Jon Somerset (@Orangeman3142) calls his shot in part 2 of his 2018 IDP take tracker.
In Part 1 of this series I began to lay out my 2018 season-long IDP takes. Me and Gary ( @HBogart27 ) have decided to risk our credibility and hang our butts out to dry weeks before the season starts by making our IDP takes public and therefore allowing ourselves to be held accountable.
At the end of the season we plan on revisiting these articles and coming up with a % we got correct and using that as a future metric to let readers know just how accurate we are with our IDP related views. Without further ado let’s get into part 2 where I continue to lay out my IDP takes for the 2018 season.
Desmond King, the safety\cornerback combo of the LA Chargers, will regress from last years stats. King is now listed as cornerback # 2 now that Derwin James has taken over the safety slot next to Jahleel Addae or Adrian Phillips. This ones a no brainer. Last year the Chargers used King a lot more as a safety then they will this year and as a cornerback only his stats will plummet from last years impressive outing.
John Johnson, the LA Rams strong safety, will improve on his 2017 stats. With the departure of Alec Ogletree it’s now up to lesser talented Mark Barron to man the middle of the Rams defense. Even with a super talented defensive line someone is going to have to clean up missed tackles from an inexperienced and less talented linebacker corps. That would be where Johnson comes in. improving on an already impressive 2017 rookie debut.
Chandler Jones and Vic Beasley will take advantage of their switch to defensive end and both will clear 10 sacks for the 2018 season. Jones had 17 last season as an OLB for the Arizona Cardinals and Beasley had 5 last year and 15.5 the year before for the Atlanta Falcons. While they both may have been OLB in name only the switch to full time DE will allow them to concentrate on doing what they do best, rushing the quarterback.
Luke Kuechly and JJ Watt will both miss time this season and won’t play all 16 games. Kuechly hasn’t played a full season since 2014, Watt since 2015. Luke has serious concussion issues and just via the nature of his position, MLB in a 4\3 defense, he’ll be put into many situations where another concussion is likely this year.
The statistics say having already had one (in Kuechly’s case several) concussion before you are at a much greater risk of suffering another. The odds, unfortunately, say Luke will miss some time this season. Watt has missed 24 games in the last 2 seasons and his list of injuries and surgeries is as long as my arm. It seems likely he’ll get dinged again at some point this season.
Vontaze Burfict will probably miss more than just the first 4 games of the season he’s already been suspended for. Whether it’s from injury or punishment by the league Burfict hasn’t played a full season since 2013. It’s a ridiculous waste of talent (Burfict led the league in combined tackles in 2013 with 171) but it is what it is. He’s already down 4 games to start the season, and there will be more missed time to follow.
Reshad Jones will place 3rd or worse in combined tackles for defensive backs this season, despite leading the way for all DBs with 122 combined tackles last season. The addition of Mincah Fitzpatrick and a healthy Raekwon McMillan will eat into Jones tackle numbers this season. Also Miamis offensive numbers should improve with Tannehill back under center leading to fewer defensive snaps then last season.
This is a recipe for regression for Jones, while players like Landon Collins and Keanu Neal should improve on last years numbers thereby surpassing Jones in tackles for 2018.
Telvin Smith will not be the #1 LB on the Jaguars this season. With Myles Jacks move to MLB in the offseason he will be in position to take over as the team leader in combined tackles. Jack managed 90 combined tackles from the strongside linebacker slot last season, a position that’s almost never IDP relevant, and will flourish at middle linebacker.
Telvin Smiths numbers from 2017 may improve slightly or stay the same since he missed 2 games last year but he won’t be the guy to own in Jacksonville from this season onward.
Sean Lee will finish top 5 in combined tackles for linebackers if somehow he can play all 16 games this season. While this last part is highly unlikely, Lee has actually NEVER played all 16 games in a season his entire career! That’s not a made up stat lol. However Lee has managed some monster seasons even with missing at least one game and usually more every single season.
