The time has come to close out this short series of possible IDP busts based off ADP! With it being my first year in writing, I probably shouldn't make too many bold takes, but I still believe it's my responsibility to let my readers know about players who may not give you the IDP production you're looking for when you draft them. Who are the last players to make the list? I close out the series with two linebackers for whom we should temper our expectations.
San Francisco 49ers, LB, Fred Warner 2019 Statistics: 89 Solo, 29 Ast, 7 TFL, 3 Sacks, 1 Int, 3 FF, and 9 PD.
When the 2019 season ended. I was pretty high on Fred Warner. Maybe it was because I had on him on a couple of rosters? Maybe it was because he was an impact players on one of the best defenses in the league last season? Maybe it was because I read so much about him on Twitter? Warner had one heck of a season in 2019. Now, two seasons in a row, Warner has had over 100 tackles. So, there's not much to say he couldn't do it again. Warner is being taken as the 7th linebacker off the board. I know it may sound crazy, but I believe that's still a little early. I have a few guys you could grab instead of Warner who I'd be more comfortable with on my IDP fantasy squad in 2020.
Some of the best minds in IDP have Warner ranked as a top linebacker for 2020. At IDPGuys, our own IDP Dude has Warner ranked 9 for his linebackers. It's likely that Warner does finish 2020 in the top 10. He's proven he's capable of it! Here's the thing, Warner still doesn't do it for me. Like I've said before, not every great NFL defensive player is great for IDP. I think Warner is going to be one of those guys this season. Kwon Alexander was hurt last season. Also, another young linebacker talent has emerged in San Francisco. Dre Greenlaw showed us last season, when Alexander went down, that he can be clutch. Do any of you remember that amazing goal line stop against Seattle at the end of the regular season?
The 49ers linebackers are working on stripping the football today at camp. Kwon Alexander, Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw here pic.twitter.com/KIZr1BxMus
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) August 18, 2020
Overview:
If there was a time for Fred Warner to prove he's legit, the 2020 NFL season would be it. He's been a force since his arrival in the NFL. The BYU product has definitely been consistent with his tackling. In 2019, we saw he was capable of producing some big plays as well. Assuming Alexander and Greenlaw are healthy for all 16 games, can Warner repeat the numbers we saw? I'm sure I will probably hurt some feelings by putting Warner on this list. I just find him to be a very "curious" player. We're drafting him as if we know we're going to get a top-10 season out of him. Something in my gut tells me he may take a step back this season. Just a couple reasons why I think he could be an IDP bust based off his ADP. Maybe I'll regret this take?
Who could you possibly draft instead of Fred Warner? Jaylon Smith(LB8), Devin Bush(LB12), Devin White(LB13), Shaq Thompson(LB15), and Zach Cunningham(LB16)
Las Vegas Raiders, LB, Cory Littleton's 2019 Statistics: 78 Solo, 56 Ast, 6 TFL, 3.5 Sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, and 9 PD.
I'm a huge fan of Cory Littleton. Now here's a guy who gives it his all, practically every down, when he's on the field. We've grown comfortable with the production he has given us. I've even drafted him multiple times this off-season. But, every time I've grabbed him, I waited longer than I would've last season. Why you might ask? Well, we all know by now that Littleton is no longer a member of the Los Angeles Rams. He signed a pretty sweet $36 million dollar contract with the Las Vegas Raiders. For me, it is still crazy to believe we have a football team in sin city. With his last season in Los Angeles, he racked up 134 total tackles. Two seasons now, Littleton has given us some beautiful IDP numbers and value.
He's currently the 10th linebacker being drafted. When you think about it, it isn't bad value, but, as we have seen multiple times now, just because a player has been productive in the past, it doesn't always mean it will carry over to the next season. Especially when said player is on a new team, in a new scheme, with another capable talent next to him. We have seen some tremendous linebacker duos in the NFL. Urlacher and Briggs obviously being one of my favorites. So, could Cory Littleton and Nick Kwiatkoski be the next big duo? I think its a definite possibility. Littleton will likely be the cover guy, while Kwiatkoski mans the middle and stops the run. This could mean we see Nick lead the Raiders in tackles for 2020!
Four forced fumbles, two INTs, nine pass breakups and 3.5 sacks in 2019.
The @Raiders are getting a BALLER in LB Cory Littleton. 😤 pic.twitter.com/pIzmUUUUqP
— NFL (@NFL) March 20, 2020
Overview:
I don't consider it to be the point of this series to talk you out of drafting your guy. If Cory Littleton is a player you want on your team, go get him. I've grabbed him across a few leagues. As I dug a little more into the news this off-season though, I started to temper my expectations. I honestly believe Nick Kwiatkoski poses a threat to Littleton's IDP value. I still believe Littleton is a top-15 option at linebacker. But, will he continue to be a LB1 option for your team? In my opinion, he could become another possible IDP bust based off ADP. I think Kwiatkoski leads the Raiders in tackles for 2020.
Who could you possibly draft instead of Cory Littleton? Nick Kwiatkoski(LB42), TJ Watt(LB23), Jayon Brown(LB19), Lavonte David(LB17), and Micah Kiser(LB53)
