Jon puts his IDP predictions (hawt taeks) out there for everyone to see. Will he prove to be right or can you ridicule him for his failures? Let us know which ones you agree or disagree with!
There are a ton of fantasy football “analysts” on Twitter these days. Most of them are quick to point out if one of their “takes” or predictions were right but hardly ever will you hear someone taking responsibility for a miss. This concept is something me and Gary Van Dyke ( @HBogart27 ) were talking about this preseason and what led to his IDP Tipster Narrative Dossier and to this article right here, my version of that same concept.
Gary tracked his takes last year and came up with an 80% success rate for his IDP predictions. Now I could tell you I’ve been playing IDP fantasy since 2004, I could tell you I’m a diamond rating for my Yahoo profile and I could rattle off all the titles and trophies from years past, but that does not really mean anything.
I have seen guys and girls who have never watched a snap of football in their life join a fantasy football league and luck their way into a 1st place season. So instead of all that, Gary and I decided to list out our takes in a public way ahead of time. Throughout the 2018 season we will see how these takes do and at the end of the year both me and him will give our takes a % correct. So without further ado let’s get into some takes for the upcoming season.
These takes will all be IDP related, you can get offensive takes anywhere, it’s tough to find someone who will shoot you straight on the defensive side of the ball. We will start with some of the more obvious guys and work our way back from there. Here we go.
Take No. 1
Joe Schobert of the Browns will have a massively disappointing season compared to 2017 and will probably not even break 100 combined tackles. With the offseason addition of Mychal Kendricks the loser of that deal is Schobert. Kendricks looks to straight out take away Schobert’s job entirely, and if not that then definitely take away his passing down snaps. Best case scenario Schobert loses 1 of his snaps to Kendricks.
On top of that when you add in the Browns getting Jarvis Landry, Tyrod Taylor, Carlos Hyde and drafting Nick Chubb and Baker Mayfield you get an entirely new offense. Certainly, an offense that won’t finish league-worst 32nd in points per game like in 2017. There will be far less defensive snaps overall and of those snaps, Schobert will be losing some to Kendricks. Not great news for Schobert owners.
Take No. 2
Blake Martinez will take a dive off a cliff as well. He benefited from Aaron Rodgers missing most of the season and the offensive trainwreck that was Brett Hundley. Martinez will finish with around 100 combined tackles, and won’t come close to the 144 he put up in 2017. The Packers offense finished 26th in yards last year with Rogers missing most of the season, they finished 8th the year before with Rodgers playing the entire season. The Packers averaged four more minutes of possession per game with Rodgers playing, multiply that by 16 games and Martinez spent about an extra HOUR of time on the field just playing defense last year with Rodgers missing most of the season.
Aaron Rodgers literally means that much to this team. They played exponentially more defensive snaps last season due to his absence, as long as he stays healthy this year Blake Martinez will have far fewer opportunities to make plays and therefore will score far fewer IDP points.
Take No. 3
To complete the trifecta we may as well talk about how Preston Brown is going to be a disappointment compared to last years 144 combined tackles also. He may have some pretty good production the first 4 weeks of the year while Vontaze Burfict serves a suspension, but upon his return, it’ll be a case of too many Indians and not enough chiefs.
No linebacker broke 85 combined tackles last year for the Bengals, Brown’s new team and the production was spread around pretty evenly. With Nick Vigil, Vincent Rey, Burfict and others in the secondary and on the defensive line all getting their share I just don’t see enough production from Brown to match or even come close to the 2017 numbers he had on the Bills. Browns numbers will plummet from his 144 combined tackles last year.
Take No. 4
Jaquiski Tarrt, the as of this moment starting strong safety on the 49ers, will be in the top 10 for DB combined tackles this season as long as he plays all 16 games. He was on course for a monster year in 2017 before a season-ending injury. Also, the 49ers offense doesn’t “wow” me so I think there will be plenty of defensive snaps for him to make this happen.
Take No. 5
Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde of the Bills both had terrific seasons last year. They will either match or improve on those numbers from 2017. Last years linebacking corps consisted of veteran Preston Brown, Veteran Lorenzo Alexander and Veteran Ramon Humber for most of the season. This year’s LB corps is looking to be a lot younger and inexperienced with rookie Tremaine Edmunds at MLB, 2nd-year WLB Matt Milano and veteran SLB Lorenzo Alexander.
The lack of experience will lead to quite a few missed tackles and mistakes that Poyer and Hyde will have to clean up. Not to mention the Bills offense looks to be one of if not the worst in the league this season (extra terrible if McCoy is suspended or worse) so there should be even more defensive snaps then last season.
Take No. 6
Avery Williamson is in position to finish top 10 in combined tackles this season and could easily be top 5. He fills the ILB spot vacated by DeMario Davis who went to New Orleans in the offseason and had put up 135 combined tackles in 2017. The Jets offense should be as bad and most likely worse than last years so defensive snap count will be through the roof. Williamson was very productive during his time on the Titans and his talent level is certainly equal to Davis’s. This is the perfect situation for him to step into and he should pump out a huge amount of IDP points this season.
Take No. 7
Speaking of DeMario Davis, his offseason move to New Orleans while great for his wallet will not be great for his IDP production. If he clears 100 combined tackles I will be shocked. He goes from a team with a terrible offense that ensured he would be on the field most of the game making tackles to a team with an awesome offense with a monster run game.
