Looking for some gambling plays? Let's talk about my 5 defensive season-long player prop locks for this upcoming NFL season!
Happy August, everyone! Training camps are in full swing, and you can finally turn your attention back to football. More importantly, our annual summer nightmare of only having baseball to gamble on is over! In this article, I will talk you through my favorite season-long defensive player prop bets for the upcoming season.
What do we look for when it comes to a good defensive player prop? It's the same thing we want in a good IDP — opportunities for playing time, last year's performance, and a degree of consistency to warrant similar expectations in the upcoming year. This consistency can be in the form of being on the same team, no new major off-season additions to the roster, etc.
So what are we waiting for? Let's win us both some money! It's time to get to the season-long player prop locks!
Cole Holcomb
Over 118.5 Tackles + Assists (-115)
Let's get things started with my favorite play: Cole Holcomb over 118.5 tackles and assists. Holcomb has seen a steady increase in production in his first three years in the league. Last year was his most productive, ending with 142 combined tackles. This is a much higher number than the 118.5 number that Vegas is giving us for this year, so what gives?
I imagine the bookmakers expect a big step up from Jamin Davis, who was massively underwhelming last year. The thing is, I don't see this eating into Holcomb's stats enough to warrant such an adjustment. Other than Davis, there aren't any other real threats to eat into Holcomb's stats. Even if Davis takes a step up, Holcomb has more than enough room on the stat sheet to hit 118.5.
We still expect Holcomb to play every down for the Commanders as the quarterback of the defense with "the green dot." We know the Commanders will be on defense quite a bit this year, giving Holcomb ample opportunity. This is an easy over for me going into this year.
Ahmad Gardner
Over 1.5 Interceptions (-120)
This is a "sauce" I can get behind! I know what you're thinking, "Isn't betting on a rookie cornerback risky? We don't know how he will adjust to the speed of the NFL, doesn't that worry you?" In most cases, yes, but not with Gardner. Take a look at his NFL.com draft profile. He possesses all the traits you look for in an NFL corner and should fill a major hole in the Jets' defense in 2022.
The Jets landing spot makes me like the over 1.5 interceptions. Based on where "Sauce" was drafted and the rest of the Jets roster, we know he will see a LOT of playing time. The Jets also project to have an above-average rushing defense this year, leading me to believe teams will try to throw on them more often than not. This will lead to plenty of chances for interceptions.
We know that Gardner has the talent to play in the NFL and that he'll have opportunities to make plays. Even if he takes some time to adjust, the number being 1.5 interceptions gives Gardner a ton of time to figure it out and still hit the over. This leads me to believe Gardner will get at least two interceptions over the entire year.
Denzel Perryman
Over 114.5 Tackles + Assists (-115)
Here's another over I LOVE. I wrote about Perryman's journey here, but the long and the short of it is Perryman needed a change of scenery. In his first six years in the league with the Chargers, he averaged only 58.2 combined tackles a season. Last year after going to the Raiders, Perryman went off for 154 combined tackles. This is quite the improvement in production!
I see Perryman having a very similar year this year. We expect he will earn "the green dot" for the Raiders again this year, solidifying playing time. The Raiders' only real addition that could impact Perryman's stats is Jayon Brown, but I don't see him taking away enough production to warrant taking the under here. Take the over 114.5 tackles and assists, and be glad you did!
Roquan Smith
Under 147.5 Tackles + Assists (-115)
Welcome to maybe the scariest of my best bets! Roquan Smith is a freaking tackling machine, racking up 163 combined tackles last year. The Bears' defense looks very similar to what it looked like last year, only adding Jaquan Brisker and Nicholas Morrow as any threats to Smith's tackle opportunities. So why do I like the under here?
I'll tell ya! For one, Smith has only hit over 147.5 tackles and assists once in his four-year career. In each of those years, Smith played a TON, so it's not because he wasn't getting opportunities in the three years he didn't hit over that number. Secondly, there is currently a standoff between the Bears and Smith regarding his contract.
The 147.5 tackles and assist number is crazy high. We know he'll rack up a bunch of stats when he plays, so this under will always feel in jeopardy. However, if Smith misses any time for any reason, it will be hard for him to hit that over. I like taking the under here and just closing my eyes until the end of the season and cashing that under!
Micah Parsons
Under 10.25 Sacks (-105)
Maybe it's just me, but I never enjoy rooting for an under. Especially one involving one of the hottest players last year in Micah Parsons, as splash plays are always fun to watch. Parsons exploded onto the scene last year, going off for 13 sacks and 84 combined tackles. For me, the under 10.25 sacks come down to perceived positional usage for Parsons in 2022.
Last year Parsons was forced into a defensive edge role after Randy Gregory and DeMarcus Lawrence were unavailable for the Cowboys' defense. With Lawrence coming back and the addition of Dante Fowler to the defensive line this year, I expect the Cowboys to rely less on Parsons to get after the quarterback. This will limit his ability to get up to the 10.5 sacks he will need to hit the over.
Much like with Roquan Smith, this is another bet you will need to make and then forget about it until the end of the year. Parsons will be all over the field making plays, I just see his production shifting to more tackles and fewer sacks based on the Cowboys' defensive personnel. Take the under with confidence.
Thank you for reading my IDP season-long player prop article! Be sure to reach out and let me know what you think I got right and what you'll be fading! You can find all my work on my IDP Guys Author page. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @mrecord21 and follow @IDPGuys to keep up to date with all the latest fantasy news!
