IDP Players to Fade or Target Following Week 2 – Fantasy Stock Up or Stock Down

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Following Week 2, who is looking up and who is looking down for IDP FFL?


Stock Up

Shawn Williams

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Week 2: 8 tackles (6 solo), 1 sack, 1 QB hit, 1 INT, 1 PD, 1 FF

70/85 snaps, 82%

The bad news here is that Williams got ejected in Week 1 for a boneheaded violation of the new helmet rule. In his absence backup Clayton Fejedelem filled in admirably with 10 tackles and a big forced fumble and fumble recovery to seal the game. The Fed earned himself was extra playing time going forward which is a small hit to Williams’ IDP value.

The good news here is the scheme change in Cincinnati has resulted in a huge increase in production from the strong safety position between Fed and Williams. Paul Guenther did not utilize a true strong safety in his tenure in Cincinnati, but now Williams is getting to line up closer to the line of scrimmage than he did last year. The Week 1 ejection may result in a lower price or waiver wire availability.

Take: Williams is definitely a sneaky good add in all formats and I project a strong safety two finish.

Sam Hubbard

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Week 2: 5 tackles (3 solo), 1 sack, 2 TFL, 1 QB hit

50/85 snaps, 59% (Up from 9% in Week 1)

This one comes with a bit of a caveat. Hubbard got his chance because of an injury to starter Michael Johnson. The good news is that Hubbard got a big snap share despite a plethora of options in the Bengals’ pass rushing group. The Bengals will utilize a heavy rotation of Carlos Dunlap, Michael Johnson, Carl Lawson, Sam Hubbard, and Jordan Willis going forward which will likely prevent Hubbard from having immediate fantasy value.

Take: Hubbard is a great dynasty stash at this point.

Kenny Young

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Week 2: 8 tackles (4 solo), 1 TFL, 1 QB hit

58/76 snaps, 76%

Kenny Young and Patrick Onwuasor both got an increased opportunity after an early injury to CJ Mosley. Mosley projects to miss three to six weeks with a bone bruise in his knee which may free up the backups for another week. Typically we chase snaps which would favor Onwuasor’s 99% snap share in Week 2, but Young just continues to look like the better player. Young definitely has the better long term value and I believe he will surpass Onwuasor in the rotation in the next few weeks.

Young is shaping up to be a terrific dynasty asset and could even become a useful redraft piece this season.

Take: Young should be rostered in almost all IDP formats, he should be a solid LB4 while Mosley is out and I project him to win the second inside linebacker job by the time Mosley returns.

Rookie Watch: Is Baltimore Ravens Linebacker Kenny Young A Zach Orr Replacement?

Derwin James

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Week 2: 8 tackles (7 solo), 1 sack, 1 QB hit, 2 TFL, 1 PD

59/62 snaps, 95%

Derwin James played mostly deep safety in Week 1 while Jahleel Addae handled most of the work in the box. In Week 2 they seemed to flip roles, this is definitely worth monitoring closely moving forward. James can be a Landon Collins and Reshad Jones level stud if he continues to get a lot of work around the box. Obviously his youth makes him an invaluable asset in dynasty if he starts scoring at that elite level, but he can also be an elite redraft option this year if he continues to play that role.

Take: Derwin James has safety one upside, that is THE safety number one. If he continues to play the same box role he did in Week 2 he will finish among the safety one group (top 12 safety).

Kiko Alonso

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Week 2: 13 tackles (13 solo), 2 FF

65/65 snaps, 100%

Alonso had a monster tackle game in Week 2 and tagged on two forced fumbles. This Miami offense looks bad which means the defense is going to spend a lot of time on the field. Alonso is seemingly the only competent tackler in the Dolphins linebacker group at times and should be an IDP stud for the rest of the season. His dynasty value remains a little riskier, he is generally not considered a great football player but he is playing some of the best football of his career right now.

Take: Alonso is probably a good value for win-now and redraft teams. I believe he can be a linebacker two for the rest of the season.

