IDP Tipster is back again. He breaks down more takes in entry log two of his dossier. Will these takes hold true come September?
2018 IDP Narrative Dossier
The simple summary of the introduction to the 2018 IDP Narrative Dossier is accountability, which can be found in Entry Log One.
Entry Log Two
If we note the dates of the publications and ask most writers when it is at it’s hardest time of the year to attempt secure “takes”, the likely answer would be right at end of one regular season, thru the free agency period, and after the rookie draft. There are just so many variables in that time span that can change everything in one single event occurrence. But overflowing with confidence after a strong 2017 season I found myself stepping towards that cliff instead of taking a step back from the edge and began the off-season recklessly. I don’t have any regrets in doing so and simply had the intentions to reward all that had supported me in 2017. While I directly wanted to provide as early as possible actions to be executed before any mainstream media or “gurus” caught on. It is a simple philosophy, gain the edge early and let that momentum carry us through and into the following season.
2/15; Kansas City
Note: I’ve currently have conflicted feelings on this article as I write about it at this point. The article was intended more for the assumption of how the Chiefs defensive unit situation would play out, but in the end and in the “flow” I did make some statements that could be seen as “takes” on my part. So I will own them and address each one again as they have unfolded since the article was published. This is what I get for catering to the Twitter masses and turning questions into articles to cover what I’m asked to cover. I’m not complaining so much as pointing out that I may have stuck my neck out in the process where some writers may not have ventured. There will be a few more coming up similar to this article as well, will this be my downfall in 2018?
“There have been multiple reports lately stating that Kansas City Chiefs are likely to move on from inside linebacker Derrick Johnson and his $8 million cap soon. Again, anyone who followed my IDP notes won’t find this shocking as I stated the same thing to the point I actually got tired of talking about it.” – Talking about it during the 2017 season is what I referred to. In this case, the “take” was correct, D.J. was not resigned and now with Oakland.
“It should be safe to say that Reggie Ragland will be counted on to be the run stopping linebacker and receiving a full workload in 2018. While most mainstream “takes” actually are naming him the replacement for Derrick Johnson if or when D.J. is released. I disagree.” – And I still do, this won’t be debatable until after or perhaps well into the 2018 season. Anthony Hitchens was brought in and currently looking like D.J.’s direct replacement, leaving Ragland as the run stopping backer at the MILB position.
“But I’m confident that the value of obtaining Pierre-Louis over what it would cost to get Ragland and receiving about the same fantasy production in 2018……”– Here was my downfall “taking” too early on this one, maybe. KPL was not resigned and is now with the Jets. I knew better than such an early offseason “take”, but yet I did so anyhow. I could cry “malign” here, a golf term for those who don’t know, but I won’t because I know I was certain he would be resigned. It is an interesting fact that as a Jet he is now with former Chiefs defensive coordinator Todd Bowels as his head coach and I wonder about a back room connection. While thinking along with the idea I know that Darren Lee hasn’t actually lived up to Bowels expectations, I’ll stop here and take my early miss on the resigning “take”.
Changing Of The Guard
“Altogether we could see the Chiefs release or move on from up to or about six aging or ineffective players from the defensive side of the ball if Veach truly wants to bring on the youth movement.”– According to the Chiefs official website: (5in total so far) Darrelle Revis (CB) released, Ron Parker (S) released, Tamba Hali (LB) released, Marcus Peters (CB) traded to Los Angeles Rams for draft picks. Adding in that D.J. was not resigned and all of whom was under consideration as I said it and the final cuts looming, I’ll take the good with the bad and own this one in the spirit of the article’s intention.
49ers Strike Gold In The 7th round
“Unless there is some sort of negotiation on that cap hit I don’t think we see Mr. Ward return. As for Tartt, he graded out well and shouldn’t be sitting on the bench to start the season in 2018. With the odds that Reid is gone, Wards not worth the money or all that good, and the love that Colbert has garnered for what he did for the defense, we have to think that odds are Colbert and Tartt enter next season as the starters at either safety positions.” –
Reid is currently gone, and the “take” there on him is likely a lock at this point. Even if he would manage to return the indications so far are that Colbert and Tartt are the starters. The verdict is still out on Ward, does he even make the final cut? I like my odds I can claim four out of four here by the start of the 2018 season as long as the injury bug doesn’t bite between now and then.
