’t a sticking point in the deal to where you don’t get what he is worth. At that point, you might as well ride it out for a couple more years and enjoy his production towards winning your league.

As for Davis and Schobert, they are as good as bargains as they are at being risks. Not only crowded situations for each of them but also possible the way the teams are set up and ran that they both are in some type of dysfunctional rotation or even proven to be the production by default players they come across as.

In other words with the Browns bringing in Kendricks and the Saints weird linebacker history issues, both are trade bait as far as I’m concerned. Perhaps both of them for an upgrade of one top IDP guy could happen? I’m thinking that if these are all the players you’re asking me about, that it is likely around a 12 to 14 team league with shallow IDP starting lineups as well as bench spots. So your probably looking at these 2 as depth and there is possibly depth sitting on your league’s wire that can be or will be viable as soon as now or when the season kicks off.

Hope that was helpful and thanks for reaching out. I love talking IDP, any IDP anyway I can get it.

Gary

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Thanks Gary – very good insight. I’m in a very deep 12 team dynasty league with 5 spots for LB/DB (28 man total rosters). We have a $200 salary cap, and I generally don’t like to commit more than ~$15-20 (7-10%) of my total salary to IDPs. There’s usually great bargains to be had on the waiver wire bc managers aren’t paying attention to that side of the ball as much, so I don’t mind tying up the majority of it with proven and more costly players and then scooping up 3-4 $1 players during the draft or after the season starts.

I’ll likely hold Smith and Lee. Possibly dangle Jones and Schobert. I just dealt Davis in a deal last night. Lee’s injury history scares me, but I generally don’t think it’s wise to project injury in Football – and he’s just so dominant when he’s on the field (and that defense if going to play ALOT this year). Telvin is still affordable at $5 IF he finishes as a top 10 LB, which he should.

Reshad is the wild card at $7 (Keanu Neal is also $7, and Landon Collins is $4, but Baker, Byard, and Poyer are all $2 right now bc they were snagged for $1 last year. This happens every year at DB and I think it will again this year). I think IF I can unload Jones and Schobert in a deal that nets me a solid return, then I would deal them, and try to snag 3-4 guys in the draft with upside and hope that 1-2 of them pan out. Seems like LB is much more steady year to year, and you see a lot of the same guys at the top of the list, while DB is much more volatile.

Thanks again for the insight. 

Kent

 

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Overall sounds like ya got your head in the game, so cool, and I just might use that first email, thx, i’ll be in touch if I do.

 

Email any time

END

 

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Via Private Message with @TonyLLerenas

  • Wzup man have a ? Started my auction draft and it’s fun as hell was wondering wutz the most I seen Stud players go for and we’re using NFL salary cap which is $180,000,000
  • @TonyLLerenas
  • Jul 10

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Me Replying

  • Confused a bit with your question wording.
  • “wutz the most I seen Stud players go for, seems ur asking yourself there???..lol. But I get the “gist” I think of what you mean.”
  • That’s a difficult question with and left at a loss of how to answer it. There are sooo many variables at play there with different league setups and different owners approaching the situation as they go.
  • I personally have my flagship 32 tm league where I have 1/4 of my cap wrapped up in one LB (Kuechly) who I owned but was japped up on me in a restricted free agent auction and I had planned on it the season before to cover it. By setting up my other players in low cap hits.
  • Studs are far and few between in a 32 tm league, so I go for it when it calls for it.
  • So, here is my best answer to what I think your asking, I don’t know how to answer you. Each league is so different from item to item involved. It’s kind of one of those things u have to live and learn from your league and the tendencies. The best I got is if you’re going to seemingly overpay, do it on a known locked in player that’s been doing it for a few yrs at a high level.
  • Find you some rankings u like, set some tiers and a price range to not go over those prices. And just watch the market versus your rankings.
  • from Gary VanDyke
  • 22 hours ago

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@TonyLLerenas replying

  • Thanx man that helps

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Me Replying

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@TonyLLerenas replying

  • Have another ? Since auction lg I am doing it’s a contract lg too bidding on older players is not a bad idea right because I can sign them to 1-2 yr contracts right.

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Me Replying

  • I would have no problem doing so.
  • I mean the object to me is always winning, so I do what I have to and then deal with it later.
  • I play to win every league and ever yr
  • ok, thx, and good luck, leave me anything else u might be wondering about.

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@TonyLLerenas replying

  • Yeah that’s my belief win mode at all times
  • END

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Via Private Messsage with @WWBMoose

  • 16 team dynasty ppr.  Kwon Alexander or S Diggs

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Me Replying

  • that’s tough, I mean got to think whichever one is a bigger need if the scoring is equal and what your roster strengths are.

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@WWBMoose replying

  • I have J Collins, Milano, R Foster,  A Williamson and R Mcmillian besides Kwon
  • Have Baldwin, D Parker, Mike Williams,  Tyrell Williams, Funchess, S Shepherd, Godwin, and Jaron Brown
  • Plus have Ertz,  T Burton and E Engram as TE’s

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Me Replying

  • Hmm, how many IDPs and or LBs you start a week versus ur WRs?

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@WWBMoose replying

  • Can start 2-4 LB with a total of 11 idp
  • Can start 3-4 WR/TE with 1-2 RB.

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Me Replying

  • Wow, think that Know could very well be your anchor at LB.
  • score fairly even?
  • Know how to tell?
  • I can tell ya real easy
  • First what site is it?

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@WWBMoose replying

  • Mfl 

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Me Replying

  • Damn, they have projected stats, not score.
  • Ok, go tell me what Know scored in the league in 2016 and then what Diggs scored in 2017.
  • That’ll give me an idea
  • Their best years I think.

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@WWBMoose replying

  • Kwon scored 175.5 in 2016

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Me Replying

  • That’s high, good sign.

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@WWBMoose replying

  • Diggs 193 in 2017
  • I don’t include the points scored in weeks 18 and beyond

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Me Replying

  • Right, just need the reg season
  • Well, with the idea the Diggs may have hit his ceiling and they have Cousins now, and then to add in Cooks return so that run game might be used more. And to think about Kwon being healthy and a full year coming, on top of what the O in Tampa looks like it’ll be…..I keep Kwon if me. You have the TE support there for your WRs, but not so much depth, or good depth at LB to think top notch production like Kwon should get you.
  • END

 

There we have it, hopefully, at the least, you find them as interesting as I did. Please feel free to reach out to me anytime @HBogart27 or Email at gmtvandyke@gmail.com. Be sure to add keywords in the title such as Tipster or IDP to catch my attention ASAP.

I can’t promise your chat or email content will make it to the article form, but I can tell you that I’m very interested in all things IDP and will do my best to give you my best “Take” from the Shadows.

 

Until next time, thanks again for reading and always know I like to talk anything IDP and in general, Fantasy Football.

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It is all about the IDP and to bring those interested the tools and content to win now. If you ever need a "follow-up" on anything I've written or would like to ask a general question feel free to contact me on Twitter @HBogart27. I'll also reply by email at gmtvandyke@gmail.com if in the title the words "IDP Tipster" are included. As always thank you for supporting my IDP fetish by reading my articles. Additional: News Desk Correspondent for FantasyPros @nfl_alerts Experience: give or take 20 yrs Proudest Accomplishment As IDP Guy: Developing "one of a kind and original" in-season "Easy Charts" for IDP start/sit advice by using multiple resources and trade secrets to win now. Go Buckeyes!

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