Week 2 is concluded, and though we have a better understanding of depth charts, there is still plenty of unknown. Here are some potential IDP sleepers for Week 3.
After week 2 concluded, some of what we thought we knew has flown right out the window as quickly as it came in. Jabril Peppers out-snapped Xavier McKinney, Kamren Curl out-snapped Bobby McCain, and Germaine Pratt showed us that he is still Germaine Pratt. There are still some guys you can trot out as sleepers Week 3.
There were some players that did see a slight bump in usage from week one though, that I think could be a continuing trend, at least with their matchups going into week three. Here is a shortlist of potential for IDP sleepers for Week 3.
Defensive Line Sleepers
Morgan Fox - DE - Carolina Panthers
Week 2 Stats: 2 tackles (1 solo),0.5 sacks, 3 QB hits
The Panthers have an impressive group of young pass rushers in Brian Burns and Haason Reddick, but Morgan Fox should not be forgotten. He posted a career year in 2020 setting career highs in tackles (27), tackles for a loss (8), sacks (6), and QB hits (9).
Fox signed as a free agent in Carolina to help bolster their pass rush, and his ability to play inside and out has him seeing ample playing time. He played 51% of snaps in Week 1 and 59% in Week 2. The matchup does not seem ideal in week three for Fox as the Texans have only given up one sack through the first two weeks.
The difference is that he will be going up against a rookie signal-caller in Davis Mills. Tyrod Taylor will miss some significant time which will lead to more time for an unproven rookie who was not expected to see much of the field. It should lead to the Texans falling behind and Mills needing to throw more than expected, leaving him susceptible to added pressure.
*editor's note: Fox finished Thursday Night Football with 0.5 sacks, 2 solo tackles, and 1 assisted tackle. Good stat line for a rotational player! Get him on your IDP radar and on your roster in deep leagues!
Malik Reed - Edge - Denver Broncos
Week 2 Stats: 2 tackles (1 solo)
The Broncos have one of the deepest defensive lines in the NFL. Bradley Chubb, Von Miller, Dre'Mont Jones, Shelby Harris, and Malik Reed all have some serious pass-rushing prowess that has already shown out this season. Malik Reed has played on 66.5% of the team's defensive snaps so far this season showing an expanded role.
His role will only increase for Week 3. Bradley Chubb will be out indefinitely with his lingering ankle injury. Reed was terrific in 2020 with Von Miller on the shelf. He totaled 53 tackles, eight for a loss, eight sacks, and 17 QB hits. He should see a high volume of snaps with Chubb missing time and faces the Jets in week three who have given up a league-high five sacks in 2021 so far.
Linebacker
Justin Strnad - LB- Denver Broncos
Week 2 Stats: 6 tackles (4solo)
We are going to stick with the Broncos here and talk about Justin Strnad, an inside linebacker. Strnad was one of my favorite linebackers in the 2020 class. He was already making strides, playing in sub-packages as a rookie in training camp, though missed the entire season due to an injury.
Strnad is by far the Broncos' top linebacker in coverage and is finally going to see a high volume of starting snaps. Josey Jewell was playing an every-down role with A.J. Johnson playing a more limited role. A.J. Johnson played on 84% of the team's snaps, while Jewell played every snap in week 1.
Johnson is likely to retain the 100% snap role, while Strnad has a clear path to anywhere near the 80% snap share range. Strnad plays the Jets this week who just gave up eight tackles to Ja'Whaun Bentley. The Jets may look to get the running game going after Wilson threw a plethora of interceptions in week two. Strnad could have a big week.
Alec Ogletree - LB - Chicago Bears
Week 2 Stats: 3 tackles (1 solo), 1 pass defended, and 1 QB hit
Just when we all thought that Alec Ogletree was gone forever, he emerges from the ashes. Ogletree's career got off to a hot start with five strong seasons with the Rams. He followed that up with some decent seasons, production-wise, with the Giants, though marred with inefficiency and missed tackles. The Jets then signed him briefly to their barren linebacker group, only to be released in 2020.
He latched on with the Bears this offseason as added depth and showed during the pre-season that he still has some gas left in the tank. Danny Trevathan is on IR and Ogletree is assuming his starting role. Ogletree has played on 75% of the Bears' defensive snaps, producing eight tackles (three solo), one pass defended, and a QB hit.
The Bears get the run-heavy Browns in Week 3 and Ogletree should be very busy. Assuming he gets his 75% snap-share, which he should, Ogletree will see a heavy dose of Nick Chubb and has the athleticism to cover Kareem Hunt out of the backfield. He could have a sneaky strong game.
Defensive Back
Darious Williams - CB - Los Angeles Rams
Week 2 Stats: 7 solo tackles and a pass defended
Darious Williams enjoyed a breakout 2020 campaign to the tune of 44 tackles, 14 passes defended, and four interceptions. He seems to have brought that same fire into 2021 so far totaling seven tackles in each of his first two games this season.
Williams has also played on virtually every snap that the Rams defense has been on the field for. With Jalen Ramsey sliding inside to the slot more, Williams sees more coverage on the opposing team's top wideouts. Without being a true number one cornerback, Williams gets tested more often than so, though is up to the task.
In Week 3, the Rams take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tom Brady has thrown the ball 86 times in the first two weeks of the season., and though he has 9 touchdowns, he did throw two interceptions in week one.
Starting cornerbacks combined for 19 tackles, seven passes defended, and two interceptions over the first two weeks of the season. Williams could see a lot of volume and targets during a competitive week three matchup.
Summary
Over the first two weeks of the season, I have a hit rate of 70% on my sleeper calls. 80% if you consider Kendall Fuller's five-tackle game a hit. Looking at these matchups, the Broncos have a heavenly matchup against the Jets. They have some new starters for week three, giving them great streaming appeal as sleepers Week 3.
I love the Rams' defensive backs against the Buccaneers as well with how much they have the propensity to throw the ball. I also think that the Panthers have one of the stronger pass rush groups and Morgan Fox should be able to capitalize on a shaky rookie starting quarterback. Good luck in week three, and hopefully this has helped.
Thank you for reading! Follow me on Twitter at @JoeyTheToothIDP, and check out all of my IDP, Devy, and Offensive work on my IDP Guys author page. Stay up to date with the latest breaking news in fantasy football with The IDPGuys!
