Start or Sit IDP Fantasy Football Week Sixteen (16)

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Taking a look at the NFL Week 15 from a IDP perspective; notes on what our writer @Orangeman3142 saw this weekend.


This is my weekly start or sit article for your IDP players in fantasy football. Despite there being very little actual information presented, just a start, sit, and what tier of production I expect from the starting player, there is a lot of information that goes into these decisions each week.

I use snap percentages (playing time), past production, tendencies of the opposing offense and probable game flow to decide on these. I just want the reader to know that a lot of time and research goes into this each week so don’t be put off by the bare bones layout here.

I used to do this explaining exactly why each decision is made and the thought process behind it but it was getting so detailed I wasn’t able to finish a start or sit for every team playing each week and only ended up covering some of the games, this way you guys get a read on all of them.

If I don’t mention a specific player it means I don’t have enough of a read on them to make a recommendation one way or the other but odds are I wouldn’t play them. The known IDP producers or potential IDP producers for each team should all be covered here.

Tier one starts = These guys have the best matchups and a history of production along with playing time, they are most likely to have a big game this week.

Tier two starts = Play these guys in deeper leagues, they should get you some points but I wouldn’t expect a massive day out of them.

Sits = Don’t play them they don’t have an ideal matchup or won’t play enough snaps to be effective.

Full transparency I am at around 72% correct on the year with these calls, definitely not perfect but not too bad at all for calling pretty much every IDP relevant player on each team for every game all season.

And I’m pretty easily accessible if you want to call me an idiot, (@Orangeman3142 on Twitter). We believe in transparency and owning our mistakes here at IDP Guys as well as never making you go through a paywall for information.

It’s a labor of love here and I would put our team, who together have over 100 years of combined IDP experience, up against anyone or any site out there and bet on us to be more accurate and accessible 10 times out of 10. I’ll be skipping over all of the spot start and bye weekshort term guys this week since it’s playoffs.

Let’s get into it.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

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Bengals:

Tier one starts: Jessie Bates (S) Shawn Williams (S)

Tier two starts: Nick Vigil (LB) Vontaze Burfict (LB) *if healthy* Geno Atkins (DT) Carlos Dunlap (DE)

Sits: All other linebackers, Cincy corners, there are better matchups to stream from this week

Browns:

Tier one starts: Joe Schobert (LB) Myles Garrett (DE)

Tier two starts: Jamie Collins (LB) Larry Ogunjobi (DT) Emanuel Ogbah (DE) Damarious Randal (S)

Sits: Denzel Ward (CB) *bad matchup* Jabril Peppers (S) *inconsistency*

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys

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Bucs:

Tier one starts: Lavonte David (LB) Jason Pierre Paul (DE)

Tier two starts: Adarius Taylor (LB) *if healthy* Gerald McCoy (DT) Jordan Whitehead (S) Carl Nassib (DE)

Sits: NA

Cowboys:

Tier one starts: Jaylon Smith (LB) Leighton Vander Esch (LB) Demarcus Lawrence (DE)

Tier two starts: Byron Jones (CB) Chidobe Awuzie (CB) Jeff Heath (S) Randy Gregory

Sits: Sean Lee (LB) *playing time uncertain*

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

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Vikings:

Tier one starts: Danielle Hunter (DE) Linval Joseph (DT) Eric Kendricks (LB)

Tier two starts: Sheldon Richardson (DT) Everson Griffen (DE) Harrison “Chipotle” Smith (S) Trae Waynes (CB)

Sits: NA

Lions:

Tier one starts: Jarrad Davis (LB) Damon Harrison (DT)

Tier two starts: Quandre Diggs (S) Glover Quinn (S) Darius Slay (CB)

Sits: NA

New York Giants @ Indianapolis Colts

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Giants: 

Tier one starts: Alec Ogletree (LB) Janoris Jenkins (CB)

Tier two starts: Micheal Thomas (S) Olivier Vernon (DE, LB)

Sits: NA

Colts:

Tier one starts: Darius Leonard (LB) Clayton Geathers (S)

Tier two starts: Anthony Walker (LB) Jabaal Sheard (DE) Denico Autry (DT) Kenny Moore (CB)

