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  • The IDP Guys’ NFL Week 16 Start/Sit List: Offense

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    Find success this weekend with the NFL Week 16 Start/Sit offense list!


    I'm not exactly sure where to begin when I think back on all that transpired in Week 15. It was the week of Covid outbreaks, injuries, and abysmal statistical performances. Of course, there were several bright spots from the Week 15 slate but overall it was memorable for mostly the wrong reasons. It was the epitome of the roller-coaster of a season that we have experienced.

    Week 15 left many fantasy General Managers shook, but the playoffs continue to roll on! Congrats to you if you survived and preparing for the next round! Week 15 gave us some unlikely heroes, including Ravens backup QB Tyler Huntley and the Dolphins (signed from the practice squad) RB Duke Johnson. Looking ahead to another potential surprise hero for Week 16; we now look to the Buccaneers' new starting RB Ronald Jones to see if he can help us advance to the next round.

    I have Ronald Jones slotted as a Trust for Week 16. In relief of the unfortunately injured Leonard Fournette, Jones displayed impressive efficiency as a runner against a strong New Orleans defense. He gained 63 yards on eight rushing attempts, which was good enough for almost 8 yards per/carry. Ronald Jones and the Buccaneers face-off against the crumbling Carolina Panthers.

    The Panthers are in mid-free-fall riding a four-game losing streak. During the current four-game losing streak, the Panthers' rushing defense has been exploitable and overall profitable for opposing running backs. I say fire up Ronald Jones as he seeks a moment of career redemption in a prime spot to shine.

    Review the lineup optimization confidence system guidelines below as you navigate the matchups for the entire Week 16 slate.

    Good luck in the next round of the playoffs!

    The "Trust, If You Must, and Bust" System:

    Trust” = Strong start, a player who should be started in all formats!

    If You Must” = Weak start, a player who is good enough to be a starter, but faces a tough matchup or holds an unclear opportunity in a good offense. Some caution should be used while the risk is recognized, as this is often league format dependent.

    If you play in a shallow league, I would lean towards benching this player if you have a decent replacement option. In a deep league, I would lean towards starting, since the options may be more scarce. Either way, expectations should be managed.

    Bust” = Keep on your bench, at least for now. These players should be avoided since stronger options at the relative position should be considered first. These are players who fit into one of the following categories:

    1. A player in a tough matchup or currently holds ambiguous weekly opportunities in the offense.
    2. A strong bench stash for season-long purposes but currently in a “wait and see” period. Wait and see if their role expands for starter caliber consideration. For example, this type of player may be a strong backup RB behind a stud in an elite offense or could be in line for a big workload if the starter misses time.
    3. Currently lacking a clear offensive opportunity in either a projected good or bad offense
    4. Is too volatile on a week-to-week basis. There is no need to play boom or bust type players if you can help it.

    Weekly Start/Sit Decision Reminders

    Be sure to always be mindful of weekly injury reports and gameday inactive announcements as this could pivot a weak starter into a strong starter!

    Be sure to always leave the FLEX spot(s) free of Thursday night players!


    Thursday Night Football

    San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans
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    49ers

    TrustGeorge Kittle TE, Deebo Samuel WR, Jeff Wilson RB

    If You MustJimmy Garoppolo QB, Brandon Aiyuk WR

    Titans

    Trust –   Ryan Tannehill QB, A.J. Brown WR (if active)

    If You MustDontrell Hilliard RB, D'Onta Foreman RB Julio Jones WR (if active), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine WR

    Bust - Jeremy McNichols RB

     

    Saturday Slate

    Cleveland Browns Green Bay Packers
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    Browns

    TrustNick Chubb RB,  Jarvis Landry WR (if active)

    If You MustBaker Mayfield QB (if active), Donovan Peoples-Jones WR, David Njoku TE

    Bust - D'Ernest Johnson RB, Austin Hooper TE, Rashard Higgins WR

    Packers

    TrustAaron Rodgers QB, Davante Adams WR, Aaron Jones RB, AJ Dillon RB

    If You Must Allen Lazard WR

     

    Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals
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    Colts

    TrustJonathan Taylor RB

    If You Must - Michael Pittman WR, Carson Wentz QB, Nyheim Hines RB, T.Y. Hilton WR

    Cardinals

    TrustKyler Murray QBJames Conner RB (if active), Zach Ertz TE, Christian Kirk WR

    If You MustRondale Moore WR, A.J. Green WR, Chase Edmonds RB (Trust if Conner inactive)


    Sunday Early Afternoon Slate

    New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
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    Giants

    Trust - Saquon Barkley RB

    If You MustEvan Engram TE, Kenny Golladay WR, Kadarius Toney WR (if active)

    BustDarius Slayton WR

    Eagles

    TrustJalen Hurts QB, DeVonta Smith WR, Dallas Goedert TE, Miles Sanders RB

    Bust - Jalen Reagor WR/Quez Watkins WR, Boston Scott RB/Kenneth Gainwell RB/Jordan Howard RB

     

    Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons
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    Lions

    TrustD'Andre Swift RB (if active), Amon-Ra St. Brown WR (if Jared Goff active, If You Must if Goff inactive)

    If You Must –  Jared Goff QB (if active), Craig Reynolds RB (if Swift inactive), Josh Reynolds WR, Jamaal Williams RB (if Swift is inactive)

    Falcons

    TrustKyle Pitts TE, Cordarrelle Patterson RB, Russell Gage WR

    If You Must - Matt Ryan QB

    Bust - Mike Davis RB

     

    Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
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    Ravens

