Taking a look at the NFL Week 13 from a IDP perspective; notes on what our writer @Orangeman3142 saw this weekend.
This is a continuation of our weekly article series that breaks down what we saw this week in IDP fantasy football. What happened and why, what we got right and what we got wrong and more importantly how to move forward and get better next week.
We look at possible waivers and trends, snap counts and issues that affect production for your IDP team. Part four will cover the last four games of week thirteen. Make sure you caught parts one, two and three from earlier this week.
Let’s get into it.
Minnesota Vikings @ New England Patriots
Vikings: It was an absolutely ideal matchup for middle linebacker Eric Kendricks (LB) and man did he take advantage of it with 16 combined tackles, 1 PD and 1 INT playing 99% of snaps this week, he remains a rock solid end of tier one option heading into playoffs, he won’t get you a monster game like this often but his floor is as solid as they come, he won’t screw you with a donut when it matters most.
Linval Joseph (DT) got back into the swing of things this week with 7 combined tackles playing 70% of snaps and is a tier one option at defensive tackle going into fantasy playoffs. Danielle Hunter (DE) has been hot all year and had another nice game with 6 combined tackles playing 88% of snaps this week, no ones sitting this guy so let’s keep it moving.
Everson Griffen (DE) had a better week with 5 combined tackles on 86% of snaps this week and is a solid end of tier one option at defensive end going into playoffs, his playing time increased last week with Stephen Weatherly (DE) playing only 26% of snaps it looks like him stealing time from Griffen won’t be a problem going into crunch time.
Harrison Smith (S) won our gut check poll last week against Jessie Bates (S) from Cincy, which is completely ridiculous. Smith had only 4 combined tackles this week playing 100% of snaps and has had 4 or fewer combined tackles in 4 games this year and has only had 2 monster games and 2 tier one games this entire year and only averages 5.25 combined tackles per game as a supposed tier one safety.
He’s spotty, he’s risky, he’s not consistent, he’s the type of guy that could lose you a playoff game, I own him nowhere. Buyer beware. Sheldon Richardson (DT) only had 3 combined tackles this week playing 69% of snaps but is a nice option as a DT2 in deeper leagues.
Both Xavier Rhodes (CB) and Trae Waynes (CB) had crappy games this week in ideal matchups, Waynes because he got concussed and Rhodes cause I don’t know. I would avoid playing either and stream a matchup at corner if you need to come playoff time.
Patriots: I’m only playing Trey Flowers (DE) from the Pats on any of my IDP lineups this post season, I recommend you do the same. Patrick Chung (S) and Devin McCourty (S) have been productive but are massively inconsistent and could screw you over with a terrible game at any point during the playoffs.
Kyle Van Noy (LB) is a fine option at LB3 or LB4 but if you’re counting on him to deliver you a linebacker two or one type of game during playoffs it could go south on you quickly. This entire team morphs each week to their opponent, besides Flowers pretty much every players snap percentage changes every week and there is no rhyme or reason to it, these Pats IDP players are a trap, don’t fall into it.
Flowers had 2 combined tackles, 1 sack and 1 TFL on 79% of snaps last week and remains a solid tier two option at defensive end heading into playoffs.
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
49ers: It was Fred Warner (LB) leading the way for the Niners this week with 8 combined tackles playing 98% of snaps this week, he’s a nice tier two option at linebacker going forward with a ton of potential for the future. DeForest Buckner (DT) had a great game with 7 combined tackles, 2 sacks and 2 TFL playing 84% of snaps this week and is a top five option at defensive tackle and an auto start going into playoffs.
The whole Elijah Lee (LB), who only played 3% of snaps this week, or Malcolm Smith (LB), who played 100% of snaps and had 7 combined tackles, situation is a disaster waiting to happen, it was Lee two weeks ago and Smith last week at weakside linebacker, starting either one going into playoffs is a bad idea, find help elsewhere.