In 2016 Lee had 145 combined tackles in 15 games and over his career he has managed an average of 9 combined tackles per game. If, god willing, he somehow played all 16 games this year he would be on pace for 144 combined tackles, the same number that Schobert, Martinez and Brown all tied with for the league lead last year.
Darqueze Dennard’s stats will almost certainly drop from last years surprise 85 combined tackles as a cornerback for the Bengals. Eighty-five combined tackles for a corner is unheard of and looking at his entire career it’s clearly a statistical anomaly. With injuries and suspensions (Burfict) last season preventing any of the usual suspects from leading the team in tackles somehow Dennard ended up as the Bengals leader in combined tackles in 2017.
With the offseason signing of Preston Brown and a new defensive scheme that should use George Iloka more it’s far more likely a linebacker or safety leads the Bengals in tackles this season and Dennards stats sink back to normal (which weren’t that great).
Damon Harrisons stats will fall if he is stuck as a nose tackle in the Giants new 3-4 defense. He has flourished as a defensive tackle in the 4\3 on the Giants but has played as a nose tackle in a 3\4 in his career while he was on the Jets and the stats then were noticeably worse then when he is in a 4\3. My hope is that they use him as more then just a space-eating nose tackle and maintain his value somehow.
As a defensive tackle in 2016 and 2017 snacks had 86 and 76 combined tackle seasons. Earlier in his career as a nose tackle on the Jets he had 66 and 55 combined tackles (2013 and 2014). The stats don’t lie.
Joey Bosa will clear 12 sacks this season for the Chargers. In his 2 years in the league he has had 10.5 sacks his rookie season despite only playing in 12 games and 12.5 sacks last year playing all 16 games. 12 sacks seems to be an easy floor for a super talented defensive end who is still learning his full skill set. The sky is the limit for this guy.
Bobby Wagner will have the same or worse stats as he did in 2017 for the Seahawks. Their offseason plan clearly was to address the run game adding 3x offensive linemen (depth only, they all stink) and drafting Rashaad Penny. They should improve on last years horrible 23rd ranked time of possession and 23rd ranked rushing offense, thereby decreasing defensive snaps this season for Wagners IDP purposes.
Also they play 8 teams with 2017 rush defenses 17th ranked or worse, also known as the bottom half of the league, their run game and time of possession will improve this year. Wagner has only played all 16 games 33% of his entire career missing time 4 out of 6 years so an injury is likely. Factor those together and he’ll be lucky to equal last years production and will probably finish with worse stats than 2017.
Tremaine Edmunds will lead the way for the rookie linebackers this season in tackles and will probably win defensive rookie of the year. He’ll certainly clear 100 combined tackles, especially since every single living human being that has played 16 games at middle linebacker for the Bills since 2004 has had at least 100 combined tackles at that position.
That probably goes back even further I just haven’t looked it up. Ok I just looked it up, 2001 was the last time a middle linebacker on the Bills didn’t have at least 100 combined tackles. That’s 16 years in a row of guaranteed production at that position for that team. Edmunds isn’t the guy that’s going to screw that up.
So far that’s the sum of the last year plus of takes from my co-hosting spot on the IDP Guys podcast and Tweets I’ve sent out. I’ve probably forgotten some so you’ll just have to follow me on Twitter ( @Orangeman3142 ) to get the latest IDP hot takes from my brain box.
So now all these takes, along with Gary’s takes, are public and there’s no going back. We will see what this season brings and after it’s all said and done I’ll go back and see how many of these I got right and how many were flops. I’ll use the information to come up with a % correct for future reference.
Regardless of how it goes I hope this inspires some of the other fantasy “experts” to do something similar and go on the record with their 2018 takes before the season starts so they can likewise be held accountable.
After all Confucius says: “Fantasy trophies an expert does not make”. So maybe a solid percentage of correct takes over the course of the year will help to change that. We’ll find out.
***Obviously most of these takes are dependent on the player in question playing all 16 games and not getting injured, benched or suspended.