The IDP Tipster “Live” as well as an article form and puts his personal spin on the match-ups to jump on and the ones to avoid as we kick off the season with some hard starts and some soft sits.
Before we kick this off I want to ensure anyone who maybe glancing at this article hoping to see the Easy Start/Sit Charts I rolled out last year and had a lot of positive feedback on, that they will be a “thing” again. But for them to be within a range of my comfort level to put out to people interested I need to accumulate at least three weeks worth of stats to figure in all of my four to five step formula.
I say four to five steps formula because I don’t know if I should or should not count my “brain” as one of the steps. After all, something has to calculate what I got in front of me, am I wrong? (lol)
I appreciate all the “behind the scenes” and out loud gestures for the charts to return and happy to say we will be updating the look a bit and adding to each chart some weekly start and sit players in article form as well. For those of you who remember something like these…..
They’ll now be a bit more updated in the look and hopefully easier to read on mobile devices with something based off this….
We will go back to the basics as we had for most of last season in the marking of players to target or avoid. I’ll let our on-site master of all things site related and one of the founders of the IDP Guys website adjust and determine the final look of the product. He’ll only make it better I’m sure, and all I’ll have to do is fill it in weekly and help assist in making those tough decisions about the time bye-weeks start and throughout the rest of the season.
If anyone happens to not have had a chance to use my charts, I’m confident in saying you’ll enjoy the easy formatted way to get the start/sit information you need and with a proven formula to get that task done with a high hit rate. I’m looking forward to bringing them to you and again, what has worked for me for years is now available for those who are interested.
Let’s win some fantasy football this year and do it with me doing all the work for you all via the IDP Guys website.
— "The IDP Tipster" (@HBogart27) September 6, 2018
Wonder why they are “Hard Starts”? Because this early in the season we should all be starting our best possible studs in 99% of the cases for week one. But if there are questions on which stud to start, these are hard takes on players I suggest you’ll not want to overlook if you got them.
And these first five “Hard Starts” were covered once in the IDP Guys podcast recently. I had the pleasure to join them this past recording and I really suggest checking it out HERE. Only the five starts, to begin with, have been covered. So if there ends up being more than five starts, I ‘ll just say I saw more as I researched to get the “soft sits” done. Without further ado, let’s hit on these “Hard Starts”.
Dallas LB Jaylon Smith is going to impress this season and no better way to do it than taking on the Panthers in Carolina. The Panthers offered up nice production to linebackers last season and with Smith at a full tilt, he’ll benefit from Carolina being at home and with a slight advantage in this contest. We should expect an attempt to control the ball and eat the clock up to keep Zeke off the field and out of the contest if the Panthers can manage to keep Dak under control.
We’ll likely see a lot of the second year running back Christian McCaffrey as well as some touches for C.J. Anderson. And not forgetting that Cam Newton has a habit of wanting some running yardage each came as well. With all of this, Smith will be manning the middle linebacker spot and right in position to get us some combined tackles for our IDP production needs.
Washington LB Zach Brown has not been practicing, until today. If he is a full go for the contest he has to be inserted into lineups. With his surrounding talent on that defense, it is the Zach Brown show nine times out of ten. He is taking on the Cardinals who have their star running back in the fold in D.J. Johnson and we know we will see a heavy dose of him in the season opener.
With so many little questions the Cardinals will depend on D.J. just like in 2016. Arizona also offered up some of the best production in 2017 to linebackers as well. If Brown is in the game, we should have him in our lineups.
Jacksonville LB Myles Jack has been moved to the middle of the Jaguars defense as the run-stopping defensive play caller on the field, period. But seriously, they take on a team with a shiny new toy at running back in rookie Saquon Barkley, now you tell me what is not to like about Myles being on the field every down and in a position notorious for IDP production when manned by a player of Jack’s skill set. He is going to be busy this weekend.
Arizona SS Budda Baker made my list for a couple reasons here. Taking on Washington who just Added Adrian Peterson is not only a juice matchup because of the questionable linebackers in from of Baker on the field, but the fact the Skins coach Gruden likes to dink and dunk the short passes everywhere in the middle of the field.
