Taking a look at the NFL Week 15 from a IDP perspective; notes on what our writer @Orangeman3142 saw this weekend.
This is my weekly start or sit article for your IDP players in fantasy football. Despite there being very little actual information presented, just a start, sit, and what tier of production I expect from the starting player, there is a lot of information that goes into these decisions each week.
I use snap percentages (playing time), past production, tendencies of the opposing offense and probable game flow to decide on these. I just want the reader to know that a lot of time and research goes into this each week so don’t be put off by the bare bones layout here.
I used to do this explaining exactly why each decision is made and the thought process behind it but it was getting so detailed I wasn’t able to finish a start or sit for every team playing each week and only ended up covering some of the games, this way you guys get a read on all of them.
If I don’t mention a specific player it means I don’t have enough of a read on them to make a recommendation one way or the other but odds are I wouldn’t play them. The known IDP producers or potential IDP producers for each team should all be covered here.
Tier one starts = These guys have the best matchups and a history of production along with playing time, they are most likely to have a big game this week.
Tier two starts = Play these guys in deeper leagues, they should get you some points but I wouldn’t expect a massive day out of them.
Sits = Don’t play them they don’t have an ideal matchup or won’t play enough snaps to be effective.
Full transparency I am at around 72% correct on the year with these calls, definitely not perfect but not too bad at all for calling pretty much every IDP relevant player on each team for every game all season.
And I’m pretty easily accessible if you want to call me an idiot, (@Orangeman3142 on Twitter). We believe in transparency and owning our mistakes here at IDP Guys as well as never making you go through a paywall for information.
It’s a labor of love here and I would put our team, who together have over 100 years of combined IDP experience, up against anyone or any site out there and bet on us to be more accurate and accessible 10 times out of 10. I’ll be skipping over all of the spot start and bye weekshort term guys this week since it’s playoffs.
Let’s get into it.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Sits: All other linebackers, Cincy corners, there are better matchups to stream from this week
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Tier one starts: Lavonte David (LB) Jason Pierre Paul (DE)
Sits: Sean Lee (LB) *playing time uncertain*
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
New York Giants @ Indianapolis Colts
Tier two starts: Micheal Thomas (S) Olivier Vernon (DE, LB)
Sits: Margus Hunt (DE, DT)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins
Sits: Jalen Ramsey (CB) AJ Bouye (CB) *not a great matchup for corner*
Tier one starts: Kiko Alonso (LB)
Sits: Dolphins Corners *bad matchup* Davon Godchaux (DT) *inconsistency*
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Tier one starts: Trey Flowers (DE)
Sits: Patriots Corners *bad matchup*
Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets
Tier one starts: Blake Martinez (LB)
Tier two starts: Kenny Clark (DT)
Sits: Packers Corners, Packers Safeties *bad matchup, inconsistency and general underwhelming production*
Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sits: DJ Reader (DT)
Tier two starts: Nigel Bradham (LB) Micheal Bennett (DE)
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
Tier two starts: Foye Oluokun (LB) DaMontae Kazee (S)
Sits: Falcons Corners *bad matchup against backup QB*
Sits: Shaq Thompson (LB) *inconsistency*
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Sits: Deone Buchanon (LB)
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers
Tier two starts: Danny Trevethan (LB) Eddie “Skidmarks” Jackson (S) Adrian Amos (S)
Tier two starts: Elijah Lee (LB)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints
Tier one starts: Cameron Heyward (DT)
Sits: Jon Bostic (LB) LJ Fort (LB) *uncertainty as to which will play ILB next to Williams*
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks
Tier one starts: Chris Jones (DE)
Sits: Reggie Ragland (LB) *playing time, inconsistency* Dee Ford (LB) Justin Houston (LB) *edge rush linebackers in a regular linebacker spot in the fantasy championship game is a recipe for disaster, this goes for ALL edge rush linebackers on ALL teams*
Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders
Tier one starts: Justin Simmons (S)
Tier one starts: Tahir Whitehead (LB)
Tier two starts: None
Sits: Everyone else *not even kidding, anyone without the last name Whitehead on the Raiders is a trap*
Good luck in playoffs gentlemen, and if your gut tells you something trust it. I would much rather trust my instincts and get it wrong than go along with something I don’t agree with and kick myself afterwards. In the end it’s still a bit of luck that will help win you these titles, there’s only so much we can do, the rest is in the hands of the fantasy gods.
I’d like to thank all of you that have read my start or sit articles all season, and a double thank you to those that have read my instant reaction series as well. If you’ve been with me since the start we’ve shared inside jokes about Leighton Vander Esch and German shizor videos, yelled into the night about the stupidity of trusting sack and big play dependent players in important games and always kept it real when it came to who was worth your time and who was a waste of space. I’ll be back next year with the same article lineups and in the mean time I’ll be returning to some of my more ridiculous article series in the offseason including the “NFL’s greatest defenses of all time” series, my hot take series and IDP strategy articles. Stay tuned we’re going to keep pushing out content all offseason, we’ll keep expanding and adding tools for you to help be the best when it comes to all your IDP leagues. And we’re not going to charge you ten bucks a month and claim John Johnson won’t be a top 24 safety while we’re doing it. Thanks again guys and good luck in your title games this week.
***Obviously if any of these players are inactive or injured before their game don’t play them, this article is usually written days ahead of each teams game and things change constantly in regards to injury and suspensions and the like. Make sure you check ESPN’s inactive list that drops at 11:30AM Eastern Time every Sunday morning for the latest and best information on injury status before the games kick off***
If you have any questions feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Orangeman3142) or use the “contact us” box on the website idpguys.org.
And make sure you catch the podcast dropping Tuesday where we discuss this week in all things IDP from week sixteen as well as some offensive and defensive waivers and the latest IDP news and notes to keep you up to speed with all things IDP.
Our team of writers has been doing this for a long time, many of us since 2004 or earlier and altogether we have over 100 years of IDP experience combined. Between all of us we’ll find you the help or advice you need to get your team ready for the playoff push and win your IDP league.
All that and more, and never behind a paywall, at idpguys.org.