When will the sacks start coming? What is the meaning of life? Why does it burn when I pee?
This article series will be set up exactly the same as last years was. For the Thursday night games I will be tweeting the start or sit on Twitter (@Orangeman3142). This article will publish weekly on Saturday morning and will cover all of the Sunday games and the Monday night game as well.
Last year I was writing four thousand word articles describing the thought process behind all these “decisions” (start or sit and what tier of expected production). In an effort to cover every IDP relevant player and every matchup and team I’ve cut that part of this process out, for the record though I use past production, playing time, expected game flow and trends of the offense each IDP player is going up against as well as gut instinct and projections from places such as MFL, Yahoo, ESPN and Sleeper to inform these decisions.
If you’re looking for an explanation for a particular player feel free to DM me on Twitter, @Orangeman3142.
This is year sixteen of IDP for me so I’m not just throwing darts here and the two articles and one podcast I do weekly take more than enough time so this is what it’s going to be, if you’re looking for more detail for as to why certain players are starts or sits I’m sure there are articles out there that do that, it just won’t be this one. Also I’m doing this for free and because I enjoy it so I’m going to have fun with it, if you can’t handle jokes I would abort mission now, no harm no foul.
These start or sit decisions are only suggestions and in the end the responsibility for your lineup is ultimately yours and yours alone. I’ll do my best to be as accurate as possible each week. These decisions I’m recommending are the same ones I’m making in my own lineups so we sink or swim together if you do decide to take any of this advice. Good luck in your matchups this week. Let’s get that hardware.
Every single game, team and IDP relevant player will be covered in this article series all year from start to finish. The production will be divided into categories like last year, this is how it looks:
Tier 1 Production: These players have the best matchups based on their playing time, past production, talent level and opportunity. They have the most solid floor and a terrific ceiling. If you need guaranteed production these players are the best bet to get that for you. These will likely be obvious most of the time.
Tier 2 Production: These players will get you some points but are missing something that makes them your best choice. This could be a lack of playing time, talent or some other factor that hurts their chances at an outstanding performance. These players are usually a good option in deeper leagues with large rosters or all IDP leagues.
Tier 3 Production: These players are a shot in the dark. These are starts you will likely only make in larger leagues with huge rosters or during bye weeks or for short term injury replacements. There’s a chance it could work out but not a great one due to any number of factors including lack of playing time, talent or ideal matchup. This tier is as close to “sit” as you can get while still having some value. These players are mostly used in larger leagues with huge rosters and in all IDP leagues.
Sit: Pretty easy, sit em. For any number of reasons from a nagging injury to lack of playing time, talent or ideal matchup these players should NOT be started this week. I will be wrong on these occasionally throughout the season but at the time of publishing the players in this category are far more likely to bust and get you nothing rather than have a good or great week.
***Player situations change due to injury and other factors, this article was written days before Sunday so please pay attention and adjust your lineup accordingly ***
***If I don’t mention a player they are a sit or just not on my radar yet which likely means they should be a sit. If a player is inactive or injured after this article is published please use common sense and sit them. Check the inactive list at 11:30 AM eastern time on ESPN and NFL websites to check for surprise inactives each Sunday***
Last week I made approximately 248 “decisions” (start or sit) and got 182 correct or in the ballpark and 66 incorrect or not even close for a 73% correct rate. My average for all of last season was 74% correct overall and through week two we are holding at 74.5% correct for this season. Let’s dive into this weeks games.
***For any “EDGE” players listed the rule of thumb is to drop them a level in expected production from where they are listed if you start them as a regular linebacker instead of in a specific “Edge” or “OLB” slot in your league. This is due to the inconsistent nature of production for these players being sack dependent for the majority of their points. If your league has an “Edge” or “OLB” slot to plug them in to then everyone takes the same risk putting those players in that slot each week, however if you choose to use these players in a regular linebacker slot there’s a good chance they don’t get a sack and you end up with little to no points from them.
