Troy Hills magical season continues
Welcome to Johny The Greek’s Cornerbacks Corner week fourteen. Week thirteen was solid as we put in yet another week of good results and effective streams. Last week and were at 77% accurate for the week, that keeps us around 75% for the season which is pretty pretty good for a position as naturally spotty and inconsistent as cornerback. As the season continues I’m becoming more and more comfortable with the rookies and injury replacement corners I haven’t had a ton of experience streaming with before and the overall accuracy has drastically increased since the first couple weeks of the season. As we know what each teams offensive and defensive strengths look like and continue to learn more every week we should get better and better as the season continues. Let’s get the usual stuff out of the way and get into our options for streaming corner.
If you’re new to this article series the idea behind it is that in the IDP world cornerbacks are the red headed step child, often neglected or scoffed at. Not here. I freaking love streaming corners and have for some time now. We’re going to be looking at things like expected game script, opposing offensive tendencies, snap counts, role and historical production to inform our weekly decisions on what corners are an “ideal” streaming option. By giving this entire thing more than two seconds thought we will have a distinct advantage over our opponents who are not doing this over the course of the season. We are going to put ourselves in the best position possible every week to score the most IDP points humanly possible from our cornerback slots.
Just a little background, I’ve been playing IDP for seventeen years now and streaming corners for well over a decade of that time. I have won many titles in both redraft and dynasty and also in best ball and DFS as well as college fantasy football. I am a true degenerate. Personally I like to stream not only whatever the current week is but if my bench is big enough I’ll load up two more ideal streamers for the following week and by doing so I’ve already taken my pick of the litter a week before anyone else is even thinking about their corners. Corner is a naturally spotty position but by looking at all the factors I listed above we will have better outcomes than the majority of IDP owners who simply put in a “known” corner with a big name (Richard Sherman for example) into their corner slots and ride out the production whether or not that matchup makes sense each week. That won’t be us, we’re going to waterboard our opponents with ideal matchups all season until they drown from our flood of IDP points.
It looks like we’ll have some pretty solid matchups this week and we’ll continue to target those for our ideal matchups but in today’s NFL where passing is the name of the game I’m sure we’ll find solid streaming options in just about every matchup so even those of us in the deepest of leagues have some options. Alright let’s have a look at how we did last week with some transparency and have a look at this week’s matchups. I always give last weeks results as well as an overall season long accuracy because it’s important to be honest and up front with stuff like this, if I’m in a slump and making bad decisions you’ll know it and can decide if you want to follow these streaming suggestions or not.
Last week I made 53 recommendations, of those 9 were declared inactive or injured, 34 were correct (met or exceeded projection) and 10 were incorrect (below projection). We don’t count acts of God here and I specifically ask people to check for inactives before each game so discounting those I was 77% correct last week, 75% accurate for the season overall. Of those 34 correct calls last week 12 of them were “massive hits” (doubled or tripled projection) for a 35% massive hit rate this week which is excellent yet again, over one third of all the correct calls blew up for a huge week for your IDP defense. This is the way.
Disclaimer Time! I’m not going to get all of these correct. Cornerback especially is a wildly inconsistent position for production in IDP fantasy football. That’s why most people hate it with a passion. My whole thing is to put yourself in the best position to succeed by looking at all the variables and making the absolute best streaming call possible. After that you pray. Your team is your responsibility and yours alone, you set the lineup not me. Take ownership if things go south, these are only suggestions. I will do my absolute best to make sure that these recommendations are the best possible and will base these on factual information and statistics from places like NFLGsis.com, PFF and other fantasy and NFL data and statistics sites. I will also use the force, sometimes a gut feeling is all I have to go on in an unknown situation but if it comes down to that just know this isn’t my first rodeo.
I don’t work for the NFL, I don’t get to sit in on defensive team meetings for all thirty-two teams, I don’t get inside information. If a player has looked solid all season and has been playing a ton of snaps and they get yanked right before a game obviously I had nothing to do with it and since I don’t work for said team no one told me. (See Vernon Hargreaves 2019). If someone goes down with an ACL it’s not because I made a voodoo doll of them and stuck it with pins. These decisions are the same ones I’m making for my teams so if things go bad for you they go bad for me as well. I’m just here to help, don’t kill the messenger.
