• Pumpkin Not Porsche: IDP Duds Who Fizzled Out

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    Which high-performing players are poised to underwhelm this year? Let's talk about those IDP carriages turning back into a pumpkin!

    You didn't think I could go a month without another Disney reference, did you? This one won't be as over the top as the last one, but it still scratches my itch! For this article, we go to the movie universe of Cinderella, where pumpkins can turn into carriages for some time before unceremoniously turning back into a pumpkin. As this applies to pumpkins, the same can be said about IDP fantasy players!

    In the fantasy world, we spend a lot of time identifying players we think are in for a breakout season. As important as that exercise is, you also need to identify players who are poised to fall off the fantasy cliff. This article aims to provide you with a few players I think fit that description. These IDP Porsches are set to return to their previous pumpkin form.

    The challenge with identifying these players is that many of them still look like "carriages." Unlike in Cinderella when we knew when the magic would fizzle out, we can only speculate when the transformation will happen. Thankfully, when you know what to look for, you can see signs of the mutation before it has fully occurred. Let's get into the players I think are in for such a downturn!

    IDP duds, aka Carriages that turn back into a Pumpkin:

    Foyesade Oluokun, LB, Jacksonville Jaguars

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    Much like Cinderella, Oluokun showed up last season and shocked everyone in attendance. He ended the year with 192 combined tackles, 2 safeties, and 3 interceptions for the Falcons. According to FantasyPros, this was good enough for him to be the second-highest scoring IDP player in the league. Welcome to the ball indeed!

    So what was in the goodie bag Oluokun left the party with? Only a three-year, 45 million dollar contract with a new team: the Jaguars! So why am I down on him this year? While the money indicates that he will get opportunities to produce, I do not think he will sustain the production he had last year. FantasyPros currently has him as their sixth-ranked linebacker for dynasty leagues.

    I am concerned with the change of team impacting his production. The Jaguars drafted three stud linebackers in Travon Walker, Devin Lloyd, and Chad Muma in this year's draft. The team is in rebuilding mode and needs to establish a young core on defense. Sure, Oluokun will start the early games, but what happens when the season is lost and the Jaguars need to see what they have in their young guys?

    He will still be a fantasy asset, just not one that should be being drafted as high as he is. I'm going to pass on the new Jaguar.

    Kyzir White, LB/S, Philidelphia Eagles

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    White is in a very similar spot to Oluokun. Last year, he exploded onto the scene as the 12th highest scoring linebacker. He had 144 combined tackles, 7 tackles for a loss, and 2 interceptions — quite the well-rounded year. This, like Oluokun, helped bring him to a new team: the Philidelphia Eagles. While this is an excellent move for the Eagles, it will limit White's ability to put up fantasy points.

    There are rumors that the Eagles are rethinking their defensive scheme. Any time there is a change of this magnitude, there is less certainty for predicting fantasy success. At the same time, the Eagles drafted Nakobe Dean in this year's draft and signed Haason Reddick. More talent at the linebacker spot is ideal for the Eagles, but it limits the fantasy upside for any of the linebackers on the team.

    While I'm excited to see how the Eagles will use the versatile White, I will let another fantasy manager take the risk of drafting him.

    Logan Ryan, CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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    Are you seeing a pattern for the players I see coming back down to Earth? There is an adage in IDP: a change of scenery or coaching staff is not great for predicting fantasy value.

    Last year, Ryan had 117 combined tackles, 2 forced fumbles, and 3 quarterback hits. This was good enough for him to finish as the 10th defensive back in 2021. Ryan's numbers have been consistent over his career, so why am I low on him?

    For me, it's all about where he decided to sign in free agency — the Buccaneers have impressive depth all across their defense. Ryan projects to be a versatile piece of the said defense, filling in at various positions when needed. This is great for the Bucs' defense, but not great for IDP. When looking at DBs, we want to know that we can count on them for points. I do not think we will get that with Ryan.

    The other factor working against Ryan is father time. Now on the other side of 30, you always have to wonder about time catching up to him. He is a fierce competitor, one that you want on your favorite NFL team. I just don't see Ryan living up to the consistent IDP value he's had over the last few years.

    Emmanuel Ogbah, EDGE, Miami Dolphins

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    Ogbah has been nothing but consistent in his tenure with the Dolphins. His two years have been almost exactly the same productivity-wise. Ogbah had nine sacks in each campaign and around 42 combined tackles. Seriously, the consistency is commendable! This is typically something you look for in an IDP player, so how did he end up in this article?

    The answer is simple: Jaelan Phillips and Melvin Ingram. As you can see in the stats, Ogbah relies on sacks to be relevant in fantasy. Phillips flashed brilliance in his rookie campaign, and he only played slightly over 50% of defensive snaps. Ingram is another pass rusher who is primed to eat into Ogbah's sack total. It's hard to score when other players are cutting into your niche!

    Another big thing to note is the coaching staff change in Miami. The Dolphins are out with Brian Flores and in with Mike McDaniel. Ogbah has been around the league long enough to prove to the new staff he should play, but I think they will prioritize the players they bring into the organization and the promising youth over those veterans. I believe this is the year that Ogbah turns back into a pumpkin!

    Robert Quinn, Edge, Chicago Bears

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    Robert Quinn has been one of the best edge rushers of my lifetime. Last year, he defied his age and racked up 18.5 sacks and 22 quarterback hits. This landed him as the 15th highest scoring linebacker in fantasy. Quinn is a three-time pro-bowler, yet I see his fantasy relevance cooling off a bit this year.

    My concerns with his production moving forward start with the departure of Akiem Hicks. Taking a look at Quinn's PFF grades, we see that he excels at getting after the quarterback. My concern this year is that he will not have the benefit of Akiem Hicks taking up the offensive line's attention to help him get there. When teams can devote resources to stop you, you're going to have a bad time.

    Then there is always the concern of age. It's hard to predict when a player will start to show his age, but Quinn will be 32 years old this upcoming season. Taking a look at other edge rushers' sack totals at 32, you will see that only the best of the best have been productive. Sure, Quinn can defy the odds and repeat his last year's performance, but I think it's more likely he doesn't. Draft accordingly!

    Thank you for reading my article on IDP duds, aka IDP carriages turning back into pumpkins! Be sure to reach out and let me know what you think I got right and what I got wrong! You can find all my work on my IDP Guys Author page. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @mrecord21 and follow @IDPGuys to keep up to date with all the latest fantasy news!

    Matt Record

    I got started in Fantasy Football over 15 years ago and have never looked back! I'm just a regular guy who loves to analyze data and watch and talk about sports. Outside of all things fantasy, I enjoy playing disc golf, playing board games, and enjoying a nice hazy IPA. I can't wait to share with you all my thoughts on Fantasy Football!
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