They are a boom or bust option when used in a regular linebacker slot. Keep that in mind as you play Shaq Barrett or Whitney Mercilus this week, it’s been all sunshine and rainbows so far but there will be weeks where they don’t have any sacks and it won’t be pretty if you started them in a regular linebacker slot and your opponent started a guy like KJ Wright in that same slot when KJ gets his usual 4-8 tackles and you’re down that many fantasy points in just that one player to player matchup. Buyer beware.***
Budda Baker looks to soar higher than ever this week
Cardinals @ Bengals
Tier two starts: Haason Redick (LB) Terrell Suggs (EDGE)
Tier three starts: Deionte Thompson (S) *Likely will fill DJ Swearinger (S) role after his release this week* Cardinals Cornerbacks, this is an OK matchup to start or stream Cardinals corners.
Can the Bills get back on track and clap the Titans cheeks this week???
Bills @ Titans
Tier two starts: Rashaan Evans (LB)
It’s time for this man to show these other OLB who the real talent is in the league.
Bears @ Raiders
Sits: Roy Robertson Harris (DT) *Inconsistency and playing time should shrink with Hicks back this week, worth a dart throw if Akiem Hicks doesn’t play though*
Tier one starts: Tahir Whitehead (LB)
Tier three starts: Lamarcus Joyner (S) Clellin Ferrell (DE)
Sits: Raiders Cornerbacks, this is not an ideal matchup to start or stream Bears corners against a backup quarterback on a team that doesn’t really do passing in the first place.
Will this OLB nightmare ever end? Is this man going to smash the single season sacks record? Why can’t I poop solid? (Ayo booty wipes hit us up if you wanna do a sponsorship, we do a lot of butt related content)
Buccaneers @ Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tier one starts: Shaq Barrett (EDGE) Lavonte David (LB)
Sits: NA, Kevin Minter (LB) if Devin White (LB) plays
New Orleans Saints
Tier three starts: AJ Klein (LB) Marcus Williams (S)
Can this man end the short lived reign of “Danny Dimes”? That’s a stupid nick name btw.
Vikings @ Giants
New York Giants
Tier one starts: Antoine Bethea (S) Alec Ogletree (LB) *If he plays*
Sits: Micheal Thomas (S) *Playing time* Giants Cornerbacks, this is not an ideal matchup to start or stream Giants corners, but if you were to do it I would go with Janoris Jenkins, Minnesota throws the ball like fourteen times a game though so I’d look elsewhere for corner help this week.
With CJ Mosley doubtful for the week will this man make another huge splash on the IDP waiver wire?
Jets @ Eagles
New York Jets
Tier two starts: Marcus Maye (S)
Tier three starts: Andrew Sendejo (S)
Sits: Kamu Grugier Hill (LB) *He’s back healthy but his role is still unknown, avoid the risk for now* Eagles Cornerbacks, this is not an ideal matchup to start or stream Eagles corners, there are better matchups elsewhere.
Ryan Shazier would be proud of this man, defensive rookie of the year so far.
Ravens @ Steelers
Tier two starts: Eric Weddle (S) Matthew Judon (EDGE)
Tier three starts: NA
Tier three starts: Steelers Cornerbacks, this is an OK matchup to start or stream Steelers corners.
Sits: NA, all others
This guy is absolutely primed to have a monster game with the Pats in town promising to dominate time of possession as well as the Redskins buttholes.
Patriots @ Redskins
New England Patriots
Tier one starts: Jamie Collins (LB)
Sits: All others *Patriots IDP fluctuate wildly from week to week in playing time and production, it’s always a risk playing any Patriots IDP*
Tier one starts: Landon Collins (S) Jon Bostic (LB)
Sits: Shaun Dion Hamilton (LB) *Playing time*
Shaq Thompson channels his inner Bill Cartwright while thinking of Seans chest, Carolina USA circa 2019
Jaguars @ Panthers
Sits: NA, Najee Goode (LB) *Only has played when Myles Jack (LB) got ejected or injured, not relevant if Jack plays*
Tier one starts: Luke Kuechly (LB) Shaq Thompson (LB)
Sits: Bruce Irvin (EDGE) *Playing time, inconsistency*
We live in a world where this guy is the best linebacker on a team with Deion Jones, I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!
