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The IDP Guys’ NFL Week 1 Start/Sit List: Offense

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Find success in Week 1 with these start/sit decisions for the Offensive side of the ball!


NFL Week 1 is finally here! It is now time to bear the fruit of all your research and draft day preparations. Instead of being guided by a players’ season-long projections, we must now turn to the weekly matchups that are laid before us. The real fun (and stress) begins as we make the critical lineup decisions for optimal output.

In this article, I will reveal the roadmap to fantasy success for every matchup on the NFL Week 1 slate. I will use a system of “Trust, If You Must, and Bust” to express strong, weak, and avoidable starting lineup decisions.

 

The “Trust, If You Must, and Bust” System:

Trust” = Strong start, a player who should be started in all formats!

If You Must” = Weak start, a player who is good enough to be a starter, but faces a tough matchup or holds an unclear opportunity in a good offense. Some caution should be used while the risk is recognized, as this is often league format dependent.

If you play in a shallow league, I would lean towards benching this player if you have a decent replacement option. In a deep league, I would lean towards starting, since the options may be more scarce. Either way, expectations should be managed.

Bust” = Keep on your bench, at least for now. These players should be avoided since stronger options at the relative position should be considered first. These are players who fit into one of the following categories:

  1. A player in a tough matchup or currently holds ambiguous weekly opportunities in the offense.
  2. A strong bench stash for season-long purposes but currently in a “wait and see” period. Wait and see if their role expands for starter caliber consideration. For example, this type of player may be a strong backup RB behind a stud in an elite offense or could be in line for a big workload if the starter misses time.
  3. Currently lacking a clear offensive opportunity in either a projected good or bad offense
  4. Is too volatile on a week-to-week basis. There is no need to play boom or bust type players if you can help it.


Weekly Start/Sit Decision Reminders

Be sure to always be mindful of weekly injury reports and gameday inactive announcements as this could pivot a weak starter into a strong starter!

For example, RB Saquon Barkley. Backup RB Devontae Booker gets starter consideration if Barkley is ruled out late Sunday morning before kick-off. If Barkley is ruled out, Booker would fit into the “If You Must” category due to the enhanced opportunity, but may be lacking in quality relative to other roster options.

Be sure to always leave the FLEX spot(s) free of Thursday night players!

 

The Week 1 Slate

Week 1 start/sit decisions typically aren’t too difficult since we can justify our draft day results as the basis for setting the lineup. Although, what may seem like an automatic decision based on your draft sometimes requires some deeper consideration…

 

Thursday Night Football Season Opener

Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Cowboys

Trust – QB Dak Prescott, WR Amari Cooper, WR CeeDee Lamb

If You Must – RB Ezekiel Elliott

Bust – WR Michael Gallup, TE Blake Jarwin

Buccaneers

Trust – QB Tom Brady, WR Mike Evans, WR Chris Godwin

If You Must – WR Antonio Brown

Bust – RB Ronald Jones, RB Leonard Fournette, TE Rob Gronkowski

Sunday Early Afternoon slate

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons
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Eagles

Trust – QB Jalen Hurts, RB Miles Sanders, WR DeVonta Smith

If You Must – TE Dallas Goedert,

Bust – WR Jalen Reagor, TE Zach Ertz

Falcons

Trust – QB Matt Ryan, WR Calvin Ridley, TE Kyle Pitts

If You Must – RB Mike Davis, WR Russell Gage

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Steelers

Trust  – RB Najee Harris, WR Diontae Johnson, WR Chase Claypool

If You Must – WR Juju Smith-Schuster

Bust – TE Eric Ebron

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Bills

Trust – QB Josh Allen, WR Stefon Diggs

Bust – RB Zack Moss, RB Devin Singletary, WR Gabriel Davis, WR Emmanuel Sanders, WR Cole Beasley

Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals
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Vikings

Trust – RB Dalvin Cook, WR Justin Jefferson, WR Adam Thielen

If You Must – QB Kirk Cousins

Bust – TE Tyler Conklin, TE Chris Herndon

Bengals

Trust – QB Joe Burrow, WR Tee Higgins, WR Tyler Boyd

If You Must – RB Joe Mixon, WR Ja’Marr Chase

San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions
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49ers

Trust – TE George Kittle, WR Brandon Aiyuk, WR Deebo Samuel

If You Must – RB Raheem Mostert

Bust – RB Trey Sermon

Lions

Trust – TE TJ Hockenson, RB D’Andre Swift

Bust – QB Jared Goff, RB Jamaal Williams, WR Tyrell Williams

 

Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans
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Cardinals

Trust – QB Kyler Murray, WR DeAndre Hopkins, RB Chase Edmonds

Bust – RB James Conner, WR Rondale Moore, WR Christian Kirk

Titans

Trust – QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Derrick Henry, WR AJ Brown, WR Julio Jones

Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts
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Seahawks

Trust – QB Russell Wilson, WR DK Metcalf, WR Tyler Lockett, RB Chris Carson

Bust – TE Gerald Everett

Colts

Trust – RB Jonathon Taylor

If You Must – QB Carson Wentz, WR Michael Pittman

Bust – RB Nyheim Hines, WR Parris Campbell

Los Angeles Chargers at Washington Football Team
Chargers

Trust – RB Austin Ekeler, WR Keenan Allen

If You Must – QB Justin Herbert, WR Mike Williams

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Football Team

Trust – RB Antonio Gibson, WR Terry McLaurin, TE Logan Thomas

If You Must – QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Bust – WR Curtis Samuel, RB J.D. McKissic

New York Jets at Carolina Panthers
Jets

Trust – WR Corey Davis

If You Must – QB Zach Wilson, TE Tyler Kroft

Bust – RB Michael Carter, RB Tevin Coleman, RB Ty Johnson, WR Elijah Moore

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Panthers

Trust – RB Christian McCaffrey, WR DJ Moore, WR Robby Anderson

If You Must – QB Sam Darnold

Bust – WR Terrace Marshall

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
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Jaguars

Trust – RB James Robinson

If You Must – QB Trevor Lawrence, WR Lavishka Shenault, WR DJ Chark, WR Marvin Jones

Texans

Trust – WR Brandin Cooks

If You Must – QB Tyrod Taylor

Bust – RB David Johnson, RB Phillip Lindsay, RB Mark Ingram

Sunday Mid Afternoon Slate

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs
Browns

Trust – RB Nick Chubb, RB Kareem Hunt, WR Odell Beckham Jr.

If You Must – WR Jarvis Landry, QB Baker Mayfield

Bust – TE Austin Hooper

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Chiefs

Trust – QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Tyreek Hill, TE Travis Kelce, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Bust – WR Mecole Hardman

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Dolphins

Trust – RB Myles Gaskin, TE Mike Gesicki

If You Must – QB Tua Tagovailoa, WR Jaylen Waddle, WR DeVante Parker

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Patriots

Trust – RB Damien Harris, TE Jonnu Smith

If You Must – WR Jakobi Meyers, TE Hunter Henry

Bust – WR Nelson Agholor

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (in Jacksonville)
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Packers

Trust – QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Davante Adams, RB Aaron Jones,

If You Must – TE Robert Tonyan

Bust – RB AJ Dillon, WR Randall Cobb

Saints

Trust – RB Alvin Kamara

If You Must – QB Jameis Winston, WR Marquez Callaway

Bust – TE Adam Trautman

Denver Broncos at New York Giants
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Broncos

Trust – WR Jerry Jeudy, TE Noah Fant

If You Must – WR Courtland Sutton, RB Melvin Gordon, QB Teddy Bridgewater

Bust – RB Javonte Williams

Giants

Trust – RB Saquon Barkley

If You Must – WR Kenny Golladay, WR Sterling Shepard, QB Daniel Jones

Bust – TE Evan Engram, WR Kadarius Toney

 

Sunday Night Football

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams
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Bears

Trust – RB David Montgomery, WR Allen Robinson

If You Must – WR Darnell Mooney

Bust – QB Andy Dalton

Rams

Trust – QB Matthew Stafford, WR Robert Woods, WR Cooper Kupp

If You Must – RB Darrell Henderson, TE Tyler Higbee

Bust – RB Sony Michel

Monday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders
Ravens

Trust – QB Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews

Bust – WR Marquise Brown, Any current RB

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Raiders

Trust – TE Darren Waller

If You Must – RB Josh Jacobs, QB Derek Carr

Bust – RB Kenyan Drake, WR Bryan Edwards, WR Henry Ruggs


Good luck and enjoy the games!
Thank you for reading! You can find more of my work on my IDP Guys Author Page. Feel free to reach out anytime on Twitter at @FantasyLadder for any fantasy football-related advice, questions, or discussion so you can climb the ladder of fantasy football success with me.
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