IDP Players to Target or Fade Following Week 3 – Fantasy Stock Up or Stock Down

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Following Week 3, who is looking up and who is looking down for IDP FFL?


Stock Up

Avery Williamson

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Week 3: 14 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 TFL, 2 QB hits

77/77 snaps, 100%

Williamson was called out in the IDP community as a sleeper this offseason but has not been able to produce at the level many expected in the first two weeks. A lot of the hype was due to his role, a role that Demario Davis thrived in for IDP owners last year. This was the Williamson a lot of us expected to see and while I do not expect him to maintain this sort of production long term he should be a solid play going forward.

Take: Avery Williamson is a strong linebacker two type going forward. I’d expect around 8 tackles per game going forward.

Kenny Young

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Week 2: 10 tackles (8 solo), 1 TFL

44/68 snaps, 65%

Kenny Young had another solid game and more importantly lead the Ravens’ inside linebackers in snaps. His production and snap share are an excellent sign going forward. The Ravens’ coaching staff still seems to love Patrick Onwuasor and awarded him with the game ball after a game sealing interception, but I am still high on Young.

He is just such a perfect complement to C.J. Mosley with his coverage ability and athleticism. I’m going to upgrade my prediction to Young taking that second job and finishing as a LB3.

Take: Young should be rostered in almost all IDP formats, he should be a solid LB3 while Mosley is out and I project him to win the second inside linebacker job by the time Mosley returns.

Rookie Watch: Is Baltimore Ravens Linebacker Kenny Young A Zach Orr Replacement?

Demario Davis

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Week 3: 9 tackles (6 solo), 1 QB hit

68/68 snaps, 100%

Is the Saints’ linebacker rotation actually starting to clear up? Both Demario Davis and A.J. Klein played 100% of the snaps in Week 3 after a much messier rotation in the first couple weeks. A.J. Klein is worth monitoring in deeper leagues but Davis has the better upside of the two. It would be borderline crazy to expect Davis to match his production from last year because of the role change, but the 100% snap share is a positive sign going forward.

Take: Davis finishes as a low end linebacker two to high end linebacker three based on solid tackle production.

Duke Riley

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Week 3: 13 tackles (9 solo)

63/78 snaps, 80%

Duke Riley was an intriguing prospect last year, but then he took the field and it was clear that he just was not an NFL caliber player. I am still not a fan of his game after watching his game after watching the last season plus but he is currently manning one of the most productive spots in IDP. As long as he can do enough to hold that spot while Deion Jones is out he can produce and be usable for IDP owners.

Take: Not predicting anything big here because of questions I have about his game and ability to keep this role. He should get at least linebacker three production while he mans the role and commands a similar snap share.

Josey Jewell

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Week 3: 8 tackles (5 solo), 1 TFL, 1 PD

38/72 snaps, 53%

Brandon Marshall played in this game, but was limited to around half the snaps. This appears to be due to an injury, but whatever the reason was benefited Josey Jewell. The rookie got a chance to play and was impressive. This may have been an early tease as its still very possible the Broncos roll with Marshall and Todd Davis going forward, but Jewell showed a glimpse of what he can do when he gets his chance. I do think he has earned a role going forward, even if he is not one of the nominal starters.

Take: Jewell showed some of his potential and I do think he deserves a big role going forward, but I do not think he earns a big enough role to be a factor in IDP lineups yet.

J.J. Watt

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Week 3: 8 tackles (4 solo), 3 sacks, 3 TFL, 4 QB hits, 1 FF

52/62 snaps, 84%

I hate putting the big name guys in here, because everybody knows them and their stock often can not go up much more. However, this seems like an appropriate exception because many people have written Watt off after a couple injury plagued seasons and a slow start to this season. Football is more fun when we have a dominant J.J. Watt (unless he is playing against your team).

Take: Watt showed he can still play. Do not expect the same league winning dominance Watt offered early in his career, but he should be a mid to low end defensive end one type.

Darius Leonard

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Week 2: 18 tackles (15 solo), 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit

74/74 snaps, 100%

Darius Leonard had maybe the biggest Week 2 performance in IDP. The tackle production is not sustainable at this rate but he should continue to post excellent tackle numbers all season long. Leonard is the one reliable piece in the Colts’ linecbacker group right now, but middle linebacker Anthony Walker could eat up a small share of the tackles when he returns to health.

