Can Maxx Crosby keep up the hot pace?
This article series will be set up exactly the same as last year’s was. For the Thursday night games, I will be tweeting the start or sit on Twitter (@Orangeman3142). This article will publish weekly on Saturday morning and will cover all of the Sunday games and the Monday night game as well.
Last year I was writing four thousand word articles describing the thought process behind all these “decisions” (start or sit and what tier of expected production). In an effort to cover every IDP relevant player and every matchup and team I’ve cut that part of this process out, for the record though I use past production, playing time, expected game flow and trends of the offense each IDP player is going up against as well as gut instinct and projections from places such as MFL, Yahoo, ESPN and Sleeper to inform these decisions.
If you’re looking for an explanation for a particular player feel free to DM me on Twitter, @Orangeman3142.
This is year sixteen of IDP for me so I’m not just throwing darts here and the two articles and one podcast I do weekly take more than enough time so this is what it’s going to be, if you’re looking for more detail for as to why certain players are starts or sits I’m sure there are articles out there that do that, it just won’t be this one. Also, I’m doing this for free and because I enjoy it so I’m going to have fun with it if you can’t handle jokes I would abort mission now, no harm no foul.
These start or sit decisions are only suggestions and in the end, the responsibility for your lineup is ultimately yours and yours alone. I’ll do my best to be as accurate as possible each week. These decisions I’m recommending are the same ones I’m making in my own lineups so we sink or swim together if you do decide to take any of this advice. Good luck in your matchups this week. Let’s get that hardware.
Every single game, team and IDP relevant player will be covered in this article series all year from start to finish. The production will be divided into categories like last year, this is how it looks:
Tier 1 Production: These players have the best matchups based on their playing time, past production, talent level, and opportunity. They have the most solid floor and a terrific ceiling. If you need guaranteed production these players are the best bet to get that for you. These will likely be obvious most of the time.
Tier 2 Production: These players will get you some points but are missing something that makes them your best choice. This could be a lack of playing time, talent or some other factor that hurts their chances at an outstanding performance. These players are usually a good option in deeper leagues with large rosters or all IDP leagues.
Tier 3 Production: These players are a shot in the dark. These are starts you will likely only make in larger leagues with huge rosters or during bye weeks or for short term injury replacements. There’s a chance it could work out but not a great one due to any number of factors including lack of playing time, talent or ideal matchup. This tier is as close to “sit” as you can get while still having some value. These players are mostly used in larger leagues with huge rosters and in all IDP leagues.
Sit: Pretty easy, sit em. For any number of reasons from a nagging injury to lack of playing time, talent or ideal matchup these players should NOT be started this week. I will be wrong on these occasionally throughout the season but at the time of publishing the players in this category are far more likely to bust and get you nothing rather than have a good or great week.
***Player situations change due to injury and other factors, this article was written days before Sunday so please pay attention and adjust your lineup accordingly ***
***If I don’t mention a player they are a sit or just not on my radar yet which likely means they should be a sit. If a player is inactive or injured after this article is published please use common sense and sit them. Check the inactive list at 11:40 AM eastern time and 3:40 PM eastern time on ESPN and NFL websites to check for surprise inactives each Sunday***
Last week I made approximately 238 “decisions” (start or sit) and got 188 of them correct or in the ballpark and 50 incorrect or not even close for a 78% correct rate. My average for all of last season was 74% correct overall and through this week we are holding at 75% correct for this season. Let’s dive into this week’s games.
***For any “EDGE” players listed the rule of thumb is to drop them a level in expected production from where they are listed if you start them as a regular linebacker instead of in a specific “Edge” or “OLB” slot in your league. This is due to the inconsistent nature of production for these players being sack dependent for the majority of their points. If your league has an “Edge” or “OLB” slot to plug them in to then everyone takes the same risk putting those players in that slot each week, however if you choose to use these players in a regular linebacker slot there’s a good chance they don’t get a sack and you end up with little to no points from them.
