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  • Redraft ADP: IDP Guys Talk Third Year Tantalizers

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    Redraft season is just around the corner. Some of the staff at IDP Guys came together to discuss one offensive and defensive player, and provide diverse opinions on each.


    Redraft season is looming in the distance and there is nothing better than coming in and drafting a player that three other managers were hoping to draft “after the turn.” Some people believe that the secret to cracking the code to drafting the perfect redraft team comes from knowing solid redraft ADP information and what to do with it.

    The IDP Guys have a Discord chat where we often discuss players and their situations. We would like to give you a peek behind the curtain at the staff’s thought process in assessing a player’s current redraft ADP and give our thoughts on both an offensive and defensive player in this mini-series.

    Today, the writers at IDPGuys.org has agreed to dive into a pair of players on opposing sides of the ball who are both entering their third season. The redraft ADP provided is from ftnfantasy.com, all stats are from PFF.com and all contract information is via Sportrac.com.

     Gabriel Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills

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    Year PPR Yearly Finish via FantasyPros Games played FPPG AVG. Targets/ CMP% 
    2021 58th 15 8.4 74 / 60.8
    2020 56th 16 8.6 71 / 54.9

    Contract Details

    Gabriel Davis is entering the third year of his rookie deal and is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in 2024. He is 23 years old and is the 37th highest-paid player on the Buffalo Bills’ roster.

    Redraft ADP

    Ftnfantasy.com currently provides an ADP of 127.00 for Gabriel Davis. Players around the same average draft position include names such as Jamal Adams, Christian Watson, and Patrick Queen.

    Past Performance

    The Buffalo Bills drafted Gabriel Davis in the fourth round of the 2020 NFL draft. He outperformed his expectations in 2020, finishing with seven touchdowns. Though his reception rate was below 60 percent,  the future seemed bright.

    In his second year in Buffalo, Davis was the fourth most targeted player and finished tied with Dawson Knox for first in touchdowns with 11. That is one more than the Bills WR1 Stefon Diggs, who did, however, finish 2020 with 501 more receiving yards than Davis did.

    IDP Guys Staff Thoughts

    DynastySanta – Content Manager

    A guy that really splits the room, Gabriel Davis will be this year’s ultimate fantasy told-you-so. Half of the people will readily pull receipts whether he meets or exceeds lofty expectations or totally busts. I’m here to be the pragmatic Buzz Killington. I don’t have a supremely “hot take” one way or another. 

    I certainly think Davis is an attractive fantasy asset for 2022, and the Buffalo Bills’ offense isn’t slowing down anytime soon. We’ve seen his ceiling from the playoff game against the Chiefs. If teams do decide to hone in on Stefon Diggs, then Davis could reap all of the benefits.

    We’re writing about redraft ADP here at the beginning of July. So, if we look back in the next 30-45 days, many of our assumptions might look silly. If you happen to be drafting for redraft now, I think Davis is still acquirable and worth his cost at ADP. However, considering the overwhelming casual fantasy football population hasn’t even woken up yet, I expect that to change. Drastically.

    THAT is when you’ll find me totally OUT on Davis at cost. I envision the savviest of your home league mates who decide to grab a magazine written in May, or did some half-assed Google searches, to reach for him.

    I guess my boldest take is that I could see someone reaching for Davis as high as the late fourth or fifth round come this year’s drafts. At that price, I’m holding down the puke in my mouth as I type this.

    Reaching for Davis as your WR2 is a recipe for disaster. You’ll be passing on a ton of rookie WR talent, all with FIRST round draft capital. Davis is a fourth-rounder who is a total boom/bust type of player. You’ll find yourself frustrated when he’s averaging 8.7 fantasy points per game over the first few weeks. So you’ll bench Davis. Then he’ll explode for a 100-yard / twoTD game on your bench. 

    Now, if Davis is your WR3 or FLEX player, I can easily stomach that. He may be worth a reach in a best ball league, but don’t fall into the trap in your standard redraft home leagues. Let someone else be the Howie Roseman, AKA the smartest guy in the room.

