The IDP Tipster goes through takes he made earlier in the year to determine if those takes still hold true as we edge closer to the season.
2018 IDP Narrative Dossier
The sole purpose of the “Narrative Dossier” is to rehash the “takes” in the articles I have written since January of this year for the 2018 season. While assembling those articles to reflect back on and add to throughout the upcoming season in a localized setting. There are a couple of purposes for this venture. First, it is to hold myself accountable to the “takes” I have laid claim to in those articles. For the 2017 season, I lay claim to about an 80% “hit” rate, give or take, on “takes” in articles as well as Twitter posts and short columns during the season. Unfortunately, I did not take the steps I’m taking here in keeping a complete record for easy accountability in 2018.
Unlike last season there will be a direct way of tracking those with the mentality that I like to “practice what I preach” as well “I own what I sell”. I simply see too many “gurus” not apply those morals and either dismiss “takes” when they are wrong or arrange their wording after the fact so that they weren’t. My personal focus when I started to write early in 2017 was never with the intention or dream I’d be the next Matthew Berry on ESPN. It was simply to share what I’ve learned and help where I could in something I’ve loved doing as a hobby.
To be honest, I didn’t even know this industry of writing fantasy football and communication about football on Twitter even existed at this level before 2016. So for me, it has come easily while I’ve ruffled a few feathers since sharing my content out loud and it is now time to own what I feel I am damn good at. This whole idea may be a death wish from some writers perspectives, but would you listen or trust a writer if not confident to say I know what I’m doing and I do it well while proving it? I’ve also never been here to “fluff” what you want to hear but to just be honest and be that guy to help you win this game to the best of my knowledge.
The one other thing about this dossier of the 2018 narratives is that even if it is only one single person happens to come across it, that they may find all of the information to be helpful. We are never going to see me on ESPN or NFL network, but you will see me lay it out wherever I may be with full disclosure and that honesty. While maybe, just maybe, my accountability will mean more in the end than it does comparably to any accomplishments in this industry.
Entry Log One
If we note the dates of the publications and ask most writers when it is at it’s hardest time of the year to attempt secure “takes”, the likely answer would be right at end of one regular season, thru the free agency period, and after the rookie draft. There are just so many variables in that time span that can change everything in one single event occurrence.
But overflowing with confidence after a strong 2017 season I found myself stepping towards that cliff instead of taking a step back from the edge and began the off-season recklessly. I don’t have any regrets in doing so and simply had the intentions to reward all that had supported me in 2017. While I directly wanted to provide as early as possible actions to be executed before any mainstream media or “gurus” caught on. It is a simple philosophy, gain the edge early and let that momentum carry us through and into the following season.
On 1/31; 2018 Safety Investments 0.1
The “Double” in New Orleans with SS Vonn Bell and FS Marcus Williams
“We should look at Vaccaro as last season’s Johnathan Cyprien and expect him to be somewhere else next season.”– So far, so good, but not a “take” as good as just a “call” made.
“………..(Vonn) Bell at a low-end DB1 to High-end DB2 just like this year.” – Despite the Kurt Coleman signing, I remain confident here.
“(Marcus Williams) At this point let’s cover what he did that should have us focusing on obtaining him for 2018. – A 2017 “sleeper” of mine, still a player to own with even more “upside” in 2018.
Pittsburgh’s “Emerging” SS Sean Davis
“Pittsburgh may or may not try to bring in a free agent at linebacker or even draft one.”– They brought in Bostic from Indy to compete. But this is not a “take” per say.
“Leaving Davis with a decent probability of reaching the next tier and with a middle of the pack outcome in his second season……..”– Keywords were “decent probability” and “middle of the pack”. Burnett signing and Edmunds being drafted locks keywords into likely outcomes.
The Rams “Safe Bet” SS John Johnson
“At this point, I would consider him (John Johnson} one of the sneakier players to emerge in 2018.”– Toted as one of my rookie players to watch all last year, I began claiming Johnson as one of my three main breakout players for 2018 per main positions. That has not changed, and after this article’s “take” it was only reinforced with the Rams trading away LB Alec Ogletree. Johnson is now teetering on the Tier 1 options among the DB.
On 2/7; 2018 Linebacker Investments 0.1
The Buffalo Kid
“Buffalo’s Matt Milano is personally my suggested number one breakout player heading into 2018 to be picked up.”– Still arguably the same with more momentum after the spring activities. Remember one thing on a breakout call, he only has to become relevant for our IDP lineups, and at LB I’ll stay with Milano as that number one on the list of breakouts over Johnson because of the designated LB position “known” production over the DB. In other words, a tier 1 DB can basically match the LB2 on paper per stats. Also with the belief that “DBs can be dime a dozen” to stream in-season.
A Miami Reminder
“Look at him (Raekwon McMillan) at the tail end of your starting unit or your first option as depth and the risk versus reward aspect has a lot to like.”– A safer “take” put forth at the time with no injury reports to secure a stronger one. Falls in line behind Milano as second likely breakout candidate for the obvious reason. It’ll basically be his rookie season and the recovery from the injury will still be in play.
The Wait May Be Over In Carolina
“……….(Shaq) Thompson is the logical choice for the Panthers to promote into the weakside linebacker position in place of the aging Davis.”– One of those “takes” I’ll remind everyone, it was made early February and Davis wasn’t suspended four games until April, and Davis has stated that 2018 is his final season. This was another one I feel has only gained in value. His ceiling is only capped by playing next to Kuechly.
Miami’s DT Davon Godchaux
“I made a call on Atlanta’s DT Grady Jarrett this starting late in 2016 towards 2017 and the situation is nearly the same here. (on Godchaux) – This completes the three of my breakout players by position in 2018. Without digging so far into my past posts on Twitter because of the time it would take, I was mentioning at the time the article came out that Suh was likely a cap causality for Miami. A live and learn moment as I don’t recall officially recording the post when I mentioned it a few times on Twitter. I want to say that it was even inserted in the original draft of the article but then removed for publishing my me. Again a live and learn moment to learn to stay with my gut calls as Suh was released mid-March securing what I was “taking” with a little more relevancy. He is my “Grady Jarrett JR” for 2018.
Carolina’s DL Vernon Butler
“The opportunity will be there for Butler as well as for IDP owners that are looking for a DL2/3 type in standard-sized leagues.” – As I mentioned in the general “take” of the article, Lotulelei did move on, but the “take” is hampered a bit now because they did sign Dontari Poe in mid-March. This “take” holds water still, but the glass may be seen now as being half empty over being half full.
New Orleans DL Alex Okafor
“He is definitely a player to pay attention to depending where he lands this offseason.” & “At the least, we have to figure that maybe he gets a “prove it” deal either in New Orleans or elsewhere.” – He is still in solid play here as the Saints handed him a 2-year deal worth up to $10 million. They must have faith in his recovery from the Achilles injury. Okafor staying healthy makes this “take” a leap of faith as the Saints making his contract “worth up to” a sure sign of that.
This will conclude entry log one of my 2018 IDP Narrative Dossier. And in parting ways this time I’ll add I’m confident in the “takes” so far but keep in mind with the risks I mentioned of making “takes” at the time of the year that I did, a couple does have less “upside” while a couple seemed to have gained momentum. If you would like to chat about any of the above because you acted on them, please do, we can access the situations now together as the NFL teams are heading into camps before we know it.
So, until next time, and as always, thanks for reading and feel free to contact me on Twitter for anything IDP @HBogart27 or by email at firstname.lastname@example.org.