A Pair Of Sixth-Shooters For The Cowboys
We will bypass the quoting for this one, leaving you the reader needing to read the article if wanting to check that I’m not deceiving anyone. There were multiple moving parts in this portion of the article about a few of the Cowboys secondary players at the time along with a couple of rumors. And none seem to have been grouped together in an easy and short quote to post.
But before we go on and boil down the “take” of the situation I’ll cover the “gist” of what was stated and the results thus far. First of all the reports surfacing at the time was that last year starting FS Byron Jones experiment was ending, it has. Also at the time, there were pre-Earl Thomas trade reports that the Cowboys could be interested in signing former Saints free agent Kenny Vaccaro. With either of those, we still can’t 100% count anything out.
The boil down on the “takes” are; – Heath needs to be phased out as one of the main starters, and the feeling so far is that’s possibly the situation. Another was that second-year FS Woods would enter camp as the main FS, and this has only gained momentum.
And this final “take” is actually short and quotable after all.“Frazier will have a role……..” – There are no indications, other than rumors, changing my mind that this is still in play to happen. Seattle wants too much in return for Thomas. While Thomas wants to be paid, so taking a stance in the media. Overall I can’t believe that with Chancellor retiring they don’t have the cap to pay Thomas now or really can afford to let him go. The scenario Dallas signs a veteran is still very much in play, but I’m not sold it’ll be as “big-name” player as some would think. Knocking Frazier out, so to speak, boxing joke there, corny I know.
The Packers Are Packing The Hot Pepper Jack Cheese In 2018
“Odds aren’t great he’ll receive that large of an amount, but some team needing a safety at Burnett’s level will pay him enough to price him out of Green Bay’s range.”– Full steam ahead, Burnett is now with the Steelers.
“He’ll (Josh Jones) be in the top ten for safeties in overall production next season, bank on that as an IDP investment!”– Admitingly, after the draft, this may have taken a slight hit on the top ten portion with the selection of LB Oren Burks. He is a bit of a wild card added in here. But overall this is playing out well for the “take” overall.
“A fast “take” here by me is that they resign Nevin Lawson and either he or Teez Tabor enter the season as the targeted corner by opposing teams.” – With no rookie drafted or solid veteran signed, this is still the case and yet to be determined.
I projected the starters with the Lions current roster at the time of Davis and Reeves-Maybin. – Still to be played out.
“One has to think that the draft position and talent of Jarrard Davis will change that. He’ll likely receive a full complement of snaps over what Kyle Van Noy did in New England as the main linebacker.”– Still will need to be reviewed when the 2018 season is over.
“Jalen Reeves-Maybin came on late last season for the Lions and did very well. All indications are that he’ll have the shot at the other linebacker spot that could very well produce solid LB2 type numbers for IDP depending on how they feel about his coverage skills.”– Also still in play, but the Lions did bring in decent competition in Christian Jones. This was a “take” made pre-free agency and the draft, I think because of that it deserves waiting for the situation out until the end of the season as well to see just who actually has the most starts and snap coups in the end.
“You’ll notice that Whitehead is gone.” & “I don’t think we see a team friendly contract happening,……..” – And we did not, Whitehead was allowed to move on. The “take” was solid.
“I think we actually see something in the range of $4-$6 million a year range if he is lucky.” – In this portion I made the statement referring to Whiteheads estimated market value reported at the time of $7-$8 million a year. It may be splitting the hairs but the Raiders only gave him just over $6 million a year at $6,333,333. That is closer to the $6 than it is the $7. I’ll claim it as a solid “take” when I know what the linebacker market for free agents ranged as and in what the predicted market was supposed to be.