Morgan Burnett

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Week 2: 6 tackles (3 solo), 1 QB hit

52/58 snaps, 90%

The production is not quite there yet for Morgan Burnett, but in Week 2 he saw the snaps and was utilized in a productive IDP role. Burnett was coming off an injury heading in to Week 1 and the Steelers elected to play rookie Terrell Edmunds over Burnett. Whether it was performance related or health related, Burnett seemed to reclaim the strong safety role in Week 2. His six tackles do not seem like a lot but they were enough to lead the team in a Week 2 game that only saw the Steelers’ defense on the field for 58 snaps. Burnett’s long term value may be questionable with rookie Edmunds lurking and a potential out in his contract following the 2018 season. However its a perfect buy low window if you need safety production now.

Take: Burnett is another great buy-low for win-now and redraft teams. Do not overpay due to the abundance of safeties, but Burnett has a safety one ceiling if his usage continues. I believe he will finish in the low safety two, high safety three range.

Justin Reid

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Week 2: 5 tackles (4 solo), 1 QB hit

59/59 snaps, 100%

The Kareem Jackson transition to safety was off to a great start in Week 1, then the Texans lost Kevin Johnson from a cornerback group that was already hurting for depth. In Week 2 Jackson moved back to cornerback and rookie Justin Reid was brought in to man the strong safety role. Much like Burnett, the production was not quite there yet but he certainly has a great opportunity going forward.

Take: Reid is a smart upside stash as a backup safety with a solid floor. I project him as a safety three if the Texans do not change things around again.

Darius Leonard

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Week 2: 18 tackles (15 solo), 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit

74/74 snaps, 100%

Darius Leonard had maybe the biggest Week 2 performance in IDP. The tackle production is not sustainable at this rate but he should continue to post excellent tackle numbers all season long. Leonard is the one reliable piece in the Colts’ linecbacker group right now, but middle linebacker Anthony Walker could eat up a small share of the tackles when he returns to health.

Take: Leonard should finish in the low end linebacker one to high end linebacker two range.

Benson Mayoa

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Week 2: 7 tackles (6 solo), 2 sacks, 4 TFL, 2 QB hits

56/72 snaps, 78%

Mayowa came through with a monster Week 2 performance for a Cardinals’ team that was desperately hurting for a defensive end to step up opposite Chandler Jones. The big question for Mayowa going forward is the snap share as teammate Markus Golden returns from injury.

Take: Mayowa is a great stash if you have the roster space, my expectations are not super high so he is an easy cut if he does not look good over the next couple weeks. Also remember to keep an eye on Markus Golden!

Antoine Bethea

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8 tackles (7 solo)

72/72 snaps, 100%

The Cardinals brought in a new defensive coordinator but are still utilizing a lot of three safety sets. Bethea has been the biggest beneficiary so far with a lot of work in the box, with Tre Boston playing deep and Budda Baker often working in the slot. Bethea is 34 years old, so there probably is not much left in the tank but he can definitely help win-now and redraft teams. I would even consider selling Budda Baker at this point, he will be solid but I feel he is overvalued at this point.

Take: Bethea finishes in the safety two range.

Fred Warner

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Week 2: 10 tackles (8 solo)

77/77 snaps, 100%

Warner followed up his monstrous NFL debut with another very good effort.  The big question everyone is asking is how Reuben Foster‘s return impacts Warner going forward. I do not believe it will be a huge impact and we will continue to see Warner thrive.

Take: Warner is squarely on my radar as a linebacker two.

Rookie Watch: Is Fred Warner Next In A Long Line Of Elite 49ers Linebackers?

Stock Down

Deone Bucannon

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Week 2: 1 tackle (1 solo)

25/72 snaps, 35%

This was unexpected. Bucannon seemed like the one guys locked in to a three down linebacker role in Arizona going into the season. Due to poor play he is now rotating heavily with Gerald Hodges and the Cardinals are deploying a three safety set as their base. Budda Baker, Antoine Bethea, and Tre Boston all played 100% of the snaps in Week 2. Josh Bynes is the only linebacker to own in Arizona right now.

Take: I would hold Bucannon in a bench spot for one more week if there is not another three down linebacker available on waivers. Ultimately, I think Bucannon is going to be a cut candidate for IDP owners.

