The IDP Guys’ NFL Week 16 Start/Sit List: Offense

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Find success this weekend with the NFL Week 16 Start/Sit offense list!

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I’m not exactly sure where to begin when I think back on all that transpired in Week 15. It was the week of Covid outbreaks, injuries, and abysmal statistical performances. Of course, there were several bright spots from the Week 15 slate but overall it was memorable for mostly the wrong reasons. It was the epitome of the roller-coaster of a season that we have experienced.

Week 15 left many fantasy General Managers shook, but the playoffs continue to roll on! Congrats to you if you survived and preparing for the next round! Week 15 gave us some unlikely heroes, including Ravens backup QB Tyler Huntley and the Dolphins (signed from the practice squad) RB Duke Johnson. Looking ahead to another potential surprise hero for Week 16; we now look to the Buccaneers’ new starting RB Ronald Jones to see if he can help us advance to the next round.

I have Ronald Jones slotted as a Trust for Week 16. In relief of the unfortunately injured Leonard Fournette, Jones displayed impressive efficiency as a runner against a strong New Orleans defense. He gained 63 yards on eight rushing attempts, which was good enough for almost 8 yards per/carry. Ronald Jones and the Buccaneers face-off against the crumbling Carolina Panthers.

The Panthers are in mid-free-fall riding a four-game losing streak. During the current four-game losing streak, the Panthers’ rushing defense has been exploitable and overall profitable for opposing running backs. I say fire up Ronald Jones as he seeks a moment of career redemption in a prime spot to shine.

Review the lineup optimization confidence system guidelines below as you navigate the matchups for the entire Week 16 slate.

Good luck in the next round of the playoffs!

The “Trust, If You Must, and Bust” System:

“Trust” = Strong start, a player who should be started in all formats!

“If You Must” = Weak start, a player who is good enough to be a starter, but faces a tough matchup or holds an unclear opportunity in a good offense. Some caution should be used while the risk is recognized, as this is often league format dependent.

If you play in a shallow league, I would lean towards benching this player if you have a decent replacement option. In a deep league, I would lean towards starting, since the options may be more scarce. Either way, expectations should be managed.

“Bust” = Keep on your bench, at least for now. These players should be avoided since stronger options at the relative position should be considered first. These are players who fit into one of the following categories:

1. A player in a tough matchup or currently holds ambiguous weekly opportunities in the offense.
2. A strong bench stash for season-long purposes but currently in a “wait and see” period. Wait and see if their role expands for starter caliber consideration. For example, this type of player may be a strong backup RB behind a stud in an elite offense or could be in line for a big workload if the starter misses time.
3. Currently lacking a clear offensive opportunity in either a projected good or bad offense
4. Is too volatile on a week-to-week basis. There is no need to play boom or bust type players if you can help it.

Weekly Start/Sit Decision Reminders

Be sure to always be mindful of weekly injury reports and gameday inactive announcements as this could pivot a weak starter into a strong starter!

Be sure to always leave the FLEX spot(s) free of Thursday night players!

Thursday Night Football

San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans

49ers

Trust – George Kittle TE, Deebo Samuel WR, Jeff Wilson RB

If You Must – Jimmy Garoppolo QB, Brandon Aiyuk WR

Titans

Trust –   Ryan Tannehill QB, A.J. Brown WR (if active)

If You Must – Dontrell Hilliard RB, D’Onta Foreman RB Julio Jones WR (if active), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine WR

Bust – Jeremy McNichols RB

 

Saturday Slate

Cleveland Browns Green Bay Packers

Browns

Trust – Nick Chubb RB,  Jarvis Landry WR (if active)

If You Must – Baker Mayfield QB (if active), Donovan Peoples-Jones WR, David Njoku TE

Bust – D’Ernest Johnson RB, Austin Hooper TE, Rashard Higgins WR

Packers

Trust – Aaron Rodgers QB, Davante Adams WR, Aaron Jones RB, AJ Dillon RB

If You Must –  Allen Lazard WR

 

Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals

Colts

Trust – Jonathan Taylor RB

If You Must – Michael Pittman WR, Carson Wentz QB, Nyheim Hines RB, T.Y. Hilton WR

Cardinals

Trust – Kyler Murray QB,  James Conner RB (if active), Zach Ertz TE, Christian Kirk WR

If You Must – Rondale Moore WR, A.J. Green WR, Chase Edmonds RB (Trust if Conner inactive)

Sunday Early Afternoon Slate

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Giants

Trust – Saquon Barkley RB

If You Must – Evan Engram TE, Kenny Golladay WR, Kadarius Toney WR (if active)

Bust–  Darius Slayton WR

Eagles

Trust – Jalen Hurts QB, DeVonta Smith WR, Dallas Goedert TE, Miles Sanders RB

Bust – Jalen Reagor WR/Quez Watkins WR, Boston Scott RB/Kenneth Gainwell RB/Jordan Howard RB

 

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons

Lions

Trust – D’Andre Swift RB (if active), Amon-Ra St. Brown WR (if Jared Goff active, If You Must if Goff inactive)

If You Must –  Jared Goff QB (if active), Craig Reynolds RB (if Swift inactive), Josh Reynolds WR, Jamaal Williams RB (if Swift is inactive)