I projected the starters with the Lions current roster at the time of (3) of Diggs, Wilson, Diggs. – They were projected as the three main safeties to receive snaps with the starting unit, and still in play. They did draft Tracy Walker in the third round of the draft. I still like the odds that I get all three right. Walker would have to really stand out to get more reps than the veterans because Patricia isn’t exactly known to start rookies if he carries his tendencies over from the Patriots.
“We will start with free agent Tavon Wilson, the first “from” Patriot transaction that Bob Quinn made for the Lions. I can see him being signed at a team friendly contract like the one he was signed for the first time by Quinn, perhaps with a slight raise.”– Resigned, Check. Team friendly at a 2 year – $3.5 million a season with optional “out” after 2018, Check. Slight raise, $1.1 million to $3.5 million, in NFL terms, Check.
“Diggs is likely the most secure pickup in the safety group when it comes to a solid role and IDP production for now.” – Standing firm, stay tuned.
“I suggest thinking about selling Quin high if he is stuck in this role by preseason. Quin is older, so this may be the time to cash in anyhow.” –There is no way he drops off the face of the earth, and this ‘take” might not exactly show it’s merits after 2018, we’ll address it after the season.
I projected the starters with the Lions current roster at the time of Zettel, Robinson, Spence, and Ansah. – There is at least one “miss” here as Spence was let go and now in Miami. Question is does this make the whole projection wrong? The hazards of making a “take” early.
“Off the top, I don’t see how the cannot afford to either resign or tag DE Ezekiel Ansah.” – Check, he was tagged at $17 million, so far.
“Patricia will try and assemble a solid defensive line”– Unlikely to be resolved in only one season.
“My personal advises, Jarrad Davis should be the only real target overall. Everyone else at this point is depth options for my IDP lineup, and not excited this time of the year to dig deep on any of them, yet.” – Might have thought this one out a bit better, Diggs “take” could hurt or hinder. And Quin’s role and production a wild card as well.
Giants Calvin Munson
“As an IDP guy for some years now, my attention is just as focused on Munson as it is Goodson. He should be kept track of and considered for a low investment now before he surprises us again in 2018. At the least, we track what the Giants do with the personal.”–
The Ogletree trade does not shut down my thinking here with Calvin Munson. If anything the Ogletree trade keeps this as an open mind “take”. Because if Goodson had shown he was capable enough, why was such a high profile player brought in with Ogletree? Munson could still end up being the more relevant IDP play when the smoke clears. Either by injury, which Goodson has a bit of history of or by taking the next step passing Goodson.
“They (Lions) basically need a decent coverage guy and a sure tackler to insert next to Jarrad Davis. And Reeves-Maybin has that skill set.” –Just like the Munson situation, I’m not counting this “take” out that JRM could be a factor as a starter by the end of the season. Jones and Kennard were signed, but all bets are still in play when it comes to what could happen in Detroit under new head coach Matt Patricia.
“To best describe Flowers role we should compare him to Patriots former stand out Rob Ninkovich, remember him?” & “If we are lucky he’ll get a DL designation in leagues, if not look at him as a possible solid LB2 with upside as Ninkovich had been. This “take” for us to keep track of is as pure as it gets on being a “gut call”, but one we shouldn’t sleep on with an investment as low as a waiver wire pick up at the moment.” – Hate the idea I made a “take” on a Patriots IDP player considering Bill Belichick is so unpredictable. But here it is, and I’m not doubting myself that Flowers will turn some heads in 2018.
This will conclude entry log two of my 2018 IDP Narrative Dossier. And in parting ways again this time I’ll add I’m again confident in the “takes” so far but keep in mind with the risks I mentioned of making “takes” at the time of the year that I did in entry log one. A couple of these “takes” in log two do have less “upside” now while a couple seemed to have gained momentum. If you would like to chat about any of the above because you acted on them, please do, we can access the situations now together as the NFL teams are heading into camps.
Links: Entry Log One