Shaq Thompson

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Week 2: 2 tackles (2 solo), 1 QB hit

63/63 snaps 100%

Its possible for a player to have a great game and little to no IDP impact. I do not believe that was the case for Shaq Thompson in Week 2. The other huge downside of this bad performance is that Thompson was essentially auditioning or competing for a three down role while Thomas Davis serves his four game suspension. If Thompson continues to struggle then Davis will reclaim that role and Thompson’s value will plummet.

Take: I am not ready to make a call here. I think the Panthers want Thompson to be the guy but he has to earn it over the next two weeks.

Micah Hyde

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Week 2: 3 tackles (2 solo)

56/56 snaps, 100%

Hyde is not necessarily playing poorly but his IDP value is dropping due to a scheme change. The Bills are utilizing a lot of three safety looks with Hyde as the deep man. This just is not giving him chances to make tackles at a high enough rate to sustain value in a deep player pool at the safety position.

Take: Hyde may have a few big games, but he is a drop for me.

Reggie Ragland

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Week 2: 5 tackles (4 solo)

25/81 snaps, 30%

Ragland was efficient in his limited snaps and may have just been out due to the shootout nature of this game. That being said, we should not be very interested in players with 30% snap shares. This could level out and he could be okay, but the Chiefs high powered offense and poor secondary seems to be a recipe for a lot of shootout type games this year. This may mean inconsistency for Ragland all year.

Take: Ragland is not a guy I want to own, I would trade him if I could get any value out of him.

Terrell Edmunds

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Week 2: 4 tackles (3 solo)

32/58, 55%

See the Morgan Burnett blurb above. I just do not think Edmunds is ready this year and the Steelers likely will not turn to him unless they have to or they’re eliminated from contention. I do think Edmunds is the future and will be the starting strong safety next year but he is not one I would rely on this year

Take: Edmunds is a dynasty stash unless playing time is freed up through an injury or some other means.

Zach Brown

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Week 2: 10 tackles (4 solo), 1 TFL

51/61 snaps, 84%

Zach Brown does not seem to be the three down guy early in the year. Mason Foster got 100% of the snaps in Week 2. Brown is not missing a lot of snaps, but its just enough to be a slight downgrade.

Take: Do not overreact, Zach Brown is okay. I am just bumping him down a few spots in my rankings until he gets back to a 100% snap share consistently.

Sean Lee

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Week 2: 5 tackles (3 solo)

41/68 snaps 60%

Sean Lee is a special player and a real difference maker for the Cowboys’ defense. The snap share is the problem here and it seems to be a result of another injury. The fragile veteran missed the end of this game after tweaking a hamstring.

Take: Proceed at your own risk, you better have a good insurance plan waiting on the bench.

Week 1 Calls – Accuracy Check

Note that takes were made more clear in Week 2 article to reflect this.

Stock Up

Ricardo Allen

Week 1: 5 tackles (4 solo), 1 PD

72/72 snaps, 100% snap share

Week 2: 5 tackles (5 solo), 1 INT, 2 PD

67/67 snaps, 100%

Result: Inconclusive – Kazee was ejected early and Allen moved back to FS. He still had a decent game but not because of the tackles I expected in the strong safety role.

Fred Warner

Week 1: 12 tackles (11 solo), 1 FF, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit, 1 PD

71/71 snaps, 100%

Week 2: 10 tackles (8 solo)

77/77 snaps, 100%

Result: Correct (1/1)

Harrison Smith

Week 1: 8 tackles (7 solo), 1 sack, 2 TFL, 1PD, 1 QB hit, 1 INT, 1 FR

Week 2: 8 tackles (6 solo), 1 TFL

77/77 snaps, 100%

Result: Correct (2/2)

Nick Vigil

Week 1: 11 tackles (11 solo), 2 TFL

82/82 snaps, 100%

Week 2: 9 tackles (6 solo), 1 PD

Result: Correct (3/3)

Darius Leonard

Week 1: 9 tackles (6 solo), 1 FR

55/55 snaps, 100%

Week 2: 18 tackles (15 solo), 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit

74/74 snaps, 100%

Result: Correct (4/4)

Tremaine Edmunds

Week 1: 7 tackles (3 solo), 1 sack, 1 TFL, 2 PD, 1 QB hit, 1 FF

80/80 snaps, 100%

Week 2: 7 tackles (6 solo)

56/56 snaps, 100%

Result: Correct (5/5)