Sits: Margus Hunt (DE, DT)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins

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Jags:

Tier one starts: Telvin Smith (LB) Calais Campbell (DE)

Tier two starts: Myles Jack (LB) Yannick Ngakoue (DE)

Sits: Jalen Ramsey (CB) AJ Bouye (CB) *not a great matchup for corner*

Dolphins:

Tier one starts: Kiko Alonso (LB)

Tier two starts: Raekwon McMillan (LB) Reshad Jones (S) TJ McDonald (S) Mincah Fitzpatrick (S)

Sits: Dolphins Corners *bad matchup* Davon Godchaux (DT) *inconsistency*

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

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Bills:

Tier one starts: Tremaine Edmunds (LB) Jordan Poyer (S)

Tier two starts: Lorezno Alexander (LB) Trent Murphy (DE) Jerry Hughes (DE) Tra’Davious White (CB)

Sits: NA

Patriots:

Tier one starts: Trey Flowers (DE)

Tier two starts: Kyle Van Noy (LB) Patrick Chung (S) Devin McCourty (S)

Sits: Patriots Corners *bad matchup*

Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets

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Packers:

Tier one starts: Blake Martinez (LB)

Tier two starts: Kenny Clark (DT)

Sits: Packers Corners, Packers Safeties *bad matchup, inconsistency and general underwhelming production*

Jets:

Tier one starts: Jamal Adams (S) Avery Williamson (LB)

Tier two starts: Darron Lee (LB) Leonard Williams (DE)

Sits: NA

Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles

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Texans:

Tier one starts: JJ Watt (DE) JaDaveon Clowney (DE, LB) *tier one as DE, two as LB* Tyrann Mathieu (S) Zach Cunningham (LB)

Tier two starts: Bernardrick McKinney (LB) Justin Reid (S) Kareem Jackson (S, CB)

Sits: DJ Reader (DT)

Eagles:

Tier one starts: Malcolm Jenkins (S) Fletcher Cox (DT) Jordan Hicks (LB) *if healthy*

Tier two starts: Nigel Bradham (LB) Micheal Bennett (DE)

Sits: NA

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers

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Falcons: 

Tier one starts: Deion Jones (LB) Grady Jarrett (DT)

Tier two starts: Foye Oluokun (LB) DaMontae Kazee (S)

Sits: Falcons Corners *bad matchup against backup QB*

Panthers:

Tier one starts: Luke Kuechly (LB) Kawan Short (DT) James Bradberry (CB)

Tier two starts: Thomas Davis (LB) Eric Reid (S) Mike Adams (S) Captain Munnerlyn (CB) Mario Addison (DE)

Sits: Shaq Thompson (LB) *inconsistency*

Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals

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Rams: 

Tier one starts: Aaron Donald (DE) Cory Littleton (LB) John Johnson (S)

Tier two starts: N’Damakong Suh (DT) Micheal Brockers (DE) Dante Fowler (DE) Marc Barron (LB) Lamarcus Joyner (S)

Sits: Marcus Peters (CB) Aqib Talib (CB) *bad matchup for corners*

Cardinals:

Tier one starts: Chandler Jones (DE) Patrick Peterson (CB) Hasaan Redick (LB) Antoine Bethea (S)

Tier two starts: Gerald Hodges (LB) Budda Baker (S) Tre Boston (S) Robert Nkemdiche (DT)

Sits: Deone Buchanon (LB)

Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers

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Bears:

Tier one starts: Roquan Smith (LB) Khalil Mack (DE) *tier one as DE, two as LB* Akiem Hicks (DE)

Tier two starts: Danny Trevethan (LB) Eddie “Skidmarks” Jackson (S) Adrian Amos (S)

Sits: Kyle Fuller (CB) Prince Amukamara (CB) *bad corner matchup*

49ers:

Tier one starts: Fred Warner (LB) DeForest Buckner (DT) Jaquiski Tartt (S) *if healthy*

Tier two starts: Elijah Lee (LB)

Sits: Solomon Thomas (DE) Richard Sherman (CB) *not actually good, it’s just assumed he is*

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints

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Steelers:

Tier one starts: Cameron Heyward (DT)