They are a boom or bust option when used in a regular linebacker slot. Keep that in mind as you play Shaq Barrett or Whitney Mercilus, there will be weeks where they don’t have any sacks and it won’t be pretty if you started them in a regular linebacker slot and your opponent started a guy like KJ Wright in that same slot when KJ gets his usual 4-8 tackles and you’re down that many fantasy points in just that one player to player matchup. We’ve already seen multiple weeks where both Mercilus and Barrett did nothing at all and if you played them in a regular linebacker slot it might have cost you a win. Buyer beware.***
Jessie Bates and the Bengals IDP corps gets a nice matchup against a suddenly relevant Jets offense.
Jets @ Bengals
New York Jets
Tier one starts: Jamal Adams (S)
Sits: CJ Mosley (LB) *Inactive*
Sits: NA, all others
Jayon Brown returned with the vengeance of three day of Chipotle last week.
Titans @ Colts
Tier one starts: Kevin Byard (S) Jayon Brown (LB)
Tier three starts: Titans Cornerbacks, preferably Ryan & Jackson, this is just an OK matchup to start or stream Titans corners.
Sits: Bobby Okereke (LB) *Playing time*
Will the Gerry-pocalypse get better or worse this week?
Eagles @ Dolphins
Tier one starts: Fletcher Cox (DT)
Tier two starts: Malcolm Jenkins (S) Nigel Bradham (LB) Derek Barnett (DE) Brandon Graham (DE) Eagles Cornerbacks, preferably Mills and Darby, this is a decent matchup to start or stream Eagles corners.
Tier one starts: Jerome Baker (LB)
Sits: Taco Charlton (DE) *Playing time*
Could this be our newest Messiah?
Packers @ Giants
Green Bay Packers
Tier three starts: Keith Fackrell (LB)
Sits: BJ Goodson (LB) Rashaan Gary (EDGE) Oren Burks (LB)
New York Giants
Sits: Jabrill Peppers (S) *Injured and out*
It would be nice if this guy got some playing time again.
Browns @ Steelers
Tier three starts: Browns Cornerbacks, preferably Ward & Williams, this is not a great matchup at all to start or stream Browns corners.
Sits: Vince Williams (LB)
Ioannidis and Allen, clapper of cheeks both.
Redskins @ Panthers
Tier three starts: Redskins Cornerbacks, preferably Dunbar & Norman, Moreau if Norman inactive, this isn’t a great matchup to stream or start Skins corners anyways. Ryan Kerrigan (EDGE) Montez Sweat (EDGE) Shaun Dion Hamilton (LB)
Sits: Troy Apke (S) *No longer IDP relevant since Nicholson returned from injury*
Tier three starts: Panthers Cornerbacks, preferably Bradberry & Jackson, this is just an OK matchup to start or stream Panthers corners. Tre Boston (S) Gerald McCoy (DT) Bruce Irvin (EDGE) Dontari Poe (DT)
Sits: All others
Will we get good or bad Barrett this week?
Buccaneers @ Jaguars
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sits: All others
Tier two starts: Quincy Williams (LB) *If the Jaguars defensive staff decides to play someone other than Quincy Williams this week I will not be told about it ahead of time, I don’t work for the Jaguars. If you decide to play him this week that’s completely your decision and if it goes south I don’t want to hear about it* Myles Jack (LB) Josh Allen (DE) Ronnie Harrison (S) *If healthy*
Tier three starts: Jarrod Wilson (S)
Sits: All others
Can the niners defensive line slow down Lamar Jackson this week?
49ers @ Ravens
San Francisco 49ers
Tier three starts: Solomon Thomas (DE) DJ Jones (DT)
Sits: Dee Ford (EDGE ) *Playing time*
Tier one starts: NA, no consistency in production or real “stud” producer on this team except maybe at corner with Peters since he arrived.
Tier two starts: Chuck Clark (S) Matthew Judon (EDGE) Ravens Cornerbacks, preferably Peters & Humphrey then Smith, this is a good matchup to start or stream Ravens corners.