Take: Leonard should finish in the low end linebacker one to high end linebacker two range.

Anthony Walker

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Week 3: 9 tackles (7 solo), 1 INT, 1 PD

73/82 snaps, 89%

Walker’s usage continues to increase each week after missing most of the offseason with injuries. His production has been increasing with his usage. If you are still able to buy, now is the last chance. It will be interesting to see if Darius Leonard, Anthony Walker, and Clayton Geathers can all continue to produce the big tackle numbers simultaneously or if one will start to fall off some. For now I believe they can coexist.

Take: Walker is a low end linebacker 2, high end linebacker 3 for the rest of the season

Clayton Geathers

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Week 3: 13 tackles (11 solo), 1 PD

82/82 snaps, 100%

Clayton Geathers continues to produce elite tackle production from the strong safety production. As long as he remains healthy he should remain an elite safety option. With Malik Hooker‘s ability to cover up the back end, Geathers in freed up to roam around the middle of the defense.

Geathers is a big safety and talented player but is boosted by the Colts’ defensive scheme as evidenced by Mathis Farley last year. If Geathers does miss time Farley would become a top waiver wire target in IDP leagues.

Take: Geathers is a safety one. He doesn’t bring the big play ability of the elite guys so he falls just outside the top tier for me.

Leighton Vander Esch

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Week 3: 10 tackles (8 solo), 1 TFL

33/69 plays, 48%

The good news is Vander Esch has been one of the most efficient linebackers in the league on a tackle per snap basis. More good news, Sean Lee will miss more time and Vander Esch will see his playing time increase. He is still a little raw as evidenced by an occasional mental error, but he also has the athleticism to cover up some of the mistakes.

Take: Tough call since we have not seen much yet but I’ll be a little bold and predict Vander Esch as a high end linebacker two as long as Sean Lee is out.

Jerome Baker

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Week 3: 9 tackles (7 solo)

46/76 snaps, 61%

This was the first week Raekwon McMillan did not play every snap on defense. McMillan just has not been effective and seems to be losing playing time to teammate Jerome Baker. Baker had a great preseason and impressed in his opportunities in Week 3. Baker is undersized so he will probably continue to split time to some extent to help the defense hold up against the run, but the Dolphins should continue to get Baker on the field as much as possible.

Take: Baker’s role will continue to grow in Miami and he has a very bright future but I do not think he will fully secure an early down role for a while. For the rest of this season this season I think he’s a lower end linebacker three.

Marquel Lee

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Week 3: 2 tackles (1 solo), 1 TFL

28/44 snaps, 64%

Look at those stats from Week 2! Obviously, that is not the story here its the snap share and snap count. The snap share shows that Lee is starting to win this position away from Derrick Johnson. The super low snap count meant he did not get a big chance to produce and people will overlook the snap share increase because the fantasy points were not there. This makes him a perfect buy low candidate!

Take: Marquel Lee has linebacker two potential, but I am going to pump the brakes and call him a linebacker three while Johnson clings onto a small role.

Fred Warner

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Week 3: 11 tackles (9 solo), 2 TFLs, 1 PG

75/75 snaps, 100%

Warner already broke out and made the list so I almost left him off, but there were still questions on his role and production with Reuben Foster and Malcolm Smith returning. Warner answered those questions as he held his role, called the defense and continued to produce.

Take: Linebacker two for me.

Rookie Watch: Is Fred Warner Next In A Long Line Of Elite 49ers Linebackers?

Stock Down

Derrick Johnson

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Week 3: 1 tackle (1 solo)

13/44 snaps, 32%

See Marquel Lee above. Derrick Johnson has had a solid career but he has lost a step or two and has already lost his grip on the middle linebacker role for the Raiders.

Take: You should not have been counting on him anyway, but looks like a drop candidate.

Raekwon McMillan

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Week 3: 4 tackles (2 solo)

61/76 snaps 80%

Raekwon McMillan is squandering a huge opportunity. He has not been able to produce all season despite 100% snap shares in the firs two games. The Dolphins are looking elsewhere for production and McMillan’s snap share is starting to drop.

Take: He is still a young, talented player but I am in no way relying on him this season. He’s a hold in dynasty leagues but move on elsewhere.