Myles Jack

Week 1: 10 tackles (7 solo), 1 PD, 1 INT, 1 TD

71/71 snaps, 100%

Week 2: 8 tackles (7 solo)

61/61 snaps, 10%

Result: Correct (6/6)

Myles Garrett

Week 1: 6 tackles (5 solo), 3 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 PD, 2 QB hits, 2 FFs

84/84 snaps, 100%

Week 2: 1 tackle (1 solo)

65/66 snaps, 98%

Result: Incorrect (6/7) I will take a loss here, but I totally expect a rebound. Garrett is playing a ridiculous snap share for a defensive end and is a dominant player.

Reshad Jones

Week 1: 7 tackles (4 solo), 1.5 TFL, 2 PD, 2 INT

63/69 snaps, 94%

Week 2: 3 tackles (2 solo)

65/65 snaps, 100%

Result: Incorrect (6/8)

Anthony Hitchens

Week 1: 15 tackles (7 solo), 2 TFL

78/78 snaps, 100%

Week 2: 12 tackles (7 solo), 1 TFL

77/82 plays, 94%

Results: Correct (7/9)

Kyzir White

Week 1: 6 tackles (3 solo)

44/56 snaps, 80%

Week 2: 4 tackles (4 solo), 1 INT, 3 PD

38/62 snaps, 61%

Results: Correct (8/10)

Josh Bynes

Week 1: 11 tackles (8 solo)

71/79 snaps, 95%

Week 2: 6 tackles (4 solo), 1 PD

70/72 snaps, 97%

Results: Inconclusive – I think he is a solid option going forward, but not enough to give myself credit here.

Bradley McDougald

Week 1: 5 tackles (5 solo), 2 PD, 2 INT

61/72 snaps 85%

Week 2: 8 tackles (8 solo), 1 TFL, 1 PD

66/66 snaps, 100%

Result: Correct (9/11)

Von Miller

Week 1: 7 tackles (6 solo), 3 sacks, 2 TFL, 4 QB hits, 2 FF, 1 FR

50/57 snaps, 91%

Week 2: 5 tackles (3 solo), 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit

50/65 snaps, 77%

Result: Inconclusive – pass rushers are inconsistent, 3 sack games are just not a repeatable result over a full season.

Kentrell Brice

Week 1: 9 tackles (8 solo), 1 sack, 1 QB hit

70/70 snaps, 100%

Week 2: 6 tackles (4 solo)

73/73 snaps, 100%

Result: Inconclusive

Darron Lee

Week 1: 7 tackles (6 solo), 3 PD, 2 INT, 1 TD

Week 2: 4 tackles (1 solo)

57/60 snaps, 95%

Result: Incorrect (9/12) – Lee is playing great football as evidenced by PFF’s top score among all qualified linebacker, but this is an IDP article and he did not perform.  I will eat the loss here but feel good about Lee going forward.

Stock Down

Derek Barnett

Week 1: 2 tackles (1 solo), 1 QB hit

40/70 snaps, 62%

Week 2: 3 tackles (3 solo), 1 TFL, 1 QB hit

35/58 snaps, 60%

Result: Inconclusive – I am still not buying in between the heavy defensive line rotation and lack of production.

B.J. Goodson

Week 1: 2 tackles (1 solo)

33/63 snaps, 53%

Week 2: 1 tackle

30/53 snaps, 57%

Result: Correct (10/13)

Morgan Burnett

Week 1: 2 tackles (1 solo), 0.5 TFL

40/88 snaps, 47%

Week 2: 6 tackles (3 solo), 1 QB hit

52/58 snaps, 90%

Result: Incorrect (10/14)

Haason Reddick

Week 1: 4 tackles (3 solo), 1 TFL

14/78 snaps, 19%

Week 2: 1 tackle

3/72 snaps, 4%

Result: Correct (11/15)

Be sure to check out this article series each week, as Tyler Joseph will be reviewing the players who you should be buying and fading based on players performance.

 


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Former college football player, team leader in personal fouls for two straight seasons. Work as an engineer when I'm not engulfed in fantasy football. Follow me on twitter @ONUtyjo to talk anything fantasy football related: IDP, dynasty, contract leagues, superflex, devy, etc.