The IDP Tipster: 2018 IDP Narrative Dossier Entry Log Three

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Gary VanDyke (@Hbogart27) continues his series on his fantasy football “takes” for the 2018 season.


2018 IDP Narrative Dossier

The simple summary of the introduction to the 2018 IDP Narrative Dossier is accountability, which can be found in Entry Log One.

Entry Log Three

If we note the dates of the publications and ask most writers when it is at it’s hardest time of the year to attempt secure “takes”, the likely answer would be right at end of one regular season, thru the free agency period, and after the rookie draft. There are just so many variables in that time span that can change everything in one single event occurrence. But overflowing with confidence after a strong 2017 season I found myself stepping towards that cliff instead of taking a step back from the edge and began the off-season recklessly. I don’t have any regrets in doing so and simply had the intentions to reward all that had supported me in 2017. While I directly wanted to provide as early as possible actions to be executed before any mainstream media or “gurus” caught on. It is a simple philosophy, gain the edge early and let that momentum carry us through and into the following season.

3/9: Three Safety Sets Affecting IDP Landscape?

“This is information I “know” and I don’t completely have supporting intel to share that would do anything other than be a cluster of reports. For that reason, I’ll call this a “gut call” on something we want to keep in mind and watch over the next few seasons.” – The “gut call” stands, we wait and see if there are indications in 2018 that the trend continues. This one may take a couple more season’s to show it’s merited.

3/17: Arizona

Safety

“Budda Baker is our likely top target as the starting strong safety in the defensive backfield.” – At this time the ADP trend has proven that Baker is indeed the top safety target in Arizona. At this point a “no-brainer”, it will take the end of the season results to make it a viable call back then.

“……..whoever ends up as the free safety for the Cardinals in 2018 should hold enough value to have on the roster and possibly be in the DB2 range in our lineups” – The “Honey Badger” landed in Houston and the Cardinals just signed Tre Boston. With the following recent camp report, we wait. 

7/18/18 – “Budda Baker and Antoine Bethea are the first-team safeties in base defense. Tre Boston joining them in nickel.”

Linebacker

“From what we can assume was his best asset that season should land him (Bucannon) at the weakside linebacker position in 2018 as long as the rumors are true and the Cardinals go more of a 4-3 base. – Check and Check, scheme change at this time has him as the weakside.

“Until we see how he responds to the scheme change he should likely be looked at as a high LB2 or lower LB1. We possibly have seen his ceiling in tackle production in that year two season of his career.” – I’ll consider this two “takes”, with recent news I don’t expect he’ll be more than that mid-LB1 as a ceiling and the LB2 as his floor. The second part will be that his best case scenario as the weakside guy will likely mean the best we see is that second-year level of production. We will have to determine just how to split the hairs on those totals when the season is over.

“If the following player I’m about to throw the wrench into this “take” doesn’t live up to what looks like he should be for the team in 2018, then Reddick would likely be the middle linebacker vaulting him into the LB1 tier with upside to be top of that tier. We may not know exactly how this plays out in the camp this summer or even into pre-season. No one freak out here, Reddick may not live up to our expectations we acquired him at last year, but he will still be productive enough that we won’t flat out regret the investment.” – Check on the fact that entering camp Reddick is the SLB at the moment, please see the entire “take” in the article and know that the quote above was after that fact. Now the “take” that matters, will he be productive enough? We wait.

“The Cardinals just re-signed linebacker Josh Bynes recently. This is a 100% under the radar move for us to keep track of.” – Check, he has been named the middle linebacker. I’m wishing I took this “gut call” a bit more to heart at the time I made it and promoted the “take” more at the time. But either way at this moment it was solid and hopefully gave a few people an edge before it was official.

“With his (Bynes) upside reaching as high as tier one or the downside of him being a backup or package player.” – Question now is how to judge the “upside” call, something we again wait on to develop over the season.

Defensive Lineman

“ (Chandler) Jones will be a top-tier DL option as long as he is designated a DE.” – This may seem like a no-brainer now, but at the time don’t forget all of the above takes were made before the reports and rumors were leaked out to a point that there was any confirmation of anything. Jones is officially a DE and I officially await that top-tier season to play out.

I had no other DL “takes” to add.

