This article series will be set up exactly the same as last years was. For the Thursday night games I will be tweeting the start or sit on Twitter (@Orangeman3142). This article will publish weekly on Saturday morning and will cover all of the Sunday games and the Monday night game as well.
Every single game, team and IDP relevant player will be covered in this article series all year from start to finish. The production will be divided into categories like last year, this is how it looks.
Tier 1 Production: These players have the best matchups based on their playing time, past production, talent level and opportunity. They have the most solid floor and a terrific ceiling. If you need guaranteed production these players are the best bet to get that for you. These will likely be obvious most of the time.
Tier 2 Production: These players will get you some points but are missing something that makes them your best choice. This could be a lack of playing time, talent or some other factor that hurts their chances at an outstanding performance. These players are usually a good option in deeper leagues with large rosters or all IDP leagues.
Tier 3 Production: These players are a shot in the dark. These are starts you will likely only make in larger leagues with huge rosters or during bye weeks or for short term injury replacements. There’s a chance it could work out but not a great one due to any number of factors including lack of playing time, talent or ideal matchup. This tier is as close to “sit” as you can get while still having some value. These players are mostly used in larger leagues with huge rosters and in all IDP leagues.
Sit: Pretty easy, sit em. For any number of reasons from a nagging injury to lack of playing time, talent or ideal matchup these players should NOT be started this week. I will be wrong on these occasionally throughout the season but at the time of publishing the players in this category are far more likely to bust and get you nothing rather than have a good or great week.
When I first started writing this start or sit series I would explain why each player ended up in each tier of expected production, and while it was nice to provide the thinking behind these decisions, I was ending up with four thousand word articles and only covering a few of the matchups each week. My goal was to cover EVERY game and EVERY IDP relevant player so I’ve had to sacrifice some of the explanations in order to make sure that happens.
For the record every one of these players that ends up in one of these production tiers has quite a bit of thought that goes into why they ended up there. I look at playing time using nflgsis.com, I look at offensive and defensive team ranks for these matchups including how often each offense these IDP players are going against likes to run and pass and how effective they are at each. Each one of these IDP players talent, experience and injury history is included in these decisions. Past production and projections from sites such as MFL, Yahoo and Sleeper are also included in the decision process. Long story short a lot of thought go into these each week.
This entire process has been and will be massively transparent since we don’t hide our mistakes here at idpguys.org. No one gets them all right all the time but I will try to be as accurate as possible as often as possible. These are only suggestions, ultimately you set your lineup for the week and the best advice I can give is to trust your gut. There is no worse feeling than ignoring your gut to follow an “experts” suggestion and have it flop completely when you had the right call all along.
***Player situations change due to injury and other factors, this article was written days before Sunday so please pay attention and adjust your lineup accordingly ***
***If I don’t mention a player they are a sit or just not on my radar yet which likely means they should be a sit. If a player is inactive or injured after this article is published please sit them and use common sense. Check the inactive list at 11:30 AM Eastern on ESPN and NFL websites to check for surprise inactives each Sunday***
Last week I made approximately 218 “decisions” (start or sit) and got 160 correct or in the ballpark and 58 incorrect or not even close. My average for all of last season was 74% correct overall and through week one we are again holding at 74% correct. Let’s dive into week two.
Cardinals @ Ravens
Tier two starts: DJ Swearinger (S) Terrell Suggs (EDGE/OLB) *Tier three as regular LB*
Tier one starts: Patrick Onwuasor (LB)
Tier three starts: Ravens Cornerbacks *This is a decent matchup to stream or start any Ravens corners, there are better out there though so you won’t find me playing any of them this week*
Cowboys @ Redskins:
Tier three starts: Chidobe Awuzie (CB)
Sits: All others & All other Cowboys Cornerbacks *Not an ideal matchup to stream or start Dallas corners, Awuzie is probably talented enough and plays enough to overcome a bad matchup but it’s not ideal*
Tier three starts: Montae Nicholson (S) Shaun Dion Hamilton (LB) Matt Ioannidis (DE) Daron Payne (DT) Redskins Cornerbacks *Not the best matchup for streaming or starting Redskins corners but decent if in a bigger or all IDP league*
Colts @ Titans
Sits: Bobby Okereke (LB) *Insignificant playing time* Kemoko Turay (DE) *Insignificant playing time* All other Colts Cornerbacks *Kenny Moore is talented and plays enough to produce but this is not an ideal matchup to start or stream Colts corners*
Tier two starts: Kenny Vaccarro (S) Rashaan Evans (LB)
Tier three starts: Harold Landry (EDGE/OLB) *Sack dependent for his production* Titans Cornerbacks *This is a decent matchup for Titans corners, they are also the strength of their IDP production overall*
Seahawks @ Steelers
Tier two starts: Bradley McDougald (S) KJ Wright (LB) Quinton Jefferson (DT) Seahawks Cornerbacks *This is a good matchup to stream or start any Seahawks corners, personally I acquired and am starting Tre Flowers in a couple places*
Tier one starts: Devin Bush (LB) TJ Watt (EDGE/OLB) *Tier two as regular LB*
Sits: Steelers Cornerbacks *Not an ideal matchup for Steelers corners, there are better matchups to stream corner at this week*
Bills @ Giants
