Will Shaq Barrett continue his monster start to the season? Is OLB the new MLB? Did I talk about crapping my pants on the Big3IDP podcast this week? All that and more on this weeks episode!
This article series will be set up exactly the same as last years was. For the Thursday night games I will be tweeting the start or sit on Twitter (@Orangeman3142). This article will publish weekly on Saturday morning and will cover all of the Sunday games and the Monday night game as well.
These start or sit decisions are only suggestions the responsibility for your lineup is ultimately yours and yours alone. I have been playing IDP fantasy football for sixteen years now so this isn’t my first rodeo and I’ll do my best to be as accurate as possible each week. These decisions I’m recommending are the same ones I’m making in my own lineups so we sink or swim together if you do decide to take any of this advice. Good luck in your matchups this week.
Every single game, team and IDP relevant player will be covered in this article series all year from start to finish. The production will be divided into categories like last year, this is how it looks.
Tier 1 Production: These players have the best matchups based on their playing time, past production, talent level and opportunity. They have the most solid floor and a terrific ceiling. If you need guaranteed production these players are the best bet to get that for you. These will likely be obvious most of the time.
Tier 2 Production: These players will get you some points but are missing something that makes them your best choice. This could be a lack of playing time, talent or some other factor that hurts their chances at an outstanding performance. These players are usually a good option in deeper leagues with large rosters or all IDP leagues.
Tier 3 Production: These players are a shot in the dark. These are starts you will likely only make in larger leagues with huge rosters or during bye weeks or for short term injury replacements. There’s a chance it could work out but not a great one due to any number of factors including lack of playing time, talent or ideal matchup. This tier is as close to “sit” as you can get while still having some value. These players are mostly used in larger leagues with huge rosters and in all IDP leagues.
Sit: Pretty easy, sit em. For any number of reasons from a nagging injury to lack of playing time, talent or ideal matchup these players should NOT be started this week. I will be wrong on these occasionally throughout the season but at the time of publishing the players in this category are far more likely to bust and get you nothing rather than have a good or great week.
***Player situations change due to injury and other factors, this article was written days before Sunday so please pay attention and adjust your lineup accordingly ***
***If I don’t mention a player they are a sit or just not on my radar yet which likely means they should be a sit. If a player is inactive or injured after this article is published please use common sense and sit them. Check the inactive list at 11:30 AM eastern time on ESPN and NFL websites to check for surprise inactives each Sunday***
Last week I made approximately 231 “decisions” (start or sit) and got 174 correct or in the ballpark and 57 incorrect or not even close for a 76% correct rate. My average for all of last season was 74% correct overall and through week two we are holding at 75% correct for this season. Let’s dive into this weeks games.
***For any “EDGE” players listed the rule of thumb is to drop them a level in expected production from where they are listed if you start them as a regular linebacker instead of in a specific “Edge” or “OLB” slot in your league. This is due to the inconsistent nature of production for these players being sack dependent for the majority of their points. If your league has an “Edge” or “OLB” slot to plug them in to then everyone takes the same risk putting those players in that slot each week, however if you choose to use these players in a regular linebacker slot there’s a good chance they don’t get a sack and you end up with little to no points from them.
They are a boom or bust option when used in a regular linebacker slot. Keep that in mind as you play Shaq Barrett or Whitney Mercilus this week, it’s been all sunshine and rainbows so far but there will be weeks where they don’t have any sacks and it won’t be pretty if you started them in a regular linebacker slot and your opponent started a guy like KJ Wright in that same slot when KJ gets his usual 4-8 tackles and you’re down that many fantasy points in just that one player to player matchup. Buyer beware.***
Is this the man to lead us all to waiver wire glory for the rest of the season? Kemal Ishmael gets his chance to shine.
Titans @ Falcons
Sits: All others & Wesley Woodyard (LB) *Playing time*
Tier two starts: Davondre Campbell (LB) Kemal Ishmael (S)
Sits: Falcons Cornerbacks, this is not an ideal matchup to start or stream Falcons corners
Will Tremaine Edmunds continue to make me look ridiculous for calling him the LB1 before the season?
Patriots @ Bills
New England Patriots
Tier one starts: Jamie Collins (LB) *I still don’t believe this but I’d be a moron not to put him here, start at your own risk though, playing time and nature of Pats IDP in general*
Tier two starts: Kyle Van Noy (LB) Donta Hightower (LB)
Sits: Patriots Cornerbacks, this is not an ideal matchup to start or stream Patriots corners. Also it should be said that trusting any Patriots IDP at all, like ever, is not a great idea. I’ve seen this movie a few times it always ends the same.
Sits: Lorenzo Alexander (LB)
Will Damon Snacks Harrison have another great week of production with less than ideal playing time?
Chiefs @ Lions
Kansas City Chiefs
Raiders @ Colts
Los Angeles Raiders
Tier one starts: Karl Joseph (S)
Tier three starts: Clelin Ferrell (DE) Jonathan Hankins (DT) Raiders Cornerbacks, this is an OK matchup to start or stream Raiders corners.
Sits: Everyone else, Nicholas Morrow (LB) might be playable in super deep leagues but I’m all set personally.
Tier one starts: Darius Leonard (LB) *If healthy* Anthony Walker (LB) *If Leonard doesn’t play, tier two if he does*
Sits: Everyone else, keep an eye on the Darius Leonard situation prior to kickoff whether or not he plays effects many situations with the Colts IDP this week.