    Davis can be their version of Howie’s Jalen Reagor, while you scoop up the rookie Justin Jeffersons, such as Drake London, Treylon Burks, or Garrett Wilson in the same range.

    MattRecord – Writer

    Ah, Gabriel Davis. Twitter’s WR fantasy darling! If you were to ask the internet who the biggest sleeper is this year, it’s him. So why the hype? I think it comes down to two things: 1. Cole Beasley’s departure from the Bills, and 2. Davis’ absolutely SCORCHING playoff run. But are these things sustainable?

    Let’s talk about point one first. Beasley’s departure leaves 82 receptions up for grabs in the pass-happy Bills offense. Davis will certainly see his fair share of new opportunities, but I worry that the new Bills’ weapons will take up more than we think. With the additions of Jamison Crowder, Khalil Shaker, and James Cook, Buffalo has many mouths to feed. 

    Point two — Davis went off for 10 catches and five touchdowns in the Bills’ two playoff games. At that pace, he’d project to have 85 catches and 42 touchdowns over a 17-game season. It’s not rocket science to project that Davis will not touch those TD numbers, but I do think he can get close to 60 catches this year. Serviceable, but not a league winner.

    So, where does this leave us? I’m seeing Davis as wide receiver 27 in redraft drafts right now. This is too high for me, as I like the upside for other players around him more (Elijah Moore and DeVonta Smith, to name a few). Obviously, there are things to like about Davis, but at his current ADP, I do not think I’ll have many shares of him this upcoming year.

    DynastyBison – Writer/Ranker

    Gabriel Davis — one of Twitter’s most heated debates. If I am being honest, I came into this fully expecting to be team fade Davis. I think this stems from the “Twitterverse” and folks seeing him go in the fifth round. At that cost, I am ABSOLUTELY fading.

    In 2022, Davis has the chance to step up. Emmanual Sanders and Cole Beasley were no longer on the team, vacating 184 targets. If Davis were definitely sliding to the slot, I would probably be higher on him. However, the Bills filled this vacancy with Jamison Crowder, another slot specialist.

    Also worth noting, the Bills attempted to bring in pass-catching back J.D. McKissic, who commanded the fourth highest running back target share in 2021. Clearly, they had a role designated for him, but he backed out of their deal and went back to Washington. The Bills then pivoted and drafted James Cook, who is eerily similar in size and skillset to McKissic.

    This tells me getting running backs more involved in the passing game is a pretty clear priority moving forward, thus likely eating some targets. To a lesser degree of concern, the Bills also drafted a WR in the draft, moving up in the fifth round to select Khalil Shakir. I don’t expect Shakir to draw a large share, but he will garner at least some of that work.

    Today, looking at the FTNfantasy.com redraft ADP (IDP included), we find Gabriel Davis at 127 overall. In other words, that is the mid-10th round in a 12-team league with the surrounding WRs being rookies Christian Watson and George Pickens

    At this ADP, I can get behind selecting Davis as a WR4 as a flex option/bye week fill-in. It feels just right. Single-digit rounds are a no-go for me, however.

    Jase Abbey – Writer

    I understand the hype surrounding Davis. He’s a young, ascending wideout in a potent offense led by arguably the best quarterback in the game. The 112 vacated targets created by Cole Beasley’s departure help to make a compelling case for those championing Davis as the next big thing. 

    I came here ready to explain how I find myself slightly lower than consensus on the young Bills receiver because someone always takes him earlier than I do in redraft. I was prepared to share my concern that he may not maintain his TD rate in the future. However, his FantasyPros ADP of WR27 is not as high as I expected. There are few wideouts below Davis on that list that I would take above him in redraft.

    What does concern me about Davis is that I am a little higher on Jamison Crowder than his ADP of WR70. I believe he will eat into Beasley’s vacated targets more than some of Davis’ fantasy managers expect.

    We know Stefon Diggs is excellent at almost every route, and Crowder has earned a living on underneath routes, making me question whether Davis can develop beyond being an effective deep threat.