Outlook: This will be a brief overview of the two offenses and how that will effect the outlook for each teams cornerbacks corps. We’ll look at offensive ranks, expected game scripts and how the game should go. This will help us identify if this is a matchup we want to target for streaming corners or not.
Ideal Matchup: This is the best possible matchup for this teams cornerbacks, streaming any corners from this team, especially guys that are talented and play all the snaps gives you the best chances at excellent production from those corners.
Solid Matchup: This isn’t a perfect matchup to stream corner but it’s still pretty good, if you’re in a deeper league and have fewer options to stream from this matchup is still a better option than most.
Avoid: This matchup will likely be terrible to stream corner from, due to anything from a god awful opposing quarterback who can’t complete passes to a banged up wide receiver corps or even a run first offense like the 2019 Ravens were (they didn’t pass all that often because frankly they didn’t need to, their run game was ridiculous) there’s something that makes this a bad matchup to stream corners from, avoid if possible. However there may be specific corners who get a “solid” in an otherwise “avoid” matchup simply due to their talent and ability to make plays in all aspects of the defense (see Logan Ryan (CB)).
OK: I get it, you’re in a 32 team single copy league and you don’t have any options, yes this guy plays enough for you to start but that’s about the only thing going for this corner.
This is the way: If you see this it means this game has the seal of Baby Yoda and is “The Way”. These are my favorite matchups to stream from this week and have the blessing of the child.
This is not the way: If you see this it means this is probably not a great game to stream corner from, this game does not have the blessing of the child. It is not the way. This game could be possibly cursed by the “wat”.
***There will be games where I don’t recommend streaming corners from one team or another in the “outlook” portion of the matchup but still have some guys listed as “solid” etc in the actual player recommendations, this is because I’ve been in those 32 team leagues and all IDP leagues and that’s what those are aimed at, if you HAVE to use guys from that matchup because you don’t have any other options then I’ll help identify who are the best of the worst options.***
Texans @ Bears
Outlook: The Texans have a top ten passing attack and the Bears do not, this is a smash start for Fuller and to a lesser extent Skrine and Johnson, we can probably sit our Texans corners unless in deeper leagues. One half of this matchup is very solid, overall neutral. Bonus poopy points for being outside in Chicago in December.
Vernon Hargeaves (CB) OK
Phillip Gaines (CB) OK
Lonnie Johnson (CB) Avoid (Playing time)
Kyle Fuller (CB) Ideal
Jaylon Johnson (CB) Solid
Buster Skrine (CB) OK
Cowboys @ Bengals
Outlook: This one could be weird, neither passing attack is real great with backups at the helm but then again neither defense is all that great either. It’s outside in Cincy in December so that doesn’t help either. We can use the guys who play enough for those folks in crazy deep leagues but in general I’d avoid this one. Almost a “Wat” but could not quite.
Chidobe Awuzie (CB) Solid
Jourdan Lewis (CB) OK
Reggie Robinson (CB) Avoid
Le’Shaun Sims (CB) Solid
William Jackson (CB) Solid
Mackensie Alexander (CB) OK
Chiefs @ Dolphins
Outlook: We will 100% start our Dolphins corners and it will feel very good against the best passing attack in the league in the nice warm Florida weather. As for Chiefs corners I’m probably all set but I’ll still list them for guys in crazy deep leagues, overall a decent matchup just because the Dolphins corners side of this is so excellent.
Kansas City Chiefs
Bashaud Breeland (CB) OK
Chavarious Ward (CB) OK
L’Jarius Sneed (CB) Avoid (Playing time)
Xavien Howard (CB) Ideal
Byron Jones (CB) Solid
Nik Needham (CB) Solid
Cardinals @ Giants
Outlook: This is very nice for our Logan Ryan (CB) and James Bradberry (CB) shares this week but unfortunately for Patrick Peterson (CB) and company the Giants are 29th in the league for passing offense so I’ll be skipping those Arizona corners this week. Another “meh” matchup with one side being very good and the other being very bad.
