With Aaron Rodgers' future unclear, what does it mean for the Packers' offense moving forward?
Aaron Rodgers is becoming more disgruntled and many thought that McCarthy being gone would fix the problem. That doesn't seem to be the case. The team refused to use top picks for WRs and instead drafted a QB in the first round. It came to a head this offseason when Rodgers said he wanted out, and there was speculation a deal could be done before the draft. What does this mean for the Packers' offense?
We are still in a waiting pattern, but it looks more and more like the relationship is fractured and cannot be repaired. So what will the Packers' offense look like with Jordan Love at the helm? Let's take a look at all the fantasy-relevant pieces.
2021 Packers' Offense
Losing an elite QB will hinder any offense, so I see the Packers leaning more on the run game. The trend the last two years with Rodgers has been more of a balanced attack with the rushing percentage going from 34% to 41% to 45%. With an experienced QB and two very good RBs, I increased the potential rushing percentage to 51% for the Packers. Let's dive into how that will affect the fantasy-relevant players.
Aaron Jones
Jones, in a surprise move, was given a new deal in Green Bay and has shown the last two years that he is one of the top RBs in this offense. He rushed over 1,000 yards in both years and combined for 30 TDs and over 45 receptions a year. I think, without Rodgers, Jones will be less efficient and have a slight decrease in fantasy production but will still be a top 12 RB.
- Projections: 230 attempts, 1,216 rushing yards, 64 targets, 42 receptions, 332 rec yards, and 11 total TDs for 262.89 fantasy points, 15.46 PPG, as RB11
AJ Dillon
Dillon showed why the Packers drafted him in limited time last year when Aaron Jones went down because of injury. While it was only a small sample, Dillon averaged over 5 ypc for 242 yards and 2 TDs. He will not be the receiving threat backup that Jamaal Williams was, so the ceiling is lower with few receiving targets. Unless Jones misses time, Dillon is a flex play at best but is valuable as a stash in Dynasty formats.
- Projections: 184 attempts, 900 rushing yards, 17 targets, 10 recs, 68 rec yards, and 6 total TDs for 144.51 fantasy points, 15.11 PPG, as RB37
Davante Adams
Adams has made it obvious that, paired with Rodgers, he is a top-five receiver. Without Rodgers, he has shown that he can still be dangerous. In 2017, he played eight games without Rodgers and finished as WR9 in PPG. There undoubtedly will be a drop-off, but not nearly as much as people think.
If you look at per game stats from 2017 without Rodgers, and the last four years with Rodgers, Adams is only averaging 1.5 targets, 1 rec, 20 ypc, and .2 TDs fewer per game. Adams said he will play this year in Green Bay, regardless of Rodgers' situation, but after that, it is unknown where he could end up. That doubt pushes him down in dynasty, but in both redraft and dynasty, he is still a top 10 WR.
- Projections: 147 targets, 100 receptions, 1,259 rec yards, and 9 total TDs for 295.09 fantasy points, 17.36 PPG, as WR9
Robert Tonyan
Tonyan burst onto the scene in 2020, showing great chemistry with Rodgers on the way to 52 receptions, 586 yards, 11 TDs, and an 88% catch rate. He was bound to have regression, having so many TDs with Rodgers. Without Rodgers, his numbers will take a huge hit.
With fewer throwing opportunities on the offense, a much less accurate passer could spell a huge drop in production and an unreliable fantasy option at TE. Tonyan is still a fine late target at TE, but his upside is very limited without Rodgers.
- Projections: 54 targets, 38 receptions, 425 rec yards, and 4 total TDs for 104.74 fantasy points, 6.16 PPG, as TE22
Amari Rodgers
The Packers finally got Aaron Rodgers some receiving help in the draft, but it seems it is too late. The Packers have been looking for a good slot receiver since Randall Cobb and Amari Rodgers could fit that role. With Jordan Love at QB, can more than one receiver be supported? I like Amari Rodgers' potential, but he is more of a stash in Dynasty.
- Projections: 59 Targets, 37 Recs, 385 Rec Yards, 3 Total Tds - 93.56 Fantasy Points, 5.50 PPG, WR 83
Jordan Love
So how does the QB replacement do in Aaron Rodgers' absence? Love did not have a great college year coming into the 2020 draft and many thought he should not have been picked in the first round. He is very athletic, but there is a question about his accuracy and ability to play against better competition.
Love's running ability will help salvage some games in fantasy. Even in SF, he should not be trusted week in and week out until he shows he has improved as a passer. Love does have some intrigue as a stash in Dynasty leagues but with this news of Aaron Rodgers wanting out, the cost is likely too high to obtain him.
- Projections: 320 Completions, 490 Attempts, 3,761 Pass Yards, 22 Pass TDs, 15 Ints, 77 Rush Attempts, 385 Rush Yards, and 5 Rush TDs - 276.95 Fantasy Points, 16.29 PPG, QB 27
Summary
The Packers are in a tough spot now with Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. Neither player looks like they will be with the team long-term. The offense looks to be changing to more run-heavy and will need to see if Jordan Love can lead them in the future. For 2021, there are still fantasy players you want from Green Bay. Their ceiling is a lot lower, though, and I would not be willing to pick them as high.
Many think there could be a trade that could change the outcomes for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. It will be interesting how the Packers try to fix the mess that they have put themselves in.
THANKS FOR CHECKING OUT MY THOUGHTS ON THE PACKERS WITHOUT RODGERS GOING INTO 2021. PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK OUT MY ARTICLES ON OFFENSIVE FANTASY PLAYERS AT IDPGUYS.ORGÂ AND FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER ATÂ @HAYEB3.