Tier three starts: Earl Thomas (S) Ferguson & Bowser (LB) *I wouldn’t play either of them but technically they get enough snaps most weeks to possibly be IDP relevant in super deep leagues*
Sits: Patrick Onwuasor (LB) All others
Can the cheek clapper supreme get back to business this week?
Rams @ Cardinals
Los Angeles Rams
Sits: Troy Reeder (LB) *Playing time*
Tier two starts: Terrell Suggs (EDGE) Cardinals Cornerbacks, preferably Murphy & Peterson, this is a good matchup to start or stream Rams corners.
Sits: Deonte Thompson (S) *Playing time*
Guess who’s back this week? Supposedly.
Chargers @ Broncos
Los Angeles Chargers
Tier three starts: Reyshawn Jenkins (S) Jatavis Brown (LB) or Drue Tranquil (LB) *Brown if Tranquil doesn’t play* Chargers Cornerbacks, preferably Davis & Heyward then King, this is just an OK matchup to start or stream Chargers corners.
Sits: Jerry Tillery (DT) *Playing time*
Tier two starts: Von Miller (EDGE) Broncos Cornerbacks, preferably Jackson or either Harris, this is a good matchup to start or stream Broncos corners.
Sits: Josey Jewell (LB) *Playing time, injury*
Chris Jones looks to put in some work this week.
Raiders @ Chiefs
Tier one starts: Eric Harris (S) Raiders Cornerbacks, preferably Worley & Mullen, this is an ideal matchup to start or stream Raiders corners.
Sits: All others
Kansas City Chiefs
Tier one starts: Frank Clark (DE) Chris Jones (DT)
Will we get good Jamie Collins or shit Jamie Collins this week?
Patriots @ Texans
New England Patriots
Tier one starts: Jamie Collins (LB) Stephon Gilmore (CB)
Tier two starts: NA, and even calling Collins a tier one is crazy, Gilmore should eat though this is a matchup made for him. Patriots Corners, preferably Gilmore who is a tier one this week, then you would need to look up who else plays corner for the Patriots cause that changes often and I won’t help you make a mistake.
Sits: All others, massive inconsistency in both production and playing time week to week
Sits: All others
Will Danielle Hunter stand up to pee this week?
Vikings @ Seahawks
Tier three starts: Andrew Sendejo (S)
Sits: All others
Tier one starts: Bobby Wagner (LB) KJ Wright (LB)
Sits: All others
***Please make sure to check the inactives that come out each Sunday before the games start to make sure your players aren’t a surprise inactive due to a surprise injury. Obviously, if I have any of these guys listed as a start of any kind and they are inactive DO NOT START THEM. This article is written usually days before the games and surprise injuries can and will happen, make sure you stay up to date to avoid getting a surprise zero in your lineup***
***These are only suggestions ultimately it’s your decision who you start or sit. If a player gets hurt or has a bad game it happens it’s part of the game and not the result of me using a voodoo doll with your fantasy team’s name on it. I wish you all nothing but the best and hope you win all your matchups this and every week. Take home that hardware.***
Keep an eye out for my instant reaction and defensive waivers article dropping during the week next week, likely Thursday morning. I’ll be covering all the production and playing time from every single IDP relevant player and giving you options for defensive waivers. We’ll go over the week’s results and make sure you are ahead of the curve for getting any of those surprise studs AKA Darius Leonard last year. The next week’s start or sit will drop next Saturday morning and the Thursday night games start or sit will be in Tweet form (@Orangeman3142). Also, make sure and catch our weekly podcast on all your podcatching sites dropping Tuesday night or Wednesday morning all season long. Idpguys.org will continue to be your one-stop-shop for all things IDP.
Thank you for reading and good luck in this week’s matchups. Make sure you’re following @IDP_Dude and @JoeythetoothIDP to make sure you’re covered from all angles in regards to waivers, starts and sits and general IDP information, the three of us handle the Lions share of the IDP writing here at the site.
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