Patrick Peterson (CB) Solid
Dre Kirkpatrick (CB) OK
Byron Murphy (CB) Avoid (Playing time)
New York Giants
Isaac Yiadom (CB) Solid
James Bradberry (CB) Ideal
Logan Ryan (CB) Ideal
Vikings @ Buccaneers
Outlook: Two teams that very much need a win with middle of the pack but towards the good end passing attacks outside in Tampa Bay fighting for a wild card slot in mid December, I do like that quite a bit. Neither pass defense is incredible either, both middle of the pack. This is the closest thing I’ve seen to being blessed by the child so far this week, I like both sides a good amount but like starting those Vikings corners just a little bit better.
Cameron Dantzler (CB) Solid
Jeff Gladney (CB) Solid
Kris Boyd (CB) OK
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carlton Davis (CB) Solid
Sean Murphy Bunting (CB) OK
Jamel Dean (CB) Solid
Ross Cockrell (CB) OK (If Dean is injured and out, avoid otherwise)
Broncos @ Panthers
Outlook: The Panthers used to be a top ten passing attack but have since fallen from grace and are missing two solid pass catchers this week with DJ Moore (WR) and Curtis Samuel (WR) both likely out with Covid so I’m hesitant to play the Broncos corners but they’ll still have value especially in deeper leagues. As for Panthers corners not only is that unit still very much in flux it’s HCL and company not the greatest show on turf in town this week so I’m likely all set with any of them. Once again a very “meh” matchup.
Bryce Callahan (CB) Solid
Kareem Jackson (CB) Solid
AJ Bouye (CB) Avoid (Suspended)
Micheal Ojemudia (CB) OK
Rasul Douglas (CB) OK
Troy Pride (CB) OK
Donte Jackson (CB) Solid (If healthy, risky though he could see less playing time than usual if back this week)
Corn Elder (CB) Avoid (Playing time)
Titans @ Jaguars
Outlook: Two middle of the pack passing offenses in a divisional matchup outside in Florida so that’s decent, neither pass defense is good at all and we’ve seen this Jags team put up points against the Browns and Vikings back to back weeks with a backup quarterback at the helm, we could get some fireworks here so I like it. The trick is figuring out who to start to Jacksonville, for the Titans we’ll go with our usual two and leave Desmond King (CB) on the bench due to lack of playing time. Solid matchup but not worthy of the blessing of the child.
Malcolm Butler (CB) Solid
Breon Borders (CB) Solid
Desmond King (CB) Avoid (Playing time)
Sidney Jones (CB) Solid (If healthy)
Tre Herndon (CB) Solid
Luc Barcoo (CB) OK (If Hayden, Henderson and Jones are all out, avoid otherwise)
Colts @ Raiders
Outlook: The Colts have been a top ten passing attack for the better part of a month now and have just barely fallen out of that tier to 11th overall and the Raiders are middle of the pack but have shown us on several occasions this season that they can pass if they need to. They’ve also shown us that they can get almost shut out by a God awful Falcons defense so I don’t trust them all that much. We can start our Raiders corners and go with our Colts only in deeper leagues with fewer options. Decent matchup that could be excellent or just as easily could be crap so “meh” overall.
Kenny Moore (CB) Solid
Xavier Rhodes (CB) Solid
Rock Ya Sin (CB) Avoid (Playing time)
Las Vegas Raiders
Travon Mullen (CB) Solid
Damon Arnette (CB) Solid but risky, made of glass
Nevin Lawson (CB) OK (If Arnette is out, avoid otherwise)
Lamarcus Joyner (CB) OK
Jets @ Seahawks
Outlook: I’m starting Bryce Hall (CB) literally everywhere, Lamar Jackson (CB), the bad one, is a nice option here as well. As for Seahawks corners we can fire up DJ Reed (CB/S) and ride that train once more but beyond that and maybe Shaq Griffin (CB) it gets poopy very quickly. Another somewhat OK matchup.