Falcons

Trust – Kyle Pitts TE, Cordarrelle Patterson RB, Russell Gage WR

If You Must – Matt Ryan QB

Bust – Mike Davis RB

 

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

Ravens

Trust – Lamar Jackson QB (if active), Tyler Huntley QB (if Jackson inactive), Mark Andrews TE, Marquise Brown WR

If You Must – Rashod Bateman WR, Devonta Freeman RB

Bust – Latavius Murray RB, Sammy Watkins WR

Bengals

Trust – Joe Burrow QB,  Ja’Marr Chase WR, Tee Higgins WR, Joe Mixon RB

If You Must – Tyler Boyd WR, C.J. Uzomah TE

Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings

Rams

Trust –  Matthew Stafford QB, Cooper Kupp WR, Odell Beckham Jr. WR,  Van Jefferson WR

If You Must – Tyler Higbee TE (if active), Darrell Henderson RB/Sony Michel RB

Vikings

Trust – Kirk Cousins QB, Dalvin Cook RB, Justin Jefferson WR, Adam Thielen WR (if active)

If You Must – Alexander Mattison RB (TRUST – only if Dalvin Cook is ever inactive) Tyler Conklin TE, K. J. Osborn WR (if Thielen inactive)

 

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Bills

Trust – Josh Allen QB, Stefon Diggs WR, Dawson Knox TE

If You Must – Devin Singletary RB, Gabriel Davis WR

Bust – Matt Breida RB, Zack Moss RB

Patriots

Trust – Hunter Henry TE

If You Must – Damien Harris RB (if active), Rhamondre Stevenson RB (TRUST if Harris inactive), Jakobi Meyers WR, Mac Jones QB

Bust – Jonnu Smith TE, Nelson Agholor WR, Kendrick Bourne WR

 

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets

Jaguars

Trust – James Robinson RB

If You Must – Marvin Jones WR, Laquon Treadwell WR, Laviska Shenault WR

Bust – Trevor Lawrence QB

Jets

If You Must – Michael Carter RB, Jamison Crowder WR

Bust – Zach Wilson QB, Tevin Coleman RB

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Buccaneers

Trust – Tom Brady QB, Mike Evans WR (if active), Rob Gronkowski TE, Ronald Jones RB

If You Must – Antonio Brown WR (if active)

Panthers

Trust –  D.J. Moore WR (if active)

If You Must – Robby Anderson WR, Chuba Hubbard RB, Cam Newton QB, Ameer Abdullah RB (Deep league – Multi-Flex PPR option)

Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans

Chargers

Trust – Justin Herbert QB, Austin Ekeler RB (if active), Keenan Allen WR, Mike Williams WR

If You Must – Jared Cook TE, Jalen Guyton WR (if active), Justin Jackson (if Ekeler inactive)

Texans

Trust – Brandin Cooks WR (if active)

Bust – David Johnson RB, Davis Mills QB, Rex Burkhead RB

Sunday Mid Afternoon Slate

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks

Bears

Trust – David Montgomery RB, Darnell Mooney WR

If You Must – Justin Fields QB, Cole Kmet TE, Allen Robinson WR 

Bust – Khalil Herbert RB (high upside bench stash)

Seahawks

Trust – Russell Wilson QB, D.K. Metcalf WR, Tyler Lockett WR (if active)

If You Must – Gerald Everett TE, Rashaad Penny RB

 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

Steelers

Trust – Najee Harris RB, Diontae Johnson WR, Chase Claypool WR, Pat Freiermuth TE (if active)

If You Must – Ben Roethlisberger QB

Chiefs

Trust – Patrick Mahomes QB, Tyreek Hill WR (if active), Travis Kelce TE (if active), Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB

If You Must – Darrel Williams RB, Mecole Hardman WR (if Hill inactive)

 

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders

Broncos

Trust –  Javonte Williams RB, Noah Fant TE

If You Must – Jerry Jeudy WR, Melvin Gordon RB, Courtland Sutton WR, Tim Patrick WR, Teddy Bridgewater QB (if active, Drew Lock QB if Bridgewater inactive)

Raiders

Trust – Darren Waller TE (if active), Josh Jacobs RB, Hunter Renfrow WR

If You Must – Derek Carr QB, Foster Moreau TE (only if Waller is inactive)

Bust – Zay Jones WR, Bryan Edwards WR

Sunday Night Football

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys

Football Team

Trust – Antonio Gibson RB, Terry McLaurin WR

If You Must – Taylor Heinicke QB (if active), Ricky Seals-Jones TE

Cowboys

Trust – Dak Prescott QB, Amari Cooper WR, CeeDee Lamb WR, Dalton Schultz TE

If You Must – Ezekiel Elliott RB, Tony Pollard RB, Michael Gallup WR

Bust – Cedrick Wilson WR (deep league stash)

Monday Night Football

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints

Dolphins

Trust – Mike Gesicki TE,  Tua Tagovailoa QB, Jaylen Waddle WR, DeVante Parker WR

If You Must – Duke Johnson RB, Myles Gaskin RB

Saints

Trust – Alvin Kamara RB

If You Must –  Taysom Hill QB, Marquez Callaway WR, TreQuan Smith WR, Mark Ingram RB

Good luck with your Week 16 start/sit offense selections and enjoy the games!