The conclusion “takes” of the article;

A Safe “Gut Call” In Targeting The Players

Budda Baker as a DB1 at the SS spot

Whoever is the free safety, “safe” would be as a low DB2

Bucannon and Reddick as upper LB2

Jones as a solid DL1 with upside to top of the tier, and in case it happens, as an LB2, if at SLB.

Bynes is a wildcard, with nothing at all to an upper LB2. If he (whoever) can lock the middle linebacker down with an every-down role, he would shock us as a solid LB1 easily. Invest accordingly, good luck with that one.”

As the title indicates, an overall “safe” way to approach it at the time it was published.

3/24: The 2018 Free Agent Linebacker Review 0.1

Kansas City’s Anthony Hitchens: “Hitchens has the skill set and potential with this opportunity to produce nicely for IDP purposes in 2018 and perhaps beyond.”- Indications so far, so good.

Philadelphia’s Nigel Bradham: “Because of this same likely scenario in 2018, we should play it safe and approach him as an LB2.”- Standing firm here.

New Orlean’s Demario Davis: “Taking this into account it is a hard bet he won’t produce as high as level as he did in 2017. He’ll likely be a run-stopping linebacker on a defense that has a great defensive line and a secondary capable of shutting down the pass. This combination of high-octane offense and fewer opportunities will likely drop Davis into the lower tier 2 range.” – Standing firm here as well as the Saints seem intent on running more three safety sets as I have indicated they will in a previous article.

Former Washington OLB Trent Murphy would have slotted in here per his new contract with Buffalo as I was formatting the article. All indications at this time are he will be a defensive end in Buffalo’s scheme. There is no “take” at this time.”- In hindsight, I should have made the “take” on the simple fact he is a DE, after the article I was still seeing indications from mainstream sources he would be one of the starting LBs. But as it says,  there is no official “take”, we move on.

New York Jet’s Avery Williamson: “At this time he should be in consideration at the tail end of the first wave of linebackers selected with a lot of upside in mind as a solid LB1.” & “ He is currently my preferred #1 production by default linebacker target.” – Confident that both will be solid in the end.

3/19: The 2018 Free Agent Linebacker Review 0.2

Washington’s Zach Brown: “Will likely be a top 10 linebacker in 2018 and at age 28, for the length of his 3-year contract.” – Another “no-brainer” for me, we wait.

Oakland’s Tahir Whitehead: “Can’t recommend more than a third-round pick versus rookie picks. 2018 looks “ok” with upside.” – I was unwilling to make a hard “take” other than this statement on Whitehead. In hindsight, I am glad I went “soft on the take” as they signed Derrick Johnson weeks later. I suppose at this point I should say that “ok” means I don’t expect him to be more than an average LB2. So now we will go with no higher than the mid-tier two was the intent by the end of the season.

Detroit’s Devon Kennard: “ But overall an avoid, nor do we have a suggested wave to select him in or any trade value to acquire him at. Example of his role I will personally expect will be a mediocre result for IDP purposes.” – In this case, “mediocre” means you won’t be wishing I had suggested him as an IDP play in 2018. He falls in line with the above take, “soft”.

Giants Kareem Martin: “Outside linebacker in the new reported 3-4 scheme the Giants will be using, likely a deep depth player for our lineups. We should keep an eye on him, but for the most part, left on the waiver wire unless the team change somehow catapults him into the top-tier of the OLBs (doubtful).” – Simple enough, the “take” is he won’t be relevant enough for me to be wrong.

Denver’s Todd Davis: “Good for him, a two-down “thumper” who earned his way by hard work in Denver. Likely with the same role in 2018 with Denver resulting in an LB3 that holds some depth values for our rosters. A waiver wire player we keep our eyes on for our bye-weeks or injuries in most standard size leagues.” – A little conflicting “take” in the end here if this can be considered one. Later we will cover why I think we see him lose his job to the rookie Jewell. For this “take” to be wrong he’ll have to outperform that LB3 call. In the end, I think both “takes”, this one and the Jewell article coming up later in a dossier will both hit.

San Francisco’s Brock Coyle: “There is strong potential to roster him as a solid LB2.” – Smith starting the season on PUP and the Foster SSPD has this firmly in play.