New York Jets
Bryce Hall (CB) Ideal
Lamar Jackson (CB) Solid
Arthur Maulet (CB) Avoid (Playing time)
DJ Reed (CB/S) Solid
Quandre Diggs (CB/S) OK
Shaq Griffin (CB) Solid
Packers @ Lions
Outlook: The 5th and 12th overall passing attacks inside in a divisional matchup with two stud quarterbacks looks terrific. The Lions defense is hot dog crap and will get absolutely destroyed through the air plus Green Bay is the best time of possession team in the league so if we can figure out who the Lions corners are we can definitely use them this week. For Green Bay we’ll go with our two excellent options in King and Alexander and leave the rest. This one actually is blessed by the child. No weather shenanigans, should be lots of points and scoring and division matchup means this probably won’t just be a one sided affair but of course Green Bay will win in the end. This is the way.
Green Bay Packers
Kevin King (CB) Solid
Jaire Alexander (CB) Solid
Chandon Sullivan (CB) Avoid (Playing time)
Amani Oruwariye (CB) Solid
Jeff Okudah (CB) Solid (If healthy, risky though)
Darryl Roberts (CB) OK (If no Okudah, avoid otherwise)
Justin Coleman (CB) OK (If no Okudah, avoid otherwise)
Saints @ Eagles
Outlook: The Saints don’t pass a ton with Taysom Hill (QB) playing and are we really going to trust Jalen Hurts (QB) in his first ever start against one of the best defenses in the league outside in December? Didn’t think so. This feels like a “Wat” but I’ll list the usable options in stupid deep leagues.
New Orleans Saints
Janoris Jenkins (CB) Solid
Marshon Lattimore (CB) Solid
No significant third corner
Darius Slay (CB) Solid
Avonte Maddox (CB) Solid
Nikel Robey Coleman (CB) OK
Falcons @ Chargers
Outlook: The 7th and 4th overall passing attacks outside in Los Angeles with no snow or weather shenanigans in what could be an absolutely epic shootout, who gives a shit about the defenses, they’re both bad anyways. This is the way. This one is blessed by the child
AJ Terrell (CB) Solid
Darqueze Dennard (CB) Solid
Isaiah Oliver (CB) OK
Los Angeles Chargers
Micheal Davis (CB) Solid
Chris Harris (CB) Solid
Casey Hayward (CB) OK
Football Team @ Niners
Outlook: Middle of the pack and really bad respectively for passing offense plus two top ten passing defenses equals a snoozer with no offense and not many completed passes. Anything is possible but on paper this looks terrible. This is not the way.
Washington Football Team
Kendall Fuller (CB) Solid
Ronald Darby (CB) Solid
Jimmy Moreland (CB) OK
San Francisco 49ers
Richard Sherman (CB) Solid
Jason Verrett (CB) Solid
Emmanuel Moseley (CB) OK
Steelers @ Bills
Outlook: This one could be a shootout and just as easily could be a defensive struggle, no way to know for sure, the Bills have a top three passing attack and the Steelers are just outside the top ten but both defenses are good, second overall for the Steelers and middle of the pack towards the good end for the Bills. In this one we start our studs and the guys who play enough in deeper leagues and avoid it entirely in shallower leagues with more options.
Joe Haden (CB) Solid
Steven Nelson (CB) OK
Mike Hilton (CB) Solid
Tre’Davious White (CB) Solid
Levi Wallace (CB) Solid
Taron Johnson (CB) OK
Ravens @ Browns
Outlook: The 32nd and 26th overall passing attacks outside at night in December in windy ass Cleveland. I’m all set. Absolutely a waste of two or three excellent corners but I’d consider starting Humphrey and Peters anyways just because they’re really good IDP corners and sometimes matchup doesn’t matter for them. For Cleveland if Ward can play I’d consider him for the same reason but in general I’d steer clear of this one unless in a deeper league. Not quite a “Wat” just because of the star power at corner on these teams (assuming Ward plays).
Marcus Peters (CB) Solid
Marlon Humphrey (CB) Solid
Anthony Averett (CB) OK
Denzel Ward (CB) Solid (If healthy)
Kevin Johnson (CB) OK
Terrence Mitchell (CB) OK
MJ Stewart (CB) Avoid (Playing time)
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