The IDP Tipster Had Made Way Early Breakout Calls And It Is Now Time To Cover The Dynasty Outlooks For 2019 And Beyond
Now with week 12 in the books it is as good as time as any to cover my breakout calls made for this 2018 season. With most of the fantasy football leagues on the verge of starting their playoff processes, I’d like to recap exactly how things have played out in the fantasy regular season for these players. The main purpose is to get a general feeling on 2019 and dynasty leagues.
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2018 Breakout Players
Making the call I did on these players I couldn’t have predicted such a positive outcome as these three players have offered up overall. Because in the end, this season has been good for them in one way or another. The main two obviously peaked as breakouts and the third will still be one that shouldn’t be forgotten about. When I started toting these players at the beginning of the fantasy offseason based off the momentum they had built up in 2017 the expectations weren’t as high as it has played out. I’ve personally enjoyed their production and still highly suggest them for dynasty purposes. These young men are going to be around for some time.
Buffalo Bills Linebacker Matt Milano
What have you done for me lately? Milano is currently sitting at 48th overall in combined tackles among all NFL IDP players. And among the linebackers, he is sitting at 37th. Both of these should have him firmly within being a viable play in any standard league utilizing the standard amount of IDP players in a lineup. And in larger and deeper dynasty leagues it firmly has him slotted as a low LB1 or high LB2. His real positive for IDP has been his ability to make plays.
He has also been credited with nine tackles for a loss, three fumble recoveries, three interceptions with return yards, seven passes defended and one sack. Those type of additional stats is above the normal for a second-year player keeping him as an IDP viable play in the right formats. It is actually those play-making abilities on paper that have him hinged in as high as a low LB1 in a lot of leagues.
Potential Dynasty Outlook. At this point, Milano looks as viable as a future prospect can. He does have some limitations in shedding blocks and such against defenders coming at him. It has cost him some productive contest this year. But in time this will improve as he grows as a player considering he is only in his second season. His coverage grades and the ability to make plays will keep him in contention for a starting role next season. To be honest, he’ll likely just be a walk-on starter as long as he keeps developing.
Let’s also keep this in mind, the third year is generally when we see a player in the NFL make the leap or step into whatever level of player they will be for the rest of their career. Believe this or not, it is harder to find a coverage linebacker with his knack of finding the ball over a block-shedding run stopper. Barring any changes in the coaching staff, and even if there is, Milano at this moment has nothing but upside entering his third season next year in dynasty leagues. He shouldn’t be on any waiver wire now in most formats, nor should he be heading into the offseason with his potential in all formats.
Los Angeles Rams Strong Safety John Johnson.
What have you done for me lately? Johnson is currently sitting at 31st overall in combined tackles among all NFL players. And among the defensive backs, he is sitting at 7th. This puts him in the top range of an every week player to insert in lineups as a top-tier. And as for being 7th overall among the defensive backs, it locks him in as a top-tier one. This would be in any format dynasty or not.
The combined tackle numbers have been his backbone overall, but just like Milano, his play-making abilities have assisted some in his standing as an IDP player to own. He has accumulated additional stats of two tackles for a loss, one forced fumble, three interceptions, and eight passes defended. Sure we would like to see just a little more on the play-making ability side, but considering the high level of fellow defenders around him making plays as well, this isn’t a problem. Either way we cut it, Johnson has shown up as a top-tier defensive back.
Potential Dynasty Outlook. Out of the three players we are covering Johnson is likely the most secure in making a call that he’ll remain what we see now. When I made the call on the three players I suggested that Johnson likely had the higher ceiling in 2018. I don’t think we can argue this is the case. This is also going to be a shorter dynasty take because of his breakout in 2018. It’s simple, going forward he should be as he sits right now, a top 10 option among the defensive backs and one I suggest we don’t let slip by. Also in his second year, this young man has already become an IDP darling before his crucial third season.
I’d like to stop here before we go on to the final player I made the breakout call on. I didn’t realize last January or February, whichever it was, that Milano and Johnson are both out of Boston College. As well as from the same draft class, it simply slipped by me until after last years draft. I don’t know about you but I find this ironic that both are making a mark and had little fan fair at the draft time from a university that wasn’t exactly producing pro players at this level at the time.
This is the likely reason both slipped a bit in the draft as well as under most IDP owners radars at the time. Both of these players were undrafted in most formats and simply sitting on waiver wires just waiting to be scooped up. It’s funny how rookie hype can actually be focused so much on names alone that potential by where a player may land means just as much as anything when finding gems. It’s something I’ve known for years.