Missing: This man was last seen in the San Diego area and was reported to be a top three defensive end but has been nowhere to be found this season, contact local authorities with any information.
Chargers @ Dolphins
Los Angeles Chargers
Tier two starts: Melvin Ingram (DE)
Sits: Kyzir White (LB) *Playing time*
Tier one starts: Jerome Baker (LB) Sam Eguavoen (LB)
Sits: Everyone else
Will Cole Holcomb continue to put up terrific numbers with less than ideal playing time?
Redskins @ Giants
Tier one starts: Landon Collins (S)
Tier three starts: Montae Nicholson (S) Daron Payne (DT) Matt Ioannidis (DE) Montez Sweat (EDGE) Redskins Cornerbacks, this is an OK matchup to start or stream Redskins corners.
Sits: Shaun Dion Hamilton (LB) *Playing time*
New York Giants
Sits: Micheal Thomas (S)
Myles Garrett continues to dominate opponents like I dominate my toilet after Taco Bell
Browns @ Ravens
Sits: Browns Cornerbacks, this is not an ideal matchup to start or stream Browns corners.
Tier one starts: Patrick Onwuasor (LB)
Tier three starts: Kenny Young (LB) Ravens Cornerbacks, this is an OK matchup to start or stream Ravens corners.
Sits: Chris Board (LB)
JJ Watt thinking about clapping the cheeks of anyone who doubts he’ll have tier one defensive end numbers this season
Panthers @ Texans
Sits: Dontari Poe (DT)
Tier two starts: NA
Tier three starts: Tashaun Gipson (S) DJ Reader (DT) Texans Cornerbacks, this is an OK matchup to start or stream Texans corners, preferably Jonathan Joseph.
Sits: Jahleel Addae (S) *Playing time*
Aaron Donald looks to parlay his excellent performance against the Browns into another twenty sack season
Buccaneers @ Rams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sits: NA, everyone else.
Los Angeles Rams
Tier three starts: Taylor Rapp (S) Micheal Brockers (DE)
Sits: Samson Ebukam (LB) *Playing time*
Bobby Wagner, as consistent as bubble guts after Chipotle
Seahawks @ Cardinals
Tier one starts: Bobby Wagner (LB) JaDaveon Clowney (DE)
Tier two starts: KJ Wright (LB) Bradley McDougald (S)
Sits: LJ Collier (DE) *Playing time, health* Seahawks Cornerbacks, this is not an ideal matchup to start or stream Seahawks corners.
Tier two starts: Haason Redick (LB)
Tier three starts: DJ Swearinger (S) Terrell Suggs (EDGE) Cardinals Cornerbacks, this is an OK matchup to start or stream Cardinals corners.
Sits: All others, there’s some linemen with decent playing time but no standout production or consistency.
This is the man Kirk Cousins has seen in his nightmares all week
Vikings @ Bears
Tier three starts: Anthony Harris (S)
Tier two starts: Ha Ha Clinton Dix (S) Eddie Jackson (S) Danny Trevethan (LB)
Sits: Roy Robertson Harris (DL) *Flash in the pan week one*
Von Miller looks to do the Aztec two step on everyones favorite new quarterback this season
Jaguars @ Broncos
Sits: Najee Goode (LB) *He only had significant playing time due to Myles Jack injury last week* Jags Cornerbacks, this is not an ideal matchup to start or stream Jags corners.
Tier one starts: Von Miller (EDGE) Josey Jewell (LB)
Tier three starts: NA
Sits: Derek Wolfe (DE) *Playing time* Broncos Cornerbacks, this is not an ideal matchup to start or stream Broncos corners.
Cowboys @ Saints
Sits: Sean Lee (LB) *Playing time*
New Orleans Saints
Sits: Kiko Alonso (LB)
Jessie Bates, shattering the FS aren’t IDP relevant myth since 2018
Bengals @ Steelers
Tier three starts: Bengals Cornerbacks, this is an OK matchup to start or stream Bengals corners, preferably Dre Kirkpatrick.
Sits: All others
Tier three starts: Marc Barron (LB) Bud Dupree (EDGE) Steelers Cornerbacks, this is an OK matchup to start or stream Steelers corners.
Sits: NA, all others.
***Please make sure to check the inactives that come out each Sunday before the games start to make sure your players aren’t a surprise inactive due to a surprise injury. Obviously if I have any of these guys listed as a start of any kind and they are inactive DO NOT START THEM. This article is written usually days before the games and surprise injuries can and will happen, make sure you stay up to date to avoid getting a surprise zero in your lineup***
***These are only suggestions ultimately it’s your decision who you start or sit. If a player gets hurt or has a bad game it happens it’s part of the game and not the result of me using a voodoo doll with your fantasy teams name on it. I wish you all nothing but the best and hope you win all your matchups this and every week. Take home that hardware.***
Keep an eye out for my instant reaction and defensive waivers article dropping during the week next week, likely Thursday morning. I’ll be covering all the production and playing time from every single IDP relevant player and giving you options for defensive waivers. We’ll go over the weeks results and make sure you are ahead of the curve for getting any of those surprise studs AKA Darius Leonard last year. The next weeks start or sit will drop next Saturday morning and the Thursday night games start or sit will be in Tweet form (@Orangeman3142). Also make sure and catch our weekly podcast on all your pod catching sites dropping Tuesday night or Wednesday morning all season long. Idpguys.org will continue to be your one stop shop for all things IDP.
Thank you for reading and good luck in this weeks matchups.
Follow Tony Johns.