• Jaelan Phillips: 2023 IDP Breakout

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    Maybe you think he's already broken out, but Jaelan Phillips will take it to another level in 2023. Let's dive into my top IDP breakout, Jaelan Phillips, and why to buy now.


    Former top pick Jaelan Phillips has been solid so far in his first two seasons. He's totaled 15.5 sacks, which while solid, hasn't set the world on fire. Sacks can vary year over year, but his ability to generate pressure shows a high ceiling. Our consensus dynasty rankings have IDP breakout Jaelan Phillips outside the top 10 dynasty edges. Buy Phillips now, and consider him a sneaky round-two IDP-only redraft pick.

    First Two Years

    Let's compare Phillips to a few recent IDP studs, T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett, and Nick Bosa. Yes, you read that list correctly. As rookies, Phillips bested Garrett (11 games) and T.J. Watt in sacks 8.5 to 7 for the AFC North duo, and narrowly fell short to Bosa by half a sack. The biggest difference? In year two each of the other three jumped to 13 (Watt), 13.5 (Garrett), and 15.5 (Bosa, third season after second-year ACL tear). Phillips only hit seven sacks last year.

    This doesn't take into account the variance of sack production though, so let's look at underlying stats. From PFF's data, the three players used in the comparison were between 11 and 17 QB hits, 28 and 42 hurries, and a 17.2% to 20.7% win rate on pass rushes. Jaelan Phillips had 17 QB hits, 44 hurries, and a 19.6% win rate. His closest comp of the three was Nick Bosa who lead all stats and posted the most sacks.

    So why would this matter? Those players were all priced as elite guys after that second-year breakout. Phillips may not be depending on his manager. He has Bradley Chubb opposite him all season to attract attention as well and now has a new coordinator who is worth looking into how he has supported pass rushers.

    Coordinator Change

    While unlikely to affect much, it's worth discussing the change in Miami. Going from Josh Boyer to Vic Fangio is a great move for Miami in general, but is it specifically for elite pass rushers? The data is somewhat limited with stars but nothing that is a big concern. Without stars, he's historically rotated edge defenders but both Khalil Mack in Chicago and Von Miller in Denver played near full-time roles.

    Not only were they full-time guys, but in each of their one seasons under Fangio's tutelage they posted top-seven total pressures among NFL edges. Miller only totaled eight sacks, but that appears to just be due to poor luck. One concern, however, is the total tackle upside. In an albeit limited sample size, neither exceeded 50 tackles in this scheme, something Mack had done his first four seasons.

    Jaelan Phillips posted 61 tackles in 2022, which is top-24 among all DLs. Assuming Fangio doesn't hurt Phillips there, the baseline for him is fantastic, as that tackle total is nearly identical to Myles Garrett in 2022. This would give Phillips a great floor and potentially a high ceiling.

    2023 IDP Breakout Jaelan Phillips

    So what does all this mean for IDP breakout Jaelan Phillips? The floor is solid, as 61 tackles are similar to both Garrett and Matthew Judon. Those two posted 16 and 15.5 sacks, respectively, in 2022, and as a result finished as DL4 and DL5 in IDP123 scoring.

    With a fantastic offense in Miami forcing teams to score to keep up, Phillips will see plenty of passing opportunities against him. I'm buying a 24-year-old DL who should jump into a tier where he'll be thought of among Bosa, Watt, and Garrett next offseason. His price will skyrocket in the 2023 season when he rebounds to a 15-ish sack season with better sack luck.

    Conclusion

    Jaelan Phillips is likely worth "buying high" on in dynasty leagues as well as paying up for in redraft. He is an ideal round-two target for me. If he lives up to the underlying stats he's posted so far and the sacks come, a potential top-five DL-type season is coming in the near future. I'd trade my 1.01 (Will Anderson) in dynasty leagues for him, as well as anyone below Garrett along the DL for him. He is my Edge 6 and IDP 9 overall.

    An exclusive look at the consensus rankings you can have access to as a subscriber! Click here!

    Thanks for checking out my 2023 IDP breakout Jaelan Phillips. Happy trading for the next elite IDP edge player! Feel free to contact me on Twitter to tell me what you love or yell at me that I’m an idiot!


    Thank you for reading my IDP Breakout Jaelan Phillips article! Please follow me for more content via Twitter @FFFBallers and @IDPGuys, and check out my IDP Guys author page and the IDP Guys website.

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