This article series will be set up exactly the same as last years was. For the Thursday night games I will be tweeting the start or sit on Twitter (@Orangeman3142). This article will publish weekly on Saturday morning and will cover all of the Sunday games and the Monday night game as well.
Every single game, team and IDP relevant player will be covered in this article series all year from start to finish. The production will be divided into categories like last year, this is how it looks.
Tier 1 Production: These players have the best matchups based on their playing time, past production, talent level and opportunity. They have the most solid floor and a terrific ceiling. If you need guaranteed production these players are the best bet to get that for you. These will likely be obvious most of the time.
Tier 2 Production: These players will get you some points but are missing something that makes them your best choice. This could be a lack of playing time, talent or some other factor that hurts their chances at an outstanding performance. These players are usually a good option in deeper leagues with large rosters or all IDP leagues.
Tier 3 Production: These players are a shot in the dark. These are starts you will likely only make in larger leagues with huge rosters or during bye weeks or for short term injury replacements. There’s a chance it could work out but not a great one due to any number of factors including lack of playing time, talent or ideal matchup. This tier is as close to “sit” as you can get while still having some value. These players are mostly used in larger leagues with huge rosters and in all IDP leagues.
Sit: Pretty easy, sit em. For any number of reasons from a nagging injury to lack of playing time, talent or ideal matchup these players should NOT be started this week. I will be wrong on these occasionally throughout the season but at the time of publishing the players in this category are far more likely to bust and get you nothing rather than have a good or great week.
When I first started writing this start or sit series I would explain why each player ended up in each tier of expected production, and while it was nice to provide the thinking behind these decisions, I was ending up with four thousand word articles and only covering a few of the matchups each week. My goal was to cover EVERY game and EVERY IDP relevant player so I’ve had to sacrifice some of the explanations in order to make sure that happens.
For the record every one of these players that ends up in one of these production tiers has quite a bit of thought that goes into why they ended up there. I look at playing time using nflgsis.com, I look at offensive and defensive team ranks for these matchups including how often each offense these IDP players are going against likes to run and pass and how effective they are at each. Each one of these IDP players talent, experience and injury history is included in these decisions. Past production and projections from sites such as MFL, Yahoo and Sleeper are also included in the decision process. Long story short a lot of thought go into these each week.
Also for the record I’ve been playing IDP fantasy football for 16 years and have been watching the NFL for 31 years. I have a diamond rating in Yahoo with 21 titles in redraft and 48 trophies overall including championships in all IDP formats, dynasty, college fantasy, draft app titles and several hundred dollars in my FanDuel account that I started on a free entry four seasons ago. I am not new at this I’ve just been roped into writing about it finally. The suggestions I give in this article I am making in my own lineups as well so we’ll all sink or swim together.
This entire process has been and will be massively transparent since we don’t hide our mistakes here at idpguys.org. No one gets them all right all the time but I will try to be as accurate as possible as often as possible. These are only suggestions, ultimately you set your lineup for the week and the best advice I can give is to trust your gut. There is no worse feeling than ignoring your gut to follow an “experts” suggestion and have it flop completely when you had the right call all along.
***Player situations change due to injury and other factors, this article was written days before Sunday so please pay attention and adjust your lineup accordingly ***
***If I don’t mention a player they are a sit or just not on my radar yet which likely means they should be a sit. If a player is inactive or injured after this article is published please use common sense and sit them. Check the inactive list at 11:30 AM eastern time on ESPN and NFL websites to check for surprise inactives each Sunday***
Last week I made approximately 200 “decisions” (start or sit) and got 151 correct or in the ballpark and 49 incorrect or not even close for a 75% correct rate. My average for all of last season was 74% correct overall and through week two we are holding at 74.5% correct for the season. Let’s dive into this weeks games.