Shaquem Griffin

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Week 3: 1 tackle (special teams)

0/59 snaps, 0%

Shaquem Griffin is a great story and got a huge chance early in the season due to the injuries to Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright.  Griffin just was not ready and the Seahawks were forced to look at other alternatives. His career is far from over and he will remain one of the most popular players in the NFL going forward, but he currently is not in Seattle’s plans on defense. He did not see a single snap on defense in Week 3.

Take: Stash or sell in dynasty, drop anywhere else.

Week 2 Calls – Accuracy Check

Stock Up

Shawn Williams

Week 3: 5 tackles (2 solo)

65/67 snaps, 97%

Week 2: 8 tackles (6 solo), 1 sack, 1 QB hit, 1 INT, 1 PD, 1 FF

70/85 snaps, 82%

Take: Williams is definitely a sneaky good add in all formats and I project a strong safety two finish.

Result: A little short of my expectations, but going to push this one out at least a week to decide.

Sam Hubbard

Week 3: 3 tackles (2 solo)

28/67 snaps, 42%

Week 2: 5 tackles (3 solo), 1 sack, 2 TFL, 1 QB hit

50/85 snaps, 59% (Up from 9% in Week 1)

Take: Hubbard is a great dynasty stash at this point.

Result: Hubbard’s snap count dropped and so did his production. This was expected, but still a promising young player.

Kenny Young

Week 3: 10 tackles (8 solo), 1 TFL

44/68 snaps, 65%

Week 2: 8 tackles (4 solo), 1 TFL, 1 QB hit

58/76 snaps, 76%

Take: Young should be rostered in almost all IDP formats, he should be a solid LB4 while Mosley is out and I project him to win the second inside linebacker job by the time Mosley returns.

Result: Kenny Young lead Ravens’ inside linebackers in snaps and tackles. He may exceed my production expectation, pushing this call until we know he beats out Patrick Onwuasor.

Derwin James

Week 3: 9 tackles (7 solo), 1 PD, 1 INT

77/77 snaps, 100%

Week 2: 8 tackles (7 solo), 1 sack, 1 QB hit, 2 TFL, 1 PD

59/62 snaps, 95%

Take: Derwin James has safety one upside, that is THE safety number one. If he continues to play the same box role he did in Week 2 he will finish among the safety one group (top 12 safety).

Result: I’ll take the win on this one (1/1 100%)

Kiko Alonso

Week 3: 15 tackles (7 solo)

Week 2: 13 tackles (13 solo), 2 FF

65/65 snaps, 100%

Take: Alonso is probably a good value for win-now and redraft teams. I believe he can be a linebacker two for the rest of the season.

Result: Another huge tackle week, looks right on the money (2/2 100%)

Morgan Burnett

Week 2: 6 tackles (3 solo), 1 QB hit

52/58 snaps, 90%

Take: Burnett is another great buy-low for win-now and redraft teams. Do not overpay due to the abundance of safeties, but Burnett has a safety one ceiling if his usage continues. I believe he will finish in the low safety two, high safety three range.

Result: Burnett sat with an injury, pushing this off a week.

Justin Reid

Week 3: 3 tackles (3 solo)

21/62 snaps, 34%

Week 2: 5 tackles (4 solo), 1 QB hit

59/59 snaps, 100%

Take: Reid is a smart upside stash as a backup safety with a solid floor. I project him as a safety three if the Texans do not change things around again.

Result: The Texans changed things around. Kareem Jackson played safety again and Aaron Colvin played corner. Still a decent upside stash but looking like this situation will be hard to predict.

Darius Leonard

Week 3: 13 tackles (9 solo), 2 sacks, 5 TFL, 2 QB hits, 1 PD

82/82 snaps, 100%

Week 2: 18 tackles (15 solo), 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit

74/74 snaps, 100%

Take: Leonard should finish in the low end linebacker one to high end linebacker two range.

Result: Leonard definitely kept up linebacker one pace with another huge Week 3 game. (3/3 100%)

Benson Mayoa

Week 3: 5 tackles (5 solo)

62/74 snaps, 84%

Week 2: 7 tackles (6 solo), 2 sacks, 4 TFL, 2 QB hits

56/72 snaps, 78%

Take: Mayowa is a great stash if you have the roster space, my expectations are not super high so he is an easy cut if he does not look good over the next couple weeks. Also remember to keep an eye on Markus Golden!