Jaquiski Tartt (S) had a serviceable day with 5 solo tackles on only 50% of snaps while getting hurt once again, he is out for this week. Atone Exum Jr (S) was a nice option earlier in the season when Tartt was out but it’s crunch time not time to screw around with rolling the dice on a guy like him, find another safety elsewhere.
Solomon Thomas (DE) is more bad than good and Richard Sherman (CB) has been hurt a lot this year and hasn’t been great even when he did play I’m not touching either during playoffs. Sherman is good at standing behind a podium and reminding people he went to Stanford so he must be smart though, so there’s that.
Seahawks: Middle linebacker Bobby Wagner (LB) had a career day with 12 combined tackles, 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 PD, 1 INT and 1 TD playing 100% of snaps and is a tier one auto start who no one is thinking about sitting during fantasy playoffs, next.
Bradley McDougald (S) had another great game with 9 combined tackles playing 100% of snaps and remains a nice end of tier one option at safety going forward, I’m starting him in several places for playoffs. Tedric Thompson (S) only had 4 combined tackles on 100% of snaps and isn’t worth a start unless you’re in a super deep league.
Jarran Reed (DT) had 2 solo tackles, 1 sack and 1 TFL playing 78% of snaps this week and is a nice tier two option at defensive tackle heading forward. Frank Clark (DE) had a bad game but overall has been one of the absolute best deals this entire year, it cost most people nothing to get him and he’s been a tier one monster most of this season, start him if you have him.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Chargers: Linebacker Jatavis Brown (LB) has been a great waiver wire addition with the injuries to both Kyzir White (LB, S) and Denzel Perryman (LB) he now finds himself being the linebacker to own on the Chargers, he had 12 combined tackles and 1 PD playing 90% of snaps this week. He’s a solid tier two option going forward.
Desmond King (CB) had a great game in an ideal matchup with 10 combined tackles and 2 PD on 82% of snaps this week and remains a matchup dependent option at cornerback. Adrian Phillips (S) had a solid game as well with 9 combined tackles and 1 PD playing 84% of snaps, he’s a tier two option going forward and has a good floor.
Joey Bosa (DE) is heating up at the perfect time and had 6 combined tackles, 1 sack and 1 TFL playing 82% of snaps this week and will be a tier one auto start going into playoffs. Melvin Ingram (DE) had no stats of any kind playing 97% of snaps this week but remains an end of tier one option at defensive end going forward.
Jahleel Addae (S) and Derwin James (S) are the last two IDP relevant options on this team, James had 3 combined tackles, 3 PD and 1 INT on 99% of snaps and is a tier one auto start for playoffs while Addae had only 2 solo tackles on 100% of snaps and is a spotty end of tier two option I’m not interested in for playoffs.
Steelers: In a turn of events sporadic and generally terrible linebacker Jon Bostic (LB) only played 17% of snaps this week giving way to newcomer LJ Fort (LB) who played 83% of snaps and led the team with 12 combined tackles.
This is the first time I’ve even seen this guys name so it could just be an experiment or something more permanent, no way to know and I for one am not going to risk playing him next week just to see Jon Bostic back starting in that spot again, odds are with this weeks production Fort will be the other inside linebacker going forward but I’m not risking it and I wouldn’t suggest you do either unless truly desperate for linebacker help.
Sean Davis (S) and Terrel Edmunds (S) both had really nice games but I can’t recommend either of them either going forward, if you can play them as your second safety that’s one thing but relying on either for consistent tier one production is a recipe for disaster.
Cameron Heyward (DE, DT) had another solid game with 4 combined tackles, 1 TFL and 1 PD on 81% of snaps and is a nice tier two option with good consistency for playoffs. Vince Williams (LB) had 5 combined tackles playing 73% of snaps and is only good as a LB3 or LB4 in my opinion, too inconsistent and not enough playing time to be either your primary or second option at linebacker.