    TrustLamar Jackson QB (if active), Tyler Huntley QB (if Jackson inactive), Mark Andrews TE, Marquise Brown WR

    If You MustRashod Bateman WR, Devonta Freeman RB

    BustLatavius Murray RB, Sammy Watkins WR

    Bengals

    TrustJoe Burrow QB,  Ja'Marr Chase WR, Tee Higgins WR, Joe Mixon RB

    If You Must - Tyler Boyd WR, C.J. Uzomah TE

    Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings
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    Rams

    Trust –  Matthew Stafford QB, Cooper Kupp WR, Odell Beckham Jr. WR,  Van Jefferson WR

    If You MustTyler Higbee TE (if active), Darrell Henderson RB/Sony Michel RB

    Vikings

    Trust - Kirk Cousins QB, Dalvin Cook RB, Justin Jefferson WR, Adam Thielen WR (if active)

    If You MustAlexander Mattison RB (TRUST - only if Dalvin Cook is ever inactive) Tyler Conklin TE, K. J. Osborn WR (if Thielen inactive)

     

    Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
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    Bills

    TrustJosh Allen QB, Stefon Diggs WR, Dawson Knox TE

    If You MustDevin Singletary RB, Gabriel Davis WR

    Bust - Matt Breida RB, Zack Moss RB

    Patriots

    Trust - Hunter Henry TE

    If You MustDamien Harris RB (if active), Rhamondre Stevenson RB (TRUST if Harris inactive), Jakobi Meyers WR, Mac Jones QB

    Bust - Jonnu Smith TE, Nelson Agholor WR, Kendrick Bourne WR

     

    Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets
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    Jaguars

    Trust - James Robinson RB

    If You MustMarvin Jones WR, Laquon Treadwell WR, Laviska Shenault WR

    Bust - Trevor Lawrence QB

    Jets

    If You Must - Michael Carter RB, Jamison Crowder WR

    Bust - Zach Wilson QB, Tevin Coleman RB

     

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
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    Buccaneers

    Trust – Tom Brady QB, Mike Evans WR (if active), Rob Gronkowski TE, Ronald Jones RB

    If You Must - Antonio Brown WR (if active)

    Panthers

    Trust –  D.J. Moore WR (if active)

    If You Must - Robby Anderson WR, Chuba Hubbard RB, Cam Newton QB, Ameer Abdullah RB (Deep league - Multi-Flex PPR option)

    Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
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    Chargers

    TrustJustin Herbert QB, Austin Ekeler RB (if active), Keenan Allen WR, Mike Williams WR

    If You Must - Jared Cook TE, Jalen Guyton WR (if active), Justin Jackson (if Ekeler inactive)

    Texans

    TrustBrandin Cooks WR (if active)

    Bust - David Johnson RB, Davis Mills QB, Rex Burkhead RB


    Sunday Mid Afternoon Slate
    Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks
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    Bears

    Trust - David Montgomery RB, Darnell Mooney WR

    If You Must – Justin Fields QB, Cole Kmet TE, Allen Robinson WR 

    BustKhalil Herbert RB (high upside bench stash)

    Seahawks

    TrustRussell Wilson QB, D.K. Metcalf WR, Tyler Lockett WR (if active)

    If You Must - Gerald Everett TE, Rashaad Penny RB

     

    Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
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    Steelers

    TrustNajee Harris RB, Diontae Johnson WR, Chase Claypool WR, Pat Freiermuth TE (if active)

    If You Must - Ben Roethlisberger QB

    Chiefs

    TrustPatrick Mahomes QB, Tyreek Hill WR (if active), Travis Kelce TE (if active), Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB

    If You MustDarrel Williams RB, Mecole Hardman WR (if Hill inactive)

     

    Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
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    Broncos

    Trust –  Javonte Williams RB, Noah Fant TE

    If You MustJerry Jeudy WR, Melvin Gordon RB, Courtland Sutton WR, Tim Patrick WR, Teddy Bridgewater QB (if active, Drew Lock QB if Bridgewater inactive)

    Raiders

    TrustDarren Waller TE (if active), Josh Jacobs RB, Hunter Renfrow WR

    If You Must – Derek Carr QB, Foster Moreau TE (only if Waller is inactive)

    Bust - Zay Jones WR, Bryan Edwards WR


    Sunday Night Football

    Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys
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    Football Team

    TrustAntonio Gibson RB, Terry McLaurin WR

    If You MustTaylor Heinicke QB (if active), Ricky Seals-Jones TE

    Cowboys

    TrustDak Prescott QB, Amari Cooper WR, CeeDee Lamb WR, Dalton Schultz TE

    If You MustEzekiel Elliott RB, Tony Pollard RB, Michael Gallup WR

    Bust - Cedrick Wilson WR (deep league stash)


    Monday Night Football

    Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints
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    Dolphins

    Trust - Mike Gesicki TE,  Tua Tagovailoa QB, Jaylen Waddle WR, DeVante Parker WR

    If You Must - Duke Johnson RB, Myles Gaskin RB

    Saints

    TrustAlvin Kamara RB

    If You Must –  Taysom Hill QB, Marquez Callaway WR, TreQuan Smith WR, Mark Ingram RB

    Good luck with your Week 16 start/sit offense selections and enjoy the games!


    Thank you for reading my NFL Week 16 Start/Sit list for offensive players! You can find more of my work on my IDP Guys Author Page. Feel free to reach out anytime on Twitter at @FantasyLadder for any fantasy football-related advice, questions, or discussion so you can climb the ladder of fantasy football success with me
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