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Sleeper Rookie Value – Rankings vs ADP Analysis

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On the way to identifying sleeper number one, let’s compare rankings vs ADP to find the three biggest values in June dynasty start-ups.


This time of year is well known for having more than its fair share of “rookie fever” in the dynasty community, but can a rookie be a sleeper? Post-NFL draft and rookie camps, now heading into mandatory camp territory, rookies are all the talk as the hot “new toy” in their respective offenses.

While the hype leads to many rookies being severely over-drafted (which may be a nice article topic for another time), some rookies, on the other hand, do not get the same levels of “hype” and fall through the cracks in start-up drafts.

These are the sleepers we are looking at here today:

3. George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

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  • IDP Guys June ADP – 153.75 (late-10th in 12 team leagues)
  • DynastyBison rank – #98
  • IDP Guys consensus rank – 133.5

Once upon a time, pre-2021 season, Pickens was one of the most highly anticipated wide receivers in the 2022 class. Insert an offseason ACL tear, a fairly limited return back to play, and falling to the 11th WR off the board and suddenly this man is screaaaaming value!

First of all, the Pittsburgh Steelers drafted him. They have had quite the knack for drafting the position for as long as my fandom can remember:

Now, we have George Pickens entering a somewhat crowded team in terms of “mouths to feed” with some uncertainty at quarterback as well. This situation, combined with the lack of 2021 success, is what is suppressing the June startup ADP for Pickens.

I am here to tell you GRAB HIM EARLIER. In both mine and @DynastySanta’s personal rankings, Pickens settles in at player 98. Our consensus rankings here at IDP Guys have his average rank at 133.5, 20 picks before he is going in June drafts. STEAL!!!

Regardless of being a Georgia Bulldog, it is clear as day if you watch Pickens play that, “he has that dawg in him.” Okay, that was a terrible pun, but seriously if you watch him play he stands out.

If the rounds are entering double digits in your draft, and Pickens is available, smash that draft button and do not look back. This man has true superstar potential at a fraction of the cost of his rookie WR classmates.

2. Jameson Williams, WR Detroit Lions

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  • IDPguys June ADP – 80.75 (late-10th in 12 team leagues)
  • DynastyBison rank – #51
  • IDPguys consensus rank – 65.75

ACL discount part two!!!!!

Much like our friend George Pickens, Williams is available later than he should be, due to an ACL tear. Williams’ injury is far fresher, happening in the National Championship game, but he was quite possibly THE most dominant WR in college football in 2021.

As a prospect, Williams covers nearly all the boxes my model checks as discussed in my earlier article. This scored Williams as my WR3 of the class in the same tier as former teammate Garrett Wilson.

The injury DOES affect Williams’ 2022 value for me in redraft leagues. In dynasty, however, it’s time to gobble up the value.

As you can see with his fellow “great tier” companions, Williams has the makings of a future star. Anything sixth round or later for him I think is a very fair acquisition cost that should age very well, value-wise. Once acquired, DO NOT have too high of an expectation for early 2022 and jump ship!

Williams is 110% a guy you will need to show patience with and hold through what very well may be a year started on the PUP list and a slow start in year one due to an ACL tear. This start may also unlock an even cheaper opportunity to acquire more Williams shares, DO NOT become this seller!

I, for one, will certainly be taking advantage of any upcoming buy windows and I recommend you do the same!

1. Rachaad White, RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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  • IDPguys June ADP – 129.75 (late-10th in 12 team leagues)
  • DynastyBison rank – #75
  • IDPguys consensus rank – 119.75

Rachaad White is ABSOLUTELY my favorite start-up sleeper of the 2022 class!

Many view White as the RB3, RB4, or even RB5 of this class. I don’t share that opinion because I have him as my RB2 of the 2022 class grading into my great tier as seen below:

Looking at the historical grouping of RB prospects who is listed in the “great tier,” it is apparent these guys WILL be successful at the NFL level, short of the unforeseeable reasons. (Sony Michel/Rashaad Penny injuries – Derrius Guice injury+legal).

White may not be projected highly as a rookie, given the presence of Leonard Fournette who had some of the league’s best usage in 2021. (He was seventh in weighted opportunities per PlayerProfiler.com)

I think his usage takes a hit this year. The difference for 2022 is that Rachaad White offers INFINITELY more talent in the receiving game than Ronald Jones did. Personally, I think White offers significantly more than Fournette does as well. White has been among the least efficient pass-catchers the last two seasons, finishing 24th and 29th in yards per reception.

It is pretty well accepted that White will spell Fournette for rushes as a normal backup would. I personally expect him to siphon a sizeable chunk of the receiving work away by mid-season. Should this happen, White approaches stand-alone flex value.

To top it off, if Fournette were to miss time, White has the talent to be a LEAGUE-WINNER. This is a highly desirable fantasy offense. Fournette showed us this offense can produce an RB1, even with poor efficiency.

As we approach the double-digit rounds, I am absolutely smashing the draft button on White. Get him on your dynasty rosters ASAP. When — not if — he gets the touches, White’s value is going to sky-rocket!


Thank you for the read! You can find all of my articles on my IDP Guys author pageDon’t forget to follow me on Twitter at @DynastyBison and follow @IDPGuys to keep up to date!

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