His defensive snap count will plummet and on top of that, he goes from having to just compete with Daron Lee and Jamal Adams for tackles to being part of a talented defense with several stars. Between the secondary of Von Bell, Kurt Coleman, Marcus Williams and Marshon Lattimore and the defensive line of Cameron Jordan, Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport there are many mouths to feed and far fewer defensive snaps to feed them. Davis will not be anywhere near what he was last season for IDP production.
Take No. 8
Whoever wins the MLB job for the Indianapolis Colts, the WLB job too will clear 100 combined tackles easily unless zombie Andrew Luck crawls out of the grave and comes back this season. Without Luck it’ll be Jacoby Brissett or someone equally terrible running the boat and the defense will be on the field constantly.
Currently, it looks like Antonio Morrison, Darius Leonard, and Anthony Walker are all in play for both the MLB and WLB spots on the Colts defense. This mess probably won’t clear up until closer to the season start but pay attention cause whoever wins those 2 spots will be under the radar guys that could clear 100 combined tackles this season no problem.
Take No. 9
Alec Ogletree, the supremely talented linebacker formerly of the LA Rams and now the anchor for the NY Giants linebackers corps, managed 95 combined tackles in only 15 games for the 1st ranked offensively (PPG) Rams in 2017. He will finish top 10 in combined tackles this season (LB). With far fewer defensive snaps than most teams to work with Ogletree still managed a pretty good end of tier 2 type season last year.
Also, 2017 was a down year for him. 136 combined tackles in 2016 were closer to his usual season production. Alec now takes over as either an ILB or MLB for the Giants and will certainly grab most of the tackle production along with teammate Landon Collins. The Giants have not had an IDP relevant linebacker in years until now with Ogletree.
Take No. 10
Mathias Farley or Clayton Geathers (or even less likely TJ Green), whoever it is who wins the strong safety job for the Colts (my moneys on Farley, 95 combined tackles last season in 15 games last season), will be a tier 1 DB and be in the top 10 in combined tackles for safety this season. Andrew Luck isn’t walking through that door in mid-season form anytime soon and therefore transforming the Colts back into an offensive powerhouse. Jacoby Brissett or someone equally terrible will ensure their offense is terrible and that the defense gets plenty of snaps to make some IDP points.
Take No. 11
Jon Bostic and Vince Williams are not Ryan Shazier. To expect the same type of production or anything remotely close to it is insanity. They will both be tier 3 type guys and neither will clear 100 combined tackles.
Take No. 12
Myles Jack, as long as he stays at the MLB slot in Jacksonville’s 4 defense, will easily clear 110 combined tackles and will definitely finish in the top 15 for combined tackles this season. He put up 90 combined tackles from the strongside linebacker slot last season, a position that is usually never IDP relevant. By moving to MLB he will be in a position to make many more plays on the ball and score loads more IDP points.
Take No. 13
Jarrad Davis will now be the point man in Detroit’s defense with the exit of Tahir Whitehead. IDP-wise Davis will be the guy to own in Detroit. Despite having some trouble on passing downs he should still finish top 20 in combined tackles at linebacker and will be a solid tier 2 guy.
Take No. 14
Daron Lee will take advantage of the NY Jets terrible offense this year and rack up tons of tackles with production by default, just like last season. This year though the chances are good that a rookie QB will be at the helm for a good chunk of the season so I’m seeing an even worse Jets offense than last year, therefore Lee will equal and probably surpass last years numbers. (94 combined tackles in 15 games)
Take No. 15
Mark Barron had 85 combined tackles in 14 games last season in a down year. With the departure of Alec Ogletree, the linebacking corps is now led by Mark Barron who will look to take over as the combined tackles leader for the Rams. He should finish with close to 100 combined tackles even with the Rams prolific offense seemingly improving, even more, this offseason and the dip in defensive snaps that will result from that.
Take No. 16
Jamal Adams had 82 combined tackles in his rookie year last season as the strong safety for the NY Jets. With the Jets offense regressing in the offseason and the strong possibility of a rookie (Sam Darnold) taking the helm for a good part of the season the Jets defense looks to be on the field even more than last year. Factor in the natural progression for Adams in his second season and he will definitely improve on last years stats and finish top 10 in combined tackles for defensive backs for sure.
Take No. 17
Budda Baker, the strong safety for the Arizona Cardinals, will finish top 10 in combined tackles for defensive backs this season and with his “frosting” plays (sacks, INTs, TDs, etc) should be a top 10 safety IDP-wise for sure. The strong safety position for the Cardinals has traditionally been a terrific IDP point producing spot. I see no reason why that doesn’t continue this season, especially with always injured and often underwhelming Sam Bradford at the helm or a rookie (Rosen). Plenty of snaps for the Arizona defense this year.
Take No. 18
Derwin James will definitely be a top 15 defensive back this season and will be a household name like Landon Collins or Reshad Jones when it comes to defensive backs for IDP in the years to come. His draft stock alone guarantees him a starting role this season and the lack of talent around him (besides the defensive line) in LA means he should put up the lions share of combined tackles for the team for years to come.
Tune in for part 2, coming soon, where I continue to hang my booty out over a cliff and present my takes for the 2018 IDP season entirely too early for comfort.
***Obviously most of these takes are dependent on the player in question playing all 16 games and not getting injured, benched or suspended.