If you own Baker, cash in this first week off the top, he isn’t playing the same exact role as what he did in the former defensive scheme, but he is primed this weekend to make some plays. Did we mention that Washington offers up top third points in production to safeties when Gruden has that offense running on all cylinders?
New Orleans pro-bowl level DE Cameron Jordan has sat out all the preseason games to heal up from what I think was bone spurs, whatever it was, it was not major and he has been practicing. With the Buccaneers getting a fresh Jordan in their faces and no red flags that he’ll not play, we got to trust the beast is going to feed.
Tampa Bay is forced to start declining Ryan Fitzpatrick because Jameis Winston can’t keep his hands or words to himself on top of the fact that unless I’m missing something, the Buccaneers allowed top points in production to DLs in 2017. This is very unlikely to change in week one as the Saints have stacked the defensive line around Jordan allowing him more one on one time with offensive players.
If we take a look, over the last four contests versus Tampa Bay he has recorded eighteen combined tackles, 5 for a loss, 1 pass defended, and 4 sacks. Do we worry about him not playing in the pre-season? I say we do not.
Here are a couple added hard Starts for your viewing pleasure I did not mention in our recent podcast.
Tennessee FS Kevin Byard should have a heyday trying to stop or slow down the Patriots in New England. He is by far one of the most intriguing plays at safety this week as they take on the Tom Brady show the normally offers up top production to safeties as far back as we can imagine. Be sure to have Byrd in that lineup at all costs, he just may not only lead the team in production in week one, he just might be the leading IDP play for you this week overall in your lineup.
Cincinnati DT Geno Atkins as a nice matchup versus the Indianapolis Colts. In leagues needing a couple designated defensive tackles, he would be a great option as a DL2 start. And you certainly could do worse as a DL1 if you’re needing the play and he is sitting on your bench. The Colts revamped offensive line will get a true taste of a top-tier talent this weekend, pencil Atkins in here, he may not be a complete killer play, but he will get you those points to be consistent in a designated DT lineup where it matters.
Miami LB Raekwon McMillan may not be a popular name at the moment due to the reports he hasn’t yet returned to form before his knee injury. But if you’re in a deeper league and sitting on him you have to play this young man. The Titans are coming in offering high reward opportunities in tackles with Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry in the backfield.
As long as he is that every down player in the middle of the defense and facing what could be a production by default situation as the Titans try and control the game flow, he is a must-start until further notice. On a side note, let this young man get his legs back underneath himself. He has what it takes to get this job done, he just needs the time to recover from that knee injury.
In general, I am calling these groups soft because you should keep them in mind as players who won’t be able to produce at the level you’ll need them to.
If the names are not Tremaine Edmunds for the Bills or maybe Darius Leonard for the Colts, don’t trust you rookie IDPs in your starting lineups. Edmunds is going to be in the game no matter what with a sweet matchup with the Ravens, and by default, they are not going to take him out of the contest no matter what.
As for Leonard, he has basically the same situation with facing the Bengals. As for the rest, they are rookies and I don’t know of any situations that don’t have questions about how much they will play or if they’ll be ready. Play it safe if you have other options, I hope you have other options, please tell me you do. We have to learn to take the same approach as the NFL teams, no matter the draft status, in 95% of the cases the make them earn their jobs. So we should make them earn those starts in our lineups.
Last but not least, and recapping, don’t sit studs, but if your stud happens to be a DL in a 3-4 defense, go with another option if you can. We could go over the numbers here, but take my word for it when in general they do not produce as well as a 4-3 DE, or even a stud DT in the 4-3.
And by a quick scan, I do not see any that have trustworthy matchups to make any must starts. Barring J.J. Watt of course. A 4-3 DE/DT 2 tier level player can outperform the 3-4 DLs any given Sunday. I have to ask you to trust me here, think it out, look at your options.
Thanks again for reading and please feel free to find me on Twitter @HBogart27 for anything IDP.