Tremaine Edmunds quietly delivering a solid floor, week after week for years to come, Buffalo USA circa 2019
Bengals @ Bills
Tier one starts: Tremaine Edmunds (LB) Jordan Poyer (S)
DeMarcus Lawrence and the Hotboyz, Predator and Wolf turn the Redskins booty holes inside out on the road, Washington DC USA circa 2019
Dolphins @ Cowboys
Tier one starts: Jerome Baker (LB)
Tier two starts: Sam Eguavoen (LB)
Sits: Raekwon McMillan (LB) *Playing time and also bad at football* *Dolphins corners not named Howard, not an ideal matchup to start or stream Dolphins corners*
Todd Davis returns to the lineup following his 2018 career season and dumps water on the Josey Jewlle hype, Denver USA circa 2019
Broncos @ Packers
Sits: NA (Everyone else)
Green Bay Packers
Tier one starts: Blake Martinez (LB)
Sits: BJ Goodson (LB) *All other Packers corners, Alexander may be talented enough and play enough to overcome this not ideal matchup but the others won’t, start or stream corners elsewhere*
Keanu Neal returns to glory and obliterates the Eagles hopes for victory, Atlanta USA circa 2019
Falcons @ Colts
Tier two starts: Damontae Kazee (S) DaVondre Campbell (LB)
Sits: Foye Oluokon (LB) Tyeler Davison (DT) *Had a one week blowup but only played 43% of snaps in week two, not enough playing time*
Tier two starts: Justin Houston (DE) *Tier three as regular LB* Al Quadin Muhammed (DE) Clayton Geathers (S) Anthony Walker (LB) Malik Hooker (S) Colts Cornerbacks *This is an ideal matchup to start or stream Colts corners*
Tier three starts: Margus Hunt (DT)
Frank Clark grinning at his detractors and laughing at those that dropped him to waivers, Kansas City circa 2019
Ravens @ Chiefs
Tier one starts: Patrick Onwuasor (LB)
Tier three starts: Matt Judon (OLB,EDGE) *Sit as regular linebacker*
Kansas City Chiefs
Tier one starts: Frank Clark (DE) Chris Jones (DT) Anthony Hitchens (LB)
Sits: Darron Lee (LB) *Playing time*
Eric Kendricks screams into the heavens about how under the radar and consistent he is, Minnesota USA circa 2019
Raiders @ Vikings
Tier one starts: None
Sits: Maurice Hurst (DT) Raiders Cornerbacks *Not an ideal matchup to start or stream Raiders corners*
Sits: Jayron Kearse (S) *Playing time*
Jamal Adams tells Gregg Williams that his name has too many “G’s” and that he’s going to clap his cheeks, New York USA circa 2019
Jets @ Patriots
New York Jets
Tier one starts: Jamal Adams (S)
Sits: NA (Everyone else)
New England Patriots
Tier one starts: None, massive inconsistency in playing time and production across the entirety of their defense.
Tier three starts: Micheal Bennett (DE) Chase Winovich (DE)
Sits: Patriots Cornerbacks *This is not an ideal matchup to start or stream Patriots corners*
Tracy Walker asks if IDP Twitter still believes only strong safeties are IDP relevant, Detroit USA circa 2019
Lions @ Eagles
Tier one starts: Tracy Walker (S) Quandre Diggs (CB) *Tier two as safety*
Tier two starts: Damon Harrison (DT) Trey Flowers (DE) Jahlani Tavai (LB) *Tier three if Jarrad Davis plays* Jarrad Davis (LB) *If he plays* Lions Cornerbacks *This is an ideal matchup to start or stream Lions corners*
Sits: Nathan Gerry (LB) All others
Panthers @ Cardinals
Tier one starts: Luke Kuechly (LB)
Sits: All other Panthers Cornerbacks *Not an ideal matchup to start or stream Panthers corners but Jackson and Bradberry are usually matchup proof* Dontari Poe (DT)
Tier two starts: DJ Swearinger (S) Haason Redick (LB)
Tier three starts: Terrell Suggs (OLB,EDGE) *Sit as regular linebacker* Cardinals Cornerbacks *This is an OK matchup to start or stream Cardinals corners*
Sits: NA (Everyone else)
Devin White months before tonsillitis and an MCL sprain destroy the start of his promising career, NFL Draft circa 2019
Giants @ Buccaneers
New York Giants
Sits: Micheal Thomas (S) *Playing time*
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tier two starts: N’Damakong Suh (DT) Devin White (LB) *If healthy* Shaq Barrett (OLB,EDGE) *Tier three as regular LB*
