IDP Start or Sit, Every Team, Every Matchup, Week Three (3) • IDP+

Myles Garrett on his way to murder Trevor Siemian in New York USA Circa 2019

This article series will be set up exactly the same as last years was. For the Thursday night games I will be tweeting the start or sit on Twitter (@Orangeman3142). This article will publish weekly on Saturday morning and will cover all of the Sunday games and the Monday night game as well.

Every single game, team and IDP relevant player will be covered in this article series all year from start to finish. The production will be divided into categories like last year, this is how it looks.

Tier 1 Production: These players have the best matchups based on their playing time, past production, talent level and opportunity. They have the most solid floor and a terrific ceiling. If you need guaranteed production these players are the best bet to get that for you. These will likely be obvious most of the time.

Tier 2 Production: These players will get you some points but are missing something that makes them your best choice. This could be a lack of playing time, talent or some other factor that hurts their chances at an outstanding performance. These players are usually a good option in deeper leagues with large rosters or all IDP leagues.

Tier 3 Production: These players are a shot in the dark. These are starts you will likely only make in larger leagues with huge rosters or during bye weeks or for short term injury replacements. There's a chance it could work out but not a great one due to any number of factors including lack of playing time, talent or ideal matchup. This tier is as close to "sit" as you can get while still having some value. These players are mostly used in larger leagues with huge rosters and in all IDP leagues.

Sit: Pretty easy, sit em. For any number of reasons from a nagging injury to lack of playing time, talent or ideal matchup these players should NOT be started this week. I will be wrong on these occasionally throughout the season but at the time of publishing the players in this category are far more likely to bust and get you nothing rather than have a good or great week.

When I first started writing this start or sit series I would explain why each player ended up in each tier of expected production, and while it was nice to provide the thinking behind these decisions, I was ending up with four thousand word articles and only covering a few of the matchups each week. My goal was to cover EVERY game and EVERY IDP relevant player so I've had to sacrifice some of the explanations in order to make sure that happens.
For the record every one of these players that ends up in one of these production tiers has quite a bit of thought that goes into why they ended up there. I look at playing time using nflgsis.com, I look at offensive and defensive team ranks for these matchups including how often each offense these IDP players are going against likes to run and pass and how effective they are at each. Each one of these IDP players talent, experience and injury history is included in these decisions. Past production and projections from sites such as MFL, Yahoo and Sleeper are also included in the decision process. Long story short a lot of thought go into these each week.
Also for the record I've been playing IDP fantasy football for 16 years and have been watching the NFL for 31 years. I have a diamond rating in Yahoo with 21 titles in redraft and 48 trophies overall including championships in all IDP formats, dynasty, college fantasy, draft app titles and several hundred dollars in my FanDuel account that I started on a free entry four seasons ago. I am not new at this I've just been roped into writing about it finally. The suggestions I give in this article I am making in my own lineups as well so we'll all sink or swim together.
This entire process has been and will be massively transparent since we don't hide our mistakes here at idpguys.org. No one gets them all right all the time but I will try to be as accurate as possible as often as possible. These are only suggestions, ultimately you set your lineup for the week and the best advice I can give is to trust your gut. There is no worse feeling than ignoring your gut to follow an "experts" suggestion and have it flop completely when you had the right call all along.

***Player situations change due to injury and other factors, this article was written days before Sunday so please pay attention and adjust your lineup accordingly ***

***If I don't mention a player they are a sit or just not on my radar yet which likely means they should be a sit. If a player is inactive or injured after this article is published please use common sense and sit them. Check the inactive list at 11:30 AM eastern time on ESPN and NFL websites to check for surprise inactives each Sunday***

Last week I made approximately 200 "decisions" (start or sit) and got 151 correct or in the ballpark and 49 incorrect or not even close for a 75% correct rate. My average for all of last season was 74% correct overall and through week two we are holding at 74.5% correct for the season. Let's dive into this weeks games.

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Johny The Greek