Mase’s June ADP Check-up: Part 2

Dynasty fantasy football ADP is the key to a solid startup. Let's assess the IDP Guys' consensus June ADP, and get some thoughts on a few players who could win or lose your league.

The June 2022 Defensive Dynasty ADP is up at IDPGuys.com and the season is so close some of us can taste it. Every season, players rise and fall in average draft position (ADP) in an attempt by managers to construct the next season's championship roster. 

What players are on the rise, what players are falling off the face of the fantasy spectrum, and for what reasons? All salary cap information is via overthecap.com, and all stats are from PFF. For complete rankings and all ADP, be sure to visit IDPGuys.com.

Above is a graph (provided by @engineerchange) that shows the rise and decline of each player's average draft position since January. Now, I will look at each player, discuss their ADP, and provide some context of their situations in the future in fantasy. Let's ride.

Harold Landry, Linebacker, Tennessee Titans

Sleeper: LB/DL • My Football League: DE 

Contract Details

Harold Landry was selected 42nd overall in the 2018 NFL draft. He is in the first year of his second contract with the Tennessee Titans. Landry’s newly signed contract locks him in Tennessee until 2026. His contract is also responsible for just over two percent of the Titans’ cap space this season.

The length of Landry’s contract is terrific news for dynasty managers, as it provides you with stability at the DL position for years to come.

ADP

The IDP Guys, June 2022 Defensive Dynasty ADP for Harold Landry is 144.5. This ADP slots him as the LB25. Players around the same ADP as Harold Landry include Rashan Gary, Kevin Byard, and Sam Hubbard. Landry saw his most significant jump in ADP this off-season between January and March. At the end of last season, he had the worst ADP of any player highlighted in this article.

Past

In the four years Landry played in the NFL, his last season, was statistically his best. In 2021, he totaled just under 1,000 snaps (the second-highest of his career), 63 combined tackles, 64 pressures, and in coverage, Landry was targeted 18 times allowing a 94% completion percentage. The biggest thing that stood out to me was his missed tackle percentage in 2020 was 17.3%, which he lowered to 6% in 2021.

Present

In 2022, Landry is primed to be the feature OLB of the Tennessee defense, with Bud Dupree at the other OLB position. The Titans added two defensive backs and a linebacker to the defense via the draft. Roger McCreary is a corner who was drafted in the second round of the NFL draft and is best known for limiting space for wideouts in an aggressive manner.

Theo Jackson is a well-sized defensive back who can play at safety and corner. Chance Campbell is a big-bodied ILB who was a one-year starter and must polish up his skillset before becoming a factor on Sundays. The players added to the Tennessee roster by way of the NFL draft seem to not affect Landry’s role on this defense this season.

Who would you rather draft in a conjoined dynasty startup?

— Mase (@caliking49er17) June 17, 2022

Trade For, Trade Away, or Cut

All signs seem to indicate Harold Landry being a trade target in dynasty formats. He will receive around 1,000 snaps this season, has a new contract, and is dual eligible as a defensive lineman and a linebacker on some fantasy apps. Landry is a player I would love to have slotted as my DL2 or even a nice flex if possible.

I would be reluctant to begin the season with him as the featured linebacker of my fantasy team. Better act quickly — the cost of admission via trade could be going up soon, as the IDP community seems to be getting higher on Landry as the season approaches. If you feel like moving him in a rebuild, do not cut him. Seek a trade for some lower to mid-round future draft capital.

Harrison Smith, Safety, Minnesota Vikings

Sleeper: DB • My Football League: S

Contract Details

Harrison Smith was drafted at the back end of the first round of the 2012 draft. He is in the second year of his second contract extension with the Vikings. Smith’s cap hit is at 3.5% this season and goes up to 8.5% next season. The jump in cap, among other variables discussed below, makes the future beyond this year murky for Smith in dynasty formats.

ADP

The IDP Guys June 2022 Defensive Dynasty ADP for Harrison Smith is 297. This ADP slots Smith as the DB36. Players around the same ADP as him include Troy Andersen, Kamren Curl, and J.J. Watt. The decline in ADP for Smith has resembled that of a falling roller coaster in recent months. More than likely due to his age and the Vikings’ recent first-round defensive draft selections.

Past

Last season, Harrison Smith surpassed 1,000 snaps in a season for the first time in his career. Usually a solid tackler at his position, he has eight seasons with over 80 combined tackles and a career missed tackle percentage that is just under 10%.

Last season, Smith had the least amount of interceptions of his career, with one lone interception and only eight pressures on the quarterback. Throughout his career, Smith has seen anywhere from 20 to 40 targets a season.

Present

Since 2017, the Vikings’ defense has seen the highest individual snap count each season come from a safety. In the 2022 NFL draft, the newly appointed general manager of the Vikings, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, deemed it fit to draft former Georgia safety Lewis Cine at the back end of the first round. Cine should learn a lot from Harrison Smith in his rookie season as his aggressive play style develops in the NFL.

I see Cine filling the role, much like former safety Xavier Woods did last season. Perhaps a little more interchangeability between the two players but of Cine and Smith, I still believe Smith is a strong player to have rostered this season given his current ADP.