Sits: Bucs Cornerbacks *Hargreaves might be talented enough to overcome this not idea matchup but sit all other Bucs corners*
JJ Watt plans on clapping the cheeks of anyone who doubts he will finish as a tier one defensive end this season despite his slow start, Houston USA circa 2019
Texans @ Chargers
Tier one starts: JJ Watt (DE) Justin Reid (S)
Tier three starts: Tashaun Gipson (S)
Sits: DJ Reader (DT) *Playing time and nose tackle not usually IDP relevant*
Los Angeles Chargers
Tier three starts: Jerry Tillery (DT)
Sits: Reyshawn Jenkins (S) Adrian Phillips (S) *Injured and out*
DeForest Buckner tells his teammate about how he ate the booty like groceries last night, San Francisco USA Circa 2019
Steelers @ 49ers
San Francisco 49ers
Sits: 49ers Cornerbacks *This is not an ideal matchup to start or stream 49ers corners*
Tier one starts: Mincah Fitzpatrick (S) Devin Bush (LB) TJ Watt (OLB,EDGE) *Tier two as regular linebacker*
Tier three starts: Steelers Cornerbacks *This is an OK matchup to start or stream Steelers corners*
Bobby Wagner clamps his cheeks together to avoid crapping his pants in front of 60,000 fans, Seattle USA circa 2019
Saints @ Seahawks
New Orleans Saints
Tier three starts: AJ Klein (LB) Trey Hendrickson (DE) Saints Cornerbacks *This is an OK matchup to start or stream Saints corners*
Tier one starts: Bobby Wagner (LB) Jadaveon Clowney (DE)
Sits: Seattle Cornerbacks *This is not an ideal matchup to start or stream Seattle corners*
Myles Garrett squats to take a dump on the field in front of the horrified onlookers, New York USA Circa 2019
Rams @ Browns
Los Angeles Rams
Sits: Samson Ebukam (LB)
Tier one starts: Myles Garrett (DE) Joe Schobert (LB) Damarious Randal (S,CB) *Tier one as corner, two as safety*
Tier three starts: Oliver Vernon (DE) Jermaine Whitehead (S) Browns Cornerbacks *This is an OK matchup to start or stream Browns corners*
Sits: NA (All others)
Khalil Mack pondering why certain IDP “experts” think he’s just as valuable as a linebacker as he was at defensive end, Chicago USA circa 2019
Bears @ Redskins
Tier two starts: Danny Trevethan (LB) Eddie Jackson (S)
Sits: All other Bears Cornerbacks *Not an ideal matchup to start or stream Bears corners not named Fuller*
Tier one starts: Landon Collins (S)
Sits: Shaun Dion Hamilton (LB) Redskins Cornerbacks *This is not an ideal matchup to start or stream Redskins corners*
***Please make sure to check the inactives that come out each Sunday before the games start to make sure your players aren’t a surprise inactive due to a surprise injury. Obviously if I have any of these guys listed as a start of any kind and they are inactive DO NOT START THEM. This article is written usually days before the games and surprise injuries can and will happen, make sure you stay up to date to avoid getting a surprise zero in your lineup***
***These are only suggestions ultimately it’s your decision who you start or sit. If a player gets hurt or has a bad game it happens it’s part of the game and not the result of me using a voodoo doll with your fantasy teams name on it. I wish you all nothing but the best and hope you win all your matchups this and every week. Take home that hardware.***
Keep an eye out for my instant reaction and defensive waivers article dropping during the week next week, likely Wednesday or Thursday morning. I’ll be covering all the production and playing time from every single IDP relevant player and giving you options for defensive waivers. We’ll go over the weeks results and make sure you are ahead of the curve for getting any of those surprise studs AKA Darius Leonard last year. The next weeks start or sit will drop next Saturday morning and the Thursday night games start or sit will be in Tweet form (@Orangeman3142). Also make sure and catch our weekly podcast on all your pod catching sites dropping Tuesday night or Wednesday morning all season long. Idpguys.org will continue to be your one stop shop for all things IDP.
Thank you for reading and good luck in this weeks matchups.
Follow Tony Johns.