Falcons @ Texans
Tier one starts: Deion Jones (LB) Davondre Campbell (LB)
Tier two starts: Bernardrick McKinney (LB) Zach Cunningham (LB)
Tier three starts: DJ Reader (DT) Tashaun Gipson (S)
Sits: NA, all others
Todd Davis and a fan.
Broncos @ Chargers
Sits: NA, all others. Someone will step into Bradley Chubb (EDGE) role but I don’t know who that is yet and I’m not really interested in tracking it down at the moment, I’ll know for next week.
Los Angeles Chargers
Tier two starts: Denzel Perryman (LB)
Will them hotboyz shut down Rodgers & Company this week? Probably not but a boy can dream.
Packers @ Cowboys
Green Bay Packers
Tier two starts: Preston Smith (EDGE) Zadarius Smith (EDGE) Adrian Amos (S) Darnell Savage (S) Packers Cornerbacks, this is a good matchup to start or stream Packers corners, preferably Jaire Alexander then Kevin King.
Tier three starts: Oren Burks (LB) *If healthy*
Sits: Rashaan Gary (EDGE) BJ Goodson (LB) *Playing time for both*
Tier one starts: Leighton Vander Esch (LB) Jaylon Smith (LB) Demarcus Lawrence (DE) Cowboys Cornerbacks, this is an ideal matchup to start or stream Cowboys corners, preferably Chidobe Awuzie and Byron Jones.
Tier three starts: Maliek Collins (DT)
Sits: Sean Lee (LB) *Playing time*
This weeks matchup is literally perfect for this man.
Colts @ Chiefs
Tier one starts: Darius Leonard (LB) *If healthy* Anthony Walker (LB) *Tier two if Leonard plays, one if not* Colts Cornerbacks, this is an ideal matchup to start or stream Colts corners, preferably Kenny Moore then Rock Ya Sin. Clayton Geathers (S) *If healthy*
Tier three starts: Jabaal Sheard (DE) Al Quadin Muhammad (DE)
Sits: Margus Hunt (DT) *Playing time*
Kansas City Chiefs
Jimmy GQ, that beautiful piece of man meat, better watch out cause this monster rarely has two bad weeks in a row.
Browns @ 49ers
Sits: Browns Cornerbacks, this is not an ideal matchup to start or stream Browns corners and there are plenty of better matchups elsewhere this week.
San Francisco 49ers
Sits: Solomon Thomas (DE,DT) *Playing time*
***Please make sure to check the inactives that come out each Sunday before the games start to make sure your players aren’t a surprise inactive due to a surprise injury. Obviously if I have any of these guys listed as a start of any kind and they are inactive DO NOT START THEM. This article is written usually days before the games and surprise injuries can and will happen, make sure you stay up to date to avoid getting a surprise zero in your lineup***
***These are only suggestions ultimately it’s your decision who you start or sit. If a player gets hurt or has a bad game it happens it’s part of the game and not the result of me using a voodoo doll with your fantasy teams name on it. I wish you all nothing but the best and hope you win all your matchups this and every week. Take home that hardware.***
Keep an eye out for my instant reaction and defensive waivers article dropping during the week next week, likely Thursday morning. I’ll be covering all the production and playing time from every single IDP relevant player and giving you options for defensive waivers. We’ll go over the weeks results and make sure you are ahead of the curve for getting any of those surprise studs AKA Darius Leonard last year. The next weeks start or sit will drop next Saturday morning and the Thursday night games start or sit will be in Tweet form (@Orangeman3142). Also make sure and catch our weekly podcast on all your pod catching sites dropping Tuesday night or Wednesday morning all season long. Idpguys.org will continue to be your one stop shop for all things IDP.
Thank you for reading and good luck in this weeks matchups.
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