Hype season is already in full swing in these Twitter streets with training camps starting. Trey Sermon, Michael Carter, and Mike Davis are some of the most hyped running backs in July.
Which of these running backs will help you win your fantasy leagues this year — Trey Sermon, Michael Carter, and Mike Davis? Spoiler alert: only one of them has the ceiling to be a league-winner. I think you already know who that is.
Trey Sermon - San Francisco 49ers
Trey Sermon was the 25th pick of round three, 88th overall, in the 2021 NFL Draft. The 49ers were busy bees in this year's draft — they made a blockbuster trade with the Miami Dolphins to move up to third overall, selecting quarterback Trey Lance; and they traded two fourth-round picks (117 + 121 overall) with the Los Angeles Rams to move up and grab Sermon. That is a good sign for Sermon's fantasy outlook this season.
Jeff Wilson has succumbed to a knee injury and is likely out until at least late October. Raheem Mostert is washed up and old (I am vehemently OUT on him in fantasy, do waste a pick in any format), and constantly battling injuries. That only leaves this year's sixth-round draft pick, Elijah Mitchell, second-year player Jamycal Hasty, and free-agent addition Wayne Gallman fighting for touches. Yes, Mostert might get priority early in the season.
Be patient. It will only be a matter of time before Sermon shines and becomes the mid/late season fantasy RB darling of 2021. His athletic skill and production profiles are not prolific. That doesn't really matter though, as he has the third-round draft capital and football IQ to be successful. Be ahead of the curve — Sermon has league-winning upside in Kyle Shanahan's offense.
Drafting Trey Sermon
I am taking Trey Sermon as early as rounds four or five in redraft. He is easily a top-ten pick in dynasty rookie drafts, including Superflex. You can see where Sermon lands in the IDP Guys ADP rankings, here.
For a head coach who has a history of investing *little* in the RB position (and generating production anyways)
...packaging two 4th round picks (117 + 121) in Trey Sermon is potentially 🔥 significant 🔥https://t.co/USdF5MCs1T https://t.co/orvHTvIyWy
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) May 6, 2021
Michael Carter - New York Jets
The New York Jets selected North Carolina running back Michael Carter with the second pick in round four (107th overall) of the 2021 draft. Last year, they drafted the University of Florida running back La'Mical Perine, also in the fourth round, with the 120th pick overall. Somehow, Michael Carter is being touted as a back-end, first-round pick in dynasty rookie drafts.
I don't get it. Will someone please explain it to me like I'm five years old? I don't hate Michael Carter the player, I hate the unrealistic hype he is receiving.
Yes, the Jets backfield is full of JAGs (just a guy), so there will be an opportunity for someone to break through and shine. I just don't think it's a hands-down lock to be Michael Carter. Especially at the price you're currently paying for him. No thanks. If new head coach Robert Saleh copies part of the Kyle Shannahan offense, that means this would be a heavy RBBC (running back by committee) group.
Saleh brought Tevin Coleman (YUCK) with him across the country to New York from San Francisco. Plus there's still La'Mical Perine, Ty Johnson (my favorite player/value from this backfield), and Josh Adams hanging around from the 2020 team. RIP in peace Frank Gore.
Drafting Michael Carter
I don't want much to do with Michael Carter at his current cost in dynasty startups and rookie drafts. In redraft, the hype train will presumably continue, and managers will reach for him as early as round four, likely averaging out between rounds four-six. I'm hammering wide receivers there instead.
Can DEFINITELY confirm. https://t.co/bsf4tl2dlW pic.twitter.com/cp0qmnBo3h
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) May 18, 2021
Mike Davis - Atlanta Falcons
Mike Davis became relevant again in 2020 after Christian McCaffrey was injured early in the season. Davis is most remembered for his decent 2018 season with the Seattle Seahawks. He then signed with the Bears for the 2019 season but was cut after eight games, and landed with the Carolina Panthers shortly thereafter.
Davis started a whopping 22 games in six years — 12 being with the Panthers in 2020 for CMC relief duty. The picture I'm painting here is that Mike Davis is not a good running back. He has received a ton of volume and been OK, but only when teams had literally no one else to turn to. The volume that he has never been efficient with by the way. Plus, he's old — Davis just turned 29. Don't be distracted by the quads.
Drafting Mike Davis
I want absolutely ZERO shares of Mike Davis in dynasty startups. If you own Davis in dynasty, or draft him at some incredible value, move him IMMEDIATELY after he has a good week. Even if that's week one. Take a future second-round rookie pick, or a nice, young WR/RB prospect, and run.
Davis will be this year's typical RB trap in the "redraft dead zone" of rounds four-seven. I'm begging you — let someone else make that mistake. No, there's not great competition surrounding Mike Davis. Javian Hawkins and Qadree Ollison aren't exactly striking fear into Davis' managers. I'd much rather take the dart throw on either of them over Davis, based solely on cost and potential ROI (return on investment). STAY AWAY
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