Tier two starts: Terrel Edmunds (S) Vince Williams (LB) Stephon Tuitt (DE) Sean Davis (S)

Sits: Jon Bostic (LB) LJ Fort (LB) *uncertainty as to which will play ILB next to Williams*

Saints:

Tier one starts: Cameron Jordan (DE) Eli Apple (CB) Marshon Lattimore (CB)

Tier two starts: Sheldon Rankins (DT) Marcus Davenport (DE) Vonn Bell (S) Marcus Williams (S) DeMario Davis (LB)

Sits: NA

Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks

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Chiefs:

Tier one starts: Chris Jones (DE)

Tier two starts: Anthony Hitchens (LB) Eric Berry (S) Kendall Fuller (CB) *if healthy*

Sits: Reggie Ragland (LB) *playing time, inconsistency* Dee Ford (LB) Justin Houston (LB) *edge rush linebackers in a regular linebacker spot in the fantasy championship game is a recipe for disaster, this goes for ALL edge rush linebackers on ALL teams*

Seahawks:

Tier one starts: Frank Clark (DE) Bobby Wagner (LB) Bradley McDougald (S) *if healthy*

Tier two starts: Austin Calitro (LB) Tedric Thompson (S) Jarran Reed (DT) Tre Flowers (CB) Shaq Griffin (CB)

Sits: NA

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders

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Broncos:

Tier one starts: Justin Simmons (S)

Tier two starts: Todd Davis (LB) Derek Wolfe (DE) Von Miller (LB) *only in a specific EDGE or OLB slot though*

Sits: NA

Raiders: 

Tier one starts: Tahir Whitehead (LB)

Tier two starts: None

Sits: Everyone else *not even kidding, anyone without the last name Whitehead on the Raiders is a trap*

Good luck in playoffs gentlemen, and if your gut tells you something trust it. I would much rather trust my instincts and get it wrong than go along with something I don’t agree with and kick myself afterwards. In the end it’s still a bit of luck that will help win you these titles, there’s only so much we can do, the rest is in the hands of the fantasy gods.

I’d like to thank all of you that have read my start or sit articles all season, and a double thank you to those that have read my instant reaction series as well. If you’ve been with me since the start we’ve shared inside jokes about Leighton Vander Esch and German shizor videos, yelled into the night about the stupidity of trusting sack and big play dependent players in important games and always kept it real when it came to who was worth your time and who was a waste of space. I’ll be back next year with the same article lineups and in the mean time I’ll be returning to some of my more ridiculous article series in the offseason including the “NFL’s greatest defenses of all time” series, my hot take series and IDP strategy articles. Stay tuned we’re going to keep pushing out content all offseason, we’ll keep expanding and adding tools for you to help be the best when it comes to all your IDP leagues. And we’re not going to charge you ten bucks a month and claim John Johnson won’t be a top 24 safety while we’re doing it. Thanks again guys and good luck in your title games this week.

***Obviously if any of these players are inactive or injured before their game don’t play them, this article is usually written days ahead of each teams game and things change constantly in regards to injury and suspensions and the like. Make sure you check ESPN’s inactive list that drops at 11:30AM Eastern Time every Sunday morning for the latest and best information on injury status before the games kick off***

If you have any questions feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Orangeman3142) or use the “contact us” box on the website idpguys.org.

And make sure you catch the podcast dropping Tuesday where we discuss this week in all things IDP from week sixteen as well as some offensive and defensive waivers and the latest IDP news and notes to keep you up to speed with all things IDP.

Our team of writers has been doing this for a long time, many of us since 2004 or earlier and altogether we have over 100 years of IDP experience combined. Between all of us we’ll find you the help or advice you need to get your team ready for the playoff push and win your IDP league.

All that and more, and never behind a paywall, at idpguys.org.


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Grounded Cowboys fan, if there is such a thing. Writer\Host for the IDP Guys, been playing IDP Fantasy since 2004. Cat enthusiast. Ridiculous opinions are my own. My articles are occasionally on the controversial side of things. FanDuel degenerate and reliable source of income for Bovada. I work at a hospital and volunteer with Autistic kids on the weekend. Hit me up on Twitter if you need any IDP advice or want a second opinion, always glad to help. @Orangeman3142