    The more salient question might be, does Davis need more success on other routes to justify his ADP in redraft? Many receivers have made a decent living as deep threats and been valuable fantasy assets. 

    Mase Riney – Writer

    Davis averaged 17.6 yards per reception in 2021, tied for second among all WRs with 46 or more targets. He finished sixth in the NFL in the touchdown category last season, totaling 11 touchdowns. The one thing that is concerning with Davis is that he was fourth on his own team in targets last season.

    With the departure of Cole Beasley, Buffalo’s passing attack essentially has over 100 targets to allocate to players. The Bills added Khalil Shakir in the 2022 draft, and Jamison Crowder via free agency to their wide receiver room this season, so I am interested to see who emerges as the WR2.

    In the last three seasons, the WR1 finished with 483 targets (26% target share), the WR2 had 339 targets (18.4% target share), and the WR3 has 188 targets (10.2% target share). I am into Gabriel Davis at his current redraft ADP of 127 if I can slot him as my WR3/Flex.

    I feel he may have some touchdown regression, and Davis is far too inconsistent statistically to be slotted as a WR2. When I began this article, I can honestly say I was not feeling the rise of his ADP. The more I look at his situation, the more I wish I had him rostered in more leagues.

    Chase Young, DE, Washington Commanders

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    Year PPR Yearly Finish via FantasyPros Games played FPPG AVG. Snaps (RDEF, PRSH) /Pressures
    2021 136th 10 5.5 477 / RDEF: 34.5% PRSH: 62.2% / 24
    2020 5th 15 10.2 834 / RDEF: 36% PRSH: 59.7% / 42

    Contract Details

    Chase Young is entering the third year of his rookie deal and is currently scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in 2025. He is 23 years old and is the seventh highest-paid player on the Washington Commanders roster.

    Redraft ADP

    Ftnfantasy.com currently provides an ADP of 119.00 for the Washington Commanders’ defensive end, Chase Young. Players around the same average draft position include Budda Baker, James Cook, and Joey Bosa.

    Past Performance

    The former Ohio State Buckeye defensive end was drafted second overall by the Washington Commanders in the 2020 NFL draft. Young finished his 2020 campaign 25th in the NFL in tackles, and third on his team in total pressures(42). He was also ranked 26th in total defensive lineman snaps.

    Last season was a major disappointment for Young, as it finished early in Week 10 with a torn ACL in his right knee. His stats include 24 pressures, 5 quarterback hits, and 18 solo tackles in nine games.

    IDP Guys Staff Thoughts

    DynastySanta – Content Manager

    So my IDP advice usually hinges on knowing a few key pieces of information about one’s league. As the strategies can vary widely depending on scoring (sacks most importantly and do the points stack with TFLs + QB hits), number of IDPs started, and total roster sizes. It seems more likely that Chase Young will start the year on IR. Has he become a value? Yes, even in redraft leagues! 

    Listen, Young is a massive talent. That is undeniable. His rookie year was incredibly impressive based on expectations of the number two overall pick. So, despite a lackluster sophomore campaign that ended prematurely due to injury, that talent is still there.

    Honestly, I think the best-case scenario is that Young does, in fact, start the year on IR. Most people won’t want to touch him. And that’s where you can swoop in and scoop up an incredibly talented player at an incredible value. I think I’d start considering him in double-digit rounds, as early as the 10th.

    Then, you stash him on your IR for when he returns (and he will) and just pad your DL position with some extra depth to get you through the beginning of the season. If he returns and isn’t giving you production, you cut him and move on! Simple as that!

    MattRecord – Writer

    Chase Young is an interesting one to project. By now, you’ve heard that he’s injured and might miss time to start the year. This is not ideal for a player people are drafting as the 20th defensive lineman in drafts, as it will be hard for him to hit DL2 numbers while missing time. Young should be a non-starter for me in redraft leagues at that ADP.