Stephon Tuitt (DE) is still just a spot start or short term guy and ideally not someone you have to use in playoffs, if so he’s in the Chris Jones (DE) or Derek Wolfe (DE) category of dice rolls. TJ Watt (LB, EDGE) had only 1 solo tackle this week on 83% of snaps and follows the edge rush linebacker law of averages, which means he’ll have weeks that are awesome but will average at least one of these clunkers every two or three games which also means he’ll have one at some point during fantasy playoffs, I’m not taking that risk. Only play him if you have a specific EDGE or OLB slot in your league.
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles
Redskins: For the first time I can remember this season it was Zach Brown (LB) leading the way for the Skins with 9 combined tackles and 2 TFL playing 91% of snaps this week, he was a top five IDP linebacker heading into the season but was supplanted by Mason Foster (LB), who had 5 solo tackles playing 100% of snaps, as the linebacker to own on the Redskins.
Brown will be a end of tier two option while Foster is an end of tier one option going into playoffs, both have had their value shoot up since Alex Smith (QB) and Colt McCoy (QB) got injured for the season, their offense is now led by always terrible Mark Sanchez (QB) and will surely continue to suck, their playing time on defense will shoot up while he’s under center. Ha Ha Clinton Dix (S) had 7 solo tackles playing 100% of snaps and has been super hot since joining Washington a few weeks ago, he’ll be an end of tier one safety heading into playoffs.
DJ Swearinger (S) was a good option until Clinton Dix joined the team and soaked up some of his production, he hasn’t been the same since and is a serious risk to screw you over in playoffs if you play him. Ryan Kerrigan (LB, EDGE) should only be played if you have a specific EDGE or OLB slot and Josh Norman (CB) is a decent option if the matchup is correct against a team that throws the ball effectively.
Eagles: The Redskins offense was so terrible in this game that the Eagles IDP production was pretty terrible across the board, the Eagles dominated possession 40 minutes to 20 minutes and when the Skins had the ball they didn’t do much with it, keep that in mind as we hit these stats.
Brandon Graham (DE) and Fletcher Cox (DT) both had solid games with Graham recording 3 solo tackles, 1 sack and 2 TFL on 84% of snaps while Cox had 3 solo tackles, 1 sack and 1 TFL playing 89% of snaps this week. Cox is a tier one defensive tackle while Graham is a tier two option at defensive end heading into playoffs.
Both Nigel Bradham (LB) and Malcolm Jenkins (S) didn’t have to do much this week but I’m playing Bradham as a rock solid tier two linebacker going forward while Jenkins is about the safest safety there is floor-wise, he had very very few opportunities to make plays this week but still had 2 solo tackles, 1 sack and 1 TFL on 100% of snaps literally pulling a serviceable day out of the fire, he won’t get you those monster days but he will never screw you over either. Bradham played 100% of snaps and will be fine against literally any offense that isn’t led by Mark Sanchez.
If Jordan Hicks (LB) isn’t healthy I’m not sure about playing Kamu Gruger Hill (LB), who would take his place, he should get you something but I would look for other options personally. Corey Graham (S) only had 2 solo tackles and 1 PD this week but played 100% of snaps and could be a decent tier two option at safety in a better matchup. Micheal Bennett (DE) and Chris Long (DE) have been nice for bye weeks and short term fill ins this season but playing either going forward is risky, but you gotta do what you gotta do.
Good luck to all you guys in playoffs this week. And trust your gut, if you have a feeling go with it, my recommendations are based on what I’ve seen all year but realistically there’s a pretty good part of fantasy that is just dumb luck. So trust yourself, in the end that will give you just as good a shot as following the numbers to make that decision.
Make sure you caught parts one, two and three from earlier this week and keep an eye out for my start or sit article dropping Sunday morning. My bad habit of going too far into detail means this article is in multiple parts instead of one novel.
If you have any questions or need some advice feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@OrangeMan3142) or use the “Contact Us” box on our website (idpguys.org) to reach us. Our team of writers has over 100 combined years of experience in IDP fantasy football and we are always accessible and transparent with both our hits and misses.
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