Result: Decent tackle production, still not excited, but still worthy of a stash if you have deep rosters.

Antoine Bethea

Week 3: 5 tackles (4 solo)

74/74 snaps, 100%

Week 2: 8 tackles (7 solo)

72/72 snaps, 100%

Take: Bethea finishes in the safety two range.

Results: A little lower than I expected, but not a complete miss. Will push this off a week before making a call.

Fred Warner

Week 3: 11 tackles (9 solo), 2 TFL, 1 PD

76/76 snaps, 100%

Week 2: 10 tackles (8 solo)

77/77 snaps, 100%

Take: Warner is squarely on my radar as a linebacker two.

Results: Correct, Warner proved he is still relevant with Reuben Foster back in the fold with another great performance. (4/4 100%).

Stock Down

Deone Bucannon

Week 3: 1/74 snaps, 1%

Week 2: 1 tackle (1 solo)

25/72 snaps, 35%

Take: I would hold Bucannon in a bench spot for one more week if there is not another three down linebacker available on waivers. Ultimately, I think Bucannon is going to be a cut candidate for IDP owners.

Result: Correct, go ahead and drop Bucannon. Keep him on the radar, if he gets snaps due to injuries or any other reason he can produce. (5/5 100%)

Shaq Thompson

Week 3: 8 tackles (7 solo)

65/65 snaps, 100%

Week 2: 2 tackles (2 solo), 1 QB hit

63/63 snaps 100%

Take: I am not ready to make a call here. I think the Panthers want Thompson to be the guy but he has to earn it over the next two weeks.

Result: Solid bounce back week. This is why I was unready to make a call and I still do not know how the snaps will be divided when Thomas Davis returns.

Micah Hyde

Week 3: 8 tackles (7 solo), 1 PD

66/66 snaps, 100%

Week 2: 3 tackles (2 solo)

56/56 snaps, 100%

Take: Hyde may have a few big games, but he is a drop for me.

Result: May have been one of the few good games I predicted. I think my process and logic are sound but I’ll take the loss here. (5/6 83%)

Reggie Ragland

Week 3: 8 tackles (4 solo)

49/68 snaps, 72%

Week 2: 5 tackles (4 solo)

25/81 snaps, 30%

Take: Ragland is not a guy I want to own, I would trade him if I could get any value out of him.

Results: Ragland had a decent bounce back as well, may be game plan specific usage, but another loss for me. (5/7 71%)

Terrell Edmunds

Week 3: 1 tackle (1 solo), 1 INT, 1 PD

73/73 snaps, 100%

Week 2: 4 tackles (3 solo)

32/58, 55%

Take: Edmunds is a dynasty stash unless playing time is freed up through an injury or some other means.

Result: The interception was a nice play, but was a gift on a bad overthrow right to him. I’m more concerned with the tackle numbers given his opportunity. This is still an avoid for me and a win for my score. (6/8 75%)

Zach Brown

Week 3: 6 tackles (3 solo)

50/79 snaps, 72%

Week 2: 10 tackles (4 solo), 1 TFL

51/61 snaps, 84%

Take: Do not overreact, Zach Brown is okay. I am just bumping him down a few spots in my rankings until he gets back to a 100% snap share consistently.

Result: More of the same, maybe slipping more.

Sean Lee

Week 3: 11 tackles (5 solo), 0.5 sack, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit

36/69 snaps, 52%

Week 2: 5 tackles (3 solo)

41/68 snaps 60%

Take: Proceed at your own risk, you better have a good insurance plan waiting on the bench.

Result: Lee was having a great game, but is now looking at missed time.  Nailed this one too. (7/9 78%)

 

Week 1 Result: 11/15 Correct

Week 2 Result: 7/9 Correct

Total: 18/24 (75%)

Be sure to check out this article series each week, as Tyler Joseph will be reviewing the players who you should be buying and fading based on players performance.

 


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Former college football player, team leader in personal fouls for two straight seasons. Work as an engineer when I'm not engulfed in fantasy football. Follow me on twitter @ONUtyjo to talk anything fantasy football related: IDP, dynasty, contract leagues, superflex, devy, etc.