Miami Dolphins Defensive Tackle Davon Godchaux
What have you done for me lately? Godchaux is currently 41st among defensive lineman in combined tackles. We won’t bother comparing his current ranking among all the defensive players for a simple reason. He is a defensive tackle and 80% or higher of any defensive lineman will not register among the top 64 in the league in combined tackles.
For example, in the NFL rankings we are discussing, Godchaux is currently tied with defensive lineman Jordan Cameron and has one more than Myles Garrett. So this is a moot point. Defensive lineman makes their case for us in sacks or other play-making statistics. And Godchaux has not been able to excel at this in his first year as a starter. In his second year in the league, he has only recorded an additional three tackles for a loss to his combined tackles. So with there not being any sacks or turnovers or any other meaningful numbers it hurts the case for him to be a solid breakout in IDP this year.
I would like to mention something I feel we should keep in mind. In my process of calling Godchaux out as a breakout in his second season, I referred to him as my Grady Jarrett Jr. Who plays for Atlanta and I had also called out as a breakout player in 2017, which was Jarrett’s third year as a full-time starter in the league. So just maybe I just pulled the trigger a season too early here. I’ll explain with comparing Godchaux second season with the first 12 games including his bye week with Jarrett’s second season including the bye week.
Davon Godchaux 2018 Game Logs
Godchaux to this point of his second season as a full-time starter: 30 combined and 3 tackles for a loss.
Jarrett at this point in 2016 as a full-time rotational player with the starting unit: 33 combined, 3 tackles for a loss and 2 sacks.
In 2016 Jarrett averaged 56% percent of the snap counts on the entire season in a deep rotation among four defensive tackles.
This season Godchaux has averaged 64% of the snaps so far among a three main rotation mainly.
Godchaux currently has a middling group around him in that timeshare.
Jarrett in 2016 had, in my opinion, had better players around him.
So what basically my point is here and not defending my call. Godchaux clearly isn’t what we should tag as a breakout this season. But I think that Godchaux is having it a little rougher than Jarrett did in each of their second seasons. And I personally won’t let Godchaux of the hook as a potential breakout in 2019 which is his third season as I called with Jarrett. And Jarrett did with flying colors. I simply didn’t do my math right and because of it, I’ve been wrong. He started out the season on fire the first four weeks recording 17 of his current 30 combined tackles and all three tackles for a loss came in weeks two and three.
Simply put, I think the poor dude is worn out and a focal point for opposing offensive lines to stop as a cog in the center of the Miami defensive line after making a statement he had arrived in the first few weeks. Only time will tell if I’m even in the stadium with this assumption based on what I see. So we wait as we do with many IDP players.
Potential Dynasty Outlook. Because of all we have discussed and pointed out the best we can do at this time is keep him on the radar for the rest of the season as well as heading into 2019. It will be his third season, that season I mentioned that a lot of IDP players make the step into viable IDP players. If Miami also makes some sort of reasonable move to surround Godchaux with better talent on the line it will help our cause.
But all of this right now doesn’t warrant having him on our dynasty rosters unless it is a very deep format allowing deep stashes or practice squads. And I can’t suggest a defensive tackle as a position worth having on a practice squad either unless it’s designated and has to be that way. As a note, in my personal flagship league with no practice squad and only 28 roster spots, I dropped him a couple of weeks ago to waivers. But I most certainly have my eye on him for 2019.
Well, I hope covering the dynasty outlooks on my breakouts for 2018 was helpful. I will have to admit that Milano and Johnson to me are simply no-brainers but still would have been covered even if I hadn’t “hit” so we’d know. Originally my breakout calls weren’t meant for what Milano and Johnson have achieved. They weren’t called on as players I thought would leap as high as they have. The call was only that they would take the next step and become relevant enough to matter.
There is a difference in my mind there and I do believe I expressed this as I wrote articles on each at different times. So hitting on this level on two of the three has been above satisfying from my point of view. And with Godchaux I’m not as disappointed in his outcome so far as I was in pulling the trigger a year early. At least that seems to be the case at the moment.
Thank you for joining me and as always please feel free to reach out on Twitter at HBogart27 for anything IDP. And be sure to catch us for the Live start/sits on Sundays before the games for those hair-splitting questions to set those lineups.