    One format I do really like Young in is best ball. Once he is back, I fully expect him to look more like “rookie year” Chase Young than last year’s version. He’ll be on the field, getting at opposing quarterbacks, and winning you a few of your best ball weeks. The issue is that Young won’t rack up enough total points by the end of the year for me to like him in redraft.

    Things might change if Young’s ADP starts to fall due to his injury news. But at this time, I will let someone else buy the Young lottery ticket.

    DynastyBison – Writer/Ranker

    Chase Young is a massively talented individual. A highly touted prospect, stellar draft capital, and an equally strong rookie season had Young floating high among IDP ranks. Fast forward a year. Young started his sophomore campaign off slowly and caught a season-ending injury.

    This combination tanked his value which in turn is making him more of a value. However, his redraft ADP has not slipped quite enough for my taste. According to FTN’s IDP ADP, Chase Young is sitting at 119 overall or the very end of the ninth round in 12 team drafts. 

    The updates I have been reading say Young may not be ready for the start of the season, and we know he is coming off an ACL injury. ACLs are notorious for a slow first-year post-injury, so even around round 10, I will let someone else draft Chase Young.

    At this point in the draft, I would much rather pivot to a different position and target DEs I am more confident in later rounds, like Maxx Crosby (149.3) and Brian Burns (137.5). If Young were to slip to the 15th round of the draft or later, I may consider stashing him in a league with IR spots.

    Jase Abbey – Writer

    All the pieces were in place for Young to have an impressive sophomore season. Hailed as a generational talent, and with a promising rookie season under his belt, the stage was set for him to kick on and become the dominant player he was seemingly fated to be. 

    The Commanders gave Young every opportunity to succeed. After his last full game in week eight, the former Buckeyes’ star led all edge rushers in the league with 289 pass-rush snaps. So, Young had talent AND opportunity. What more could fantasy managers want? 

    Sadly, the answer was production. The fireworks we expected were more of a feeble fizzle. Before Young’s injury, despite the massive snap volume, he ranked a lowly 26th at the position in pressures. He flashed glimpses of the player fantasy managers had sunk so much draft capital into, notably against the Saints in week five. Sadly, that performance proved to be the exception rather than the rule. 

    I still believe in his talent and wouldn’t be surprised if he proved himself worthy of future top 10 edge rusher consideration. It’s no certainty to happen in 2022, and he needs to restore our confidence to justify his current ADP, so why take the gamble in redraft formats? In summary, I still like him, but not at his current ADP.

    Mase Riney – Writer

    I am very out on Chase Young in redraft formats. Even if his ADP fell a bit to a DL2, I would think twice about drafting him. Unfortunately, Young may not be 100% going into the season, therefore he has the potential to miss some games. When coming back from an injury such as this, I would think that Young would begin his games on a snap count.

    This is not good news for your fantasy team. If I am spending the draft capital worthy of the DL4, I would prefer a player with much more opportunity to score points.

    In a recent guest podcast appearance on FantasyVibes, I spoke about how I prefer Young’s teammate and fellow defensive end Montez Sweat at his current ADP as opposed to Young. While I do believe that Young is a phenomenal football player, I would just rather roll with another player that accumulates more pressure and hits on the quarterback.

    In Young’s rookie season in 2020, he finished third in pressures with 42 total, placing him just outside the top 50 NFL defensive linemen. 

    Three Commanders finished 2020 with six sacks — Jonathan Allen, Montez Sweat, and Chase Young. If Chase starts falling in ADP by the beginning of the season, and you have a deep roster, I wouldn’t be opposed to saving a spot for Chase Young. To draft him as a top-five defensive lineman in redraft formats is not the wisest decision you could make in the fantasy realm.


    A thousand thank you for reading my article on Redraft IDP Gems With High ADP! If you enjoyed it, read all my work on my IDP Guys author page and follow me on Twitter @Caliking49er17.

    Mason Riney

    Proud father, Army veteran, and lover of all that is football. IDP is my main focus, but I also enjoy scouting collegiate players and rank on Fantasypros.

    Discussion

    1. […] An awesome collaborative article about Chase Young here. […]

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