Who are the Baltimore Ravens' 2023 IDP buy or sell candidates?
The Ravens have been just good enough lately to make the playoffs and get eliminated right away. They only have two wins in the last 10 years' worth of playoff appearances, both wildcards. The one constant on the Ravens has been the performance of their defense. Over the past five years, they have ranked #2, #3, #2, #19, and #3 in total team defense. They are also getting old, so they need to revamp their defense now to keep that advantage. Who are the IDP buy or sell for the 2023 unit?
Buy
Kyle Hamilton, Safety
Kyle Hamilton was the Ravens' first-round pick, 14th overall, in last year's NFL draft. All IDP experts figured he would waltz on in and dominate from the start in snaps and tackles. They were wrong. Hamilton was having trouble remembering where to be and when to be there. Those mistakes and the learning curve he was on, left him on the bench more often than on the field. The IDP buy or sell crowd was all in on the sell now to get the most return on investment.
Hamilton started off the season playing 50% of the defensive snaps during the first two games of the season. With him being caught out of position so often, the Ravens cut back his snaps considerably. In his next five games, he only broke 21 defensive snaps once. By Week 14, the Ravens figured out how to best utilize his talents and Hamilton started playing most of the defensive snaps. Hamilton also started the final four regular season games and the one playoff game last year.
Hamilton showed his ceiling in those last five weeks.
He nearly doubled his playtime during that five-week stretch. Hamilton also doubled his total years stats in those five games. For the year, he had 62 tackles (46 solo), 4 tackles for a loss, 5 QB hits, 2 sacks, 5 passes defended, and 1 forced fumble. To show how much he was involved in the final five weeks of last year, he posted 28 tackles (21 solo), 2 tackles for a loss, 2 QB hits, 1 sack, and 3 passes defended.
There are owners of Hamilton that have a sour taste in their mouths because of his performance during the first 13 weeks of 2022. Take advantage of that and add his services to your roster asap. He will not be cheap, but he will be the least expensive of any time over the next few years.
Buy
Jayson Odafe Oweh, Edge/Defensive End
Odafe Oweh was a first-round pick in the 2021 NFL draft out of Penn State. As a rookie, Oweh played in 15 games and started two of them. He played 54% or more of the defensive snaps in all 15 games. Oweh even had four games of more than 72% of the defensive snaps. He produced 33 tackles (23 solo), 5 tackles for a loss, 15 QB hits, 5 sacks, 1 pass defended, 3 forced fumbles, and 2 fumble recoveries.
81% or more of the defensive snaps in the first five games of 2022
Oweh started 2022 with a bang and immediately earned the title of buy on the IDP Buy or Sell list. He started 4 of those games and produced 21 tackles (16 solo), 3 tackles for a loss, 2 QB hits, 1 sack, and a forced fumble in those five games. The Ravens were disappointed though as he was not delivering pressure on the QB. His playing time would start to decrease.
Justin Houston would miss Weeks 3-6 and slowly get worked back into the rotation. The Ravens would sign Jason Pierre-Paul and he would start playing in Week 4. Tyus Bowser would miss the first half of the season and return to the field in Week 9. Oweh kept working hard and earned starts in the final two games of last year. He posted 5 tackles (3 solo), 1 tackle for a loss, 3 QB hits, and .5 sacks. This earned Oweh 55% of the defensive snaps in their wildcard game against the Cincinnati Bengals. He delivered 2 solo tackles, 1 tackle for a loss, 1 QB hit, and 1 sack.
Year three brings much optimism. Houston is 34 now and has dropped to below half of the defensive snaps. Pierre-Paul is also 34 and has dropped to below 60% of the snaps. These two players don't have the stamina to dominate games anymore and the Ravens showed at the end of 2022, Oweh is the future and they trust him. It is possible that he could be on your league's waiver wire and free. Take him and smile all the way to the bank.
Sell
Tyus Bowser, Edge/Defensive End
Tyus Bowser was a second-round pick in 2017. He has always been looked upon as a future dominant player for a dominant defense. As a rookie, he played in all 16 games and produced 11 tackles with 3 sacks total. In 2018, Bowser missed one game and still produced 11 tackles, but only .5 sacks. The letdown in his first two years was real.
Bowser saw his snaps steadily increase over the next three years to above 60% of the defensive snaps. He still hadn't missed any games with injury and 2021 was his breakout year. He produced 59 tackles (33 solo), 8 tackles for a loss, 15 QB hits, 7 sacks, 4 passes defended, and 2 forced fumbles. The Ravens had finally got another defensive lineman to create havoc in the opposition's backfield.
Bowser tears Achilles in Week 18 of the 2021 season
This injury was a brutal blow to an up-and-coming break-out star for a dominating defense. Let the rehab begin. Nine long months of rehab got Bowser back on the field in Week 9 of the 2022 season. Bowser would play nearly 70% of the defensive snaps to finish the year. In all those opportunities of over 300 defensive snaps, Bowser produced 13 tackles (8 solo), 3 tackles for a loss, 4 QB hits, 2 sacks, 2 passes defended, and 1 forced fumble.
Can the burst return with the injury that Bowser incurred? Will he regain his steady climb in relevancy? My guess is no and my recommendation is to sell. Bowser produced 3 tackles (2 solo), 1 tackle for a loss, 3 QB hits, and a sack in their wildcard playoff game last year. Use those stats to your advantage as you shop him.
Thank you for checking out my 23′ Team IDP Buy or Sell article! You can read all of my articles on my IDP Guys author page. Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @OldMan_FF and @IDPGuys (we have offense, too), and please consider becoming a subscriber!