Tier three starts: Shaq Lawson (DE) *Only played 31% of snaps week one despite having the nice game* Micah Hyde (S) Trent Murphy (DE) Bills Cornerbacks *This isn’t the best matchup for starting or streaming Bills corners besides White, any other corners would be tier threeshot in the dark or a sit*
Sits: Siran Neal (S) *Playing time*
New York Giants:
Tier two starts: Jabrill Peppers (S)
Sits: Giants Cornerbacks *Not an ideal situation at all to stream or start any Giants corners not named Jackrabbit Jenkins, who is talented and plays enough to probably put up a decent game regardless*
49ers @ Bengals
San Francisco 49ers:
Tier three starts: 49ers Cornerbacks *This is a somewhat decent matchup to start or stream 49ers corners, the Red Rifle was actually slinging it pretty good last week and with Mixon dinged up they may have to throw more often this week*
Sits: Dre Greenlaw (LB) *Likely a flash in the pan scenario last week with Kwon Alexander getting ejected etc, if he plays as much and produces similarly this week I’ll start paying attention*
Chargers @ Lions
Los Angeles Chargers:
Tier two starts: Desmond King (CB) Thomas Davis (LB) Kyzir White (LBS) Melvin Ingram (DE) Chargers Cornerbacks *This is a good matchup to start or stream any Chargers corners* Denzel Perryman (LB) *If healthy and playing*
Sits: Justin Jones (DT) *Could do something but played more than both Mebane and Tillery last week and had almost zero production*
Sits: Jarrad Davis (LB) *Injury, there is a slight chance he plays this week but I doubt it, if he does pencil him in as tier two and fade Tavai to tier three*
Vikings @ Packers
Tier two starts: Everson Griffen (DE) Eric Kendricks (LB) Trae Waynes (CB) Xavier Rhodes (CB) *Vikings Cornerbacks, this is a good matchup to start or stream Vikings corners* Anthony Barr (EDGEOLB) Anthony Harris (S)
Tier three starts: Jayron Kearse (S) *Great week one production but only played 58% of snaps*
Sits: Stephen Weatherly (DE) *Name recognition from subbing in for Griffen last year but only played 43% of snaps in week one with little production*
Green Bay Packers:
Tier one starts: Blake Martinez (LB)
Sits: TY Summers (LB) BJ Goodson (LB) Oren Burks (LB) *Summers didn’t replace Burks as some had predicted, Goodson could this week but it’s not known and a massive risk to play him and Burks is injured and out several more weeks*
Jaguars @ Texans
Tier three starts: Najee Goode (LB) *If Quincy Williams (LB) is injured and doesn’t play, besides that he’s a sit*
Tier one starts: JJ Watt (DE) Justin Reid (S)
Tier two starts: Bernardrick McKinney (LB) Zach Cunningham (LB)
Tier three starts: Whitney Mercilus (EDGE/OLB) *Texans Cornerbacks, this is an OK matchup to start or stream Texans corners, Minshew can throw the ball anyone who played college fantasy last season knows that* Tashaun Gipson (S)
Sits: DJ Reader (DT) *Some name recognition from his hot start last year but ultimately produces too little too often*
Patriots @ Dolphins
New England Patriots:
Tier one starts: None, too inconsistent as a team by design.
Tier three starts: Chase Winovich (DE) Jamie Collins (LB) D’Onta Hightower (LB) Deatrich Wise (DE) *Patriots Cornerbacks, personally I’m not starting any Pats corners this week but they will likely be in front early and force the Dolphins to throw a lot so it’s not the worst idea ever*
Sits: Literally everyone else and even the starts are shots in the dark, Belichick morphs his team into who they need to be every week to beat their opponent which means snap percentage and past production means nothing and it’s always a shot in the dark starting any Patriots IDP
Tier two starts: Sam Eguavoen (LB) *Dolphins Cornerbacks, this is an ideal matchup to start or stream any Miami corners*
Tier three starts: Christian Wilkins (DE)
Chiefs @ Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs:
Sits: Jonathan Abrams (S) *Injured and out*
Saints @ Rams
New Orleans Saints:
Tier one starts: Cameron Jordan (DE) DeMario Davis (LB)
Los Angeles Rams:
Sits: Samson Ebukam (LB) *Playing time and production issues*
Bears @ Broncos
Tier three starts: Kyle Fuller (CB) Roy Robertson Harris (DE)
Sits: *Bears Cornerbacks, this is not an ideal matchup for starting or streaming Bears corners*
Tier three starts: Derek Wolfe (DE)
Sits: *Broncos Cornerbacks, this is not an ideal matchup to start or stream Broncos corners this week*
Eagles @ Falcons
Sits: Vinny Curry (DE) *Playing time and production issues*
Sits: Damonte Kazee (CB) *Only played 21% of snaps last week, not ideal at all*
Browns @ Jets
Sits: *Browns Cornerbacks, this is not an ideal matchup at all for starting or streaming Browns corners, Ward is probably talented enough to overcome this but it’s still a shot in the dark*
New York Jets:
Tier two starts: *Jets Cornerbacks, this is an ideal matchup to start or stream Jets corners* Blake Cashman (LB) *If Mosley doesn’t play*
Sits: NA, just make sure you have a backup plan for if Mosley can’t go this week since it’s a Monday night game*
***Please make sure to check the inactives that come out each Sunday before the games start to make sure your players aren’t a surprise inactive due to a surprise injury. Obviously if I have any of these guys listed as a start of any kind and they are inactive DO NOT START THEM. This article is written usually days before the games and surprise injuries can and will happen, make sure you stay up to date to avoid getting a surprise zero in your lineup***
Keep an eye out for my instant reaction and defensive waivers article dropping during the week next week, likely Wednesday or Thursday morning. I’ll be covering all the production and playing time from every single IDP relevant player and giving you options for defensive waivers. We’ll go over the week two results and make sure you are ahead of the curve for getting any of those surprise studs AKA Darius Leonard last year. The week three start or sit will drop next Saturday and the Thursday night games start or sit will be in Tweet form (@Orangeman3142). Also make sure and catch our weekly podcast on all your pod catching sites dropping Tuesday night all season long. Idpguys.org will continue to be your one stop shop for all things IDP.
Thank you for reading and good luck in all your week two matchups.
Follow Tony Johns.