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Three Under The Radar Super Bowl Value Bets

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As we move closer to Super Bowl Sunday, more prop bets are getting published. Some have value, while there are others you need to avoid.


On February 13, 2022, Super Bowl prop bets, such as the National Anthem OVER or UNDER 95 seconds, becomes extremely relevant. Other luck-based prop bets like, who will win the coin flip or who performs first at halftime, will raise eyebrows. Heck, you can even wager on Cooper Kupp having more receptions than Team USA having gold medals (02.13)!

However, let’s take a look at three Super Bowl LVI prop picks that are offering value.

First Quarter Super Bowl LVI Points – UNDER 10.5

The odds are simply in your favor. Some past Super Bowls have been classics while others have turned into stinkers. What history has taught us, though, is that slow starts are common. The last 10 games have averaged only 8.1 total points in the first quarter.

It makes sense, as everything about this contest is larger than life! Unfamiliar soundings, the thought of a billion fans globally watching your every move, nerves, etc., all play a role in taking the best off their game for perhaps a series or two.

Matthew Stafford has never played in a game of this magnitude before and Joe Burrow is only a second-year player. Both QBs could have huge games, but it is not going to shock anyone should it take time for these stars to get their sea legs underneath them. If your favorite sportsbook is giving you 10.5 — take it and send them a thank you note.

Von Miller Combined Tackles – UNDER 5.5

FanDuel presented an opportunity to bet Von Miller UNDER 5.5 combined tackles. In 15 regular-season games and three playoff contests, Miller was in on 62  total tackles. This works out to be 3.4 per game (62 / 18 = 3.4).

Over the course of this past season, he has only recorded 5.5 tackles in a game twice. Miller recorded six tackles against the Seattle Seahawks on December 21, 2021, and six tackles against the Arizona Cardinals on January 17, 2022.  Asking him to pick up two tackles above his average is too much — ride the less than 5.5.

Joe Burrow, Super Bowl Rushing Yards – UNDER 12.5

In the Championship game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Burrow actually recorded 25 rushing yards on five attempts, but we need to throw this stat out the window. Why? Because it completely goes against the point I am making!

In all seriousness though, over the course of this past season including playoffs, Burrow had 12 rushing yards or more only three times.

  • October 17, 2021, @ Detroit Lions – 5 Attempts 20 Yards
  • December 19, 2021, @ Denver Broncos – 5 Attempts 25 Yards
  • January 30, 2022, @ Kansas City Chiefs – 5 Attempts 25 Yards

Incorporating a Cincinnati Bengals -4.5 pick as part of your StatementGames card is a sound idea.  Being correct with this pick will not be dependent on the rushing abilities of Joe Burrow. Take the UNDER 12.5 rushing yards with confidence.

Looking For Safer Action?

If you’re looking for information on how you can successfully play Sunday’s game, check out Betting On Super Bowl LVI While Minimizing Your Risk.

Be safe and enjoy the game!


Thank you for reading! You can check out all of my gaming, sports investing, and general NFL HOT takes on my IDP Guys author page. Feel free to connect with me on Twitter @MarcSaulino and follow @IDPGuys in an effort to stay informed about everything that is NFL relevant. 

Marc Saulino

I invented alternative form of Fantasy Football called "StatementGames". Having fun writing about my experiences with trading sports cards, sports collectables & NFT’s in an effort to make up for Gambling losses.
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