Trade For, Trade Away, or Cut,

I understand the fall of Harrison Smith’s ADP, but at this point, he becomes a bargain buy for any contending dynasty team. I am willing to send a late-round pick and a mid-level linebacker for him if I feel like I need a bandaid at the DB position.

If you have Smith rostered, you should hold until the wheels fall off the wagon, as I don’t feel he is finished as a fantasy asset just yet. Smith is a solid DB2/Flex option for this next year, but anything beyond a year has the potential to become a mystery.

Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, Cornerback, New York Jets

Sleeper: DB • My Football League: CB

Contract Details

Gardner’s NFL journey will begin to unfold this season. Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner was drafted as the fourth player overall in the 2022 NFL draft. He is in the first year of his four-year contract with the Jets and will be twenty-two this season. Gardner is scheduled to receive just under 3% of New York’s cap space this season.

ADP

The IDP Guys June 2022 Defensive Dynasty ADP for Ahmad Gardner is 209.5. This ADP places Gardner as the DB20. Players around the same ADP as Ahmad Gardner are Vonn Bell, Za’Darius Smith, and Jerome Baker. Due to Gardner being a rookie, we do not have much ADP data. However, he is ranked higher than names such as J.C. Jackson and Jordan Whitehead.

Which rookie will have the most impactful season for your fantasy roster this year?

— Mase (@caliking49er17) June 15, 2022

Past

Ahmad Gardner is a tall and lengthy corner who could be the most aggressive of the 2022 NFL corner draft class. He did not allow a single passing touchdown over his three-year collegiate career and had two sacks in his final season at Cincinnati.

Gardner intercepted the ball three times in each of his seasons in college and always finished each season with the same amount of pass breakups or more than his numbers for interceptions.

Present

Gardner was drafted as the new-age shutdown corner in New York head coach Robert Saleh’s defense. Some corners have found fantasy relevance in the past as Trevon Diggs averaged 10.6 FPPG in twelve games as a rookie. Other Jets' defensive backs worth a look include both LaMarcus Joyner and Jordan Whitehead.

Trade For, Trade Away, or Cut?

Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner was the Jets’ first draft selection in this past year’s draft and perhaps that is some of the driving force behind his current ADP. I am currently not drafting him in any leagues other than those with a true position roster.

I would much rather have a safety or proven corner like a J.C. Jackson over Gardner if I had to, but I am not keen on rostering an unproven NFL corner as the DB2 of my roster. If you did draft him in your rookie draft, I would trade Gardner away immediately and get what you can for him as his ADP may not last.

The overall feeling toward Gardner in basic IDP formats could change in the coming months. There are far better options for your roster in basic IDP leagues.

Yannick Ngakoue, Defensive Line, Indianapolis Colts

Sleeper: DL • My Football League: DE

Contract Details

Ngakoue was drafted in the third round of the 2016 NFL draft. He has been a bit of a rolling stone throughout his NFL career, being on five teams in his six years in the league. After a recent off-season trade between Indianapolis and Las Vegas, Ngakoue has found himself a home in Indianapolis. He is essentially on a one-year deal with Indianapolis, so the future is uncertain for him.

ADP

The IDP Guys, 2022 June ADP for Defensive players for Yannick Ngakoue, is 195. This ADP slots him as the DL20. Players around the same ADP include Bradley Chubb, Denzel Perryman, and Kyle Dugger. Ngakoue’s ADP this off-season has been a two-sided tale. It stayed steady after the 2021 season was over and then began falling a bit once the trade to Indianapolis happened in March.

To no surprise, once the 2022 draft was complete, Ngakoue’s ADP skyrocketed back to what it is now.

Past

In each of Ngakoue’s six seasons, he has finished each season with eight or more sacks and pressures varying from the mid-40s to around 70, finishing with an average of 3.5 pressures a game in his solo season with Las Vegas. Ngakoue’s past two seasons have him around the front side of a DL3 with the possibility of being a solid option for your flex in heftier rostered leagues.

Present

The biggest question surrounding Ngakoue’s fantasy value at DL20 is whether he will get back to his 2019 DL1 numbers or continue the subtle decline into the fantasy void. The Colts' defensive rookie draft class consists of two defensive backs and a pair of interior defensive linemen who pose no threat to  Ngakuoe’s starting position.

Last season, Kwity Paye was the 42nd ranked NFL defensive end in pressures and second on his team to DeForest Buckner. The Colts knew they needed help on the outside of their defensive line, and Ngakoue provides precisely that.

Trade For, Trade Away, or Cut?

The most significant concern going forward is Ngakoue’s current contract situation and if the Colts will give him an extension as the season progresses. If you currently have Ngakoue rostered, I would advise that you hold him, as he could be on the verge of a breakout season.

The Colts' front seven is among the best in the AFC, and I would expect Yannick Ngakoue to be a decent part of the Colts' defensive success. His ADP could jump up a few spots before the season, so I feel now is the time to trade for Ngakoue in dynasty formats. Another player on the back end of their deal at a different position should get the deal done.

A thousand thank yous for reading Mase’s June ADP Check-up part 2. If you enjoyed it, read all my work on my IDP Guys author page and follow me on Twitter @Caliking49er17.