Arizona’s Josh Bynes: “Recently wrote about Bynes in Cardinals Team IDP article. If you would like to see why I feel the need to make a full “take” on him please click HERE to refer to the article.” – We have already covered him above in this article, and that is exactly what I directed readers to do in this article. So no extra ‘take” here.

Seattle’s Barkevious Mingo: “Take: A Brown’s first rounder who never lived up to his draft status in Cleveland. A likely candidate to transition to a defensive end for the Seahawks or possibly a strongside linebacker. Will say at DE we should take note, at SLB he likely won’t be an every-down player making him a waiver wire watch.” – Two “takes” in one. If a defensive end we may see him hit our radars and if a strongside linebacker we ignore. At the time of this article, he is reportedly working at the SLB spot. So looking like the “take” will be that he won’t be relevant enough to matter in the end.

4/3: The 2018 Free Agent Linebacker Review 0.3

Detroit’s Christian Jones: “Definitely, one to keep on the radar as he competes for a role with the Lions.”- Soft and became a little conflicting to my earlier “take” article on Detroit as Jones was signed after the fact. Still, with the radar comment, we will “weed” this one out after the 2018 season.

N.Y. Jets Kevin Pierre-Louis: “He could possibly be suspended a few games during the 2018 season. Regardless, a player to keep in mind as the off-season rolls on and the Jets seem determined to change the culture of the team per reports. Darren Lee has not quite lived up to expectations by some reports and there will likely be a door opened for an opportunity to earn a role down the road. Good Flier!” – After missing when he was not resigned by K.C,  I took the gamble here with another.

Chicago’s Sam Echo: “Likely a depth player for them with a possible rotational role. Can’t advise him as an outside linebacker that hasn’t managed to earn a large role to a point that matters for IDP purposes. Nothing to see here.” – “Take” is we won’t miss a thing this year if we don’t own him.

Jacksonville’s Lerentee McCray: “Four-year undrafted journeyman who has spent time with Denver, Buffalo, and now Jacksonville for a second season if he makes the squad. There are no indications this is more than a depth signing. Nothing to see here.” – Same as Echo, “Take” is we won’t miss a thing this year if we don’t own him.

Pittsburgh’s Jon Bostic: “I personally would have no problem planning on Bostic as a top 20 type linebacker in 2018 and would likely spend and draft him accordingly” – Still in play, we wait.

Cincinnati’s Preston Brown: “SELL!-SELL!-SELL!” – Still, in play, the Burfict SSPD does keep Brown in play to begin the season. But I have to stick to the idea that by the end of the season that his owners would have wished they sold him while his market value was strong after a 2017 production by default season.

New England’s Marquis Flowers: “Take: Flowers is one I have dropped a few hints on in a prior article and on twitter. This was before he was re-signed to the Patriots. Instead of me recapping my hints on my “gut call” that he’ll have a major role in 2018 and why he should be on the tail end of your roster right now as a potential tier 2 LB/DE” – No double “take”, this parallels the earlier article.


This will conclude entry log three of my 2018 IDP Narrative Dossier. And in parting ways again this time I’ll add I’m again confident in the “takes” so far but keep in mind with the risks I mentioned of making “takes” at the time of the year that I did in entry log one. I believe at this point in recapping my 2018 takes that I’m holding steady and my odds overall are strong. If you would like to chat about any of the above because you acted on them, please do, we can access the situations now together as the NFL teams are heading into camps.

Links: Entry Log One  &  Entry Log Two 

So, until next time, and as always, thanks for reading and feel free to contact me on Twitter for anything IDP @HBogart27 or by email at gmtvandyke@gmail.com.


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It is all about the IDP and to bring those interested the tools and content to win now. If you ever need a "follow-up" on anything I've written or would like to ask a general question feel free to contact me on Twitter @HBogart27. I'll also reply by email at gmtvandyke@gmail.com if in the title the words "IDP Tipster" are included. As always thank you for supporting my IDP fetish by reading my articles. Additional: News Desk Correspondent for FantasyPros @nfl_alerts Experience: give or take 20 yrs Proudest Accomplishment As IDP Guy: Developing "one of a kind and original" in-season "Easy Charts" for IDP start/sit advice by using multiple resources and trade secrets to win now. Go Buckeyes!