With the NFL Draft complete and rookies having their landing spots, let's begin preparing you for your Dynasty Rookie Drafts that are on the horizon.
It is NFL Dynasty Rookie Draft Season! All the speculation and mock drafts are behind us. The NFL draft is complete and it is time for Dynasty Fantasy Football GM's to prepare for their rookie drafts.
Building on my pre-draft rookie article, and to assist in your preparation for upcoming rookie drafts, I have updated my top 72 offensive and IDP rookies sorted by “tiers” as well as in order from #1-72. 72 is the magic number representing a 12-team dynasty league with a 6-round rookie draft. I've also provided a bonus "cornerback tier" beyond the 72.
Looking for Dynasty IDP Tier Rankings with the new rookies?
Given the many unique scoring systems, the following are assumed for these rankings:
• 1 QB Leagues
• 1-point PPR
• Non-TE premium
• 5 position IDP (DT, Edge, LB, CB, S)
• IDP scoring systems provide appropriate values for each of the 5 positions
• IDP’s provide relatively similar scoring values to offensive players
• Very deep rosters including taxi squads
In addition to the scoring system assumptions above, there were 5 key vectors considered in my rankings: 1) Talent; 2) Year 1 Opportunity; 3) Year 2+ Opportunity; 4) Draft Capital; and 5) Landing Spot/Overall Team Situation
Following are the tiered # 1 -72 rookies with a couple of bonus tiers as well (below #72):
Tier 1 - Studs
1. Marvin Harrison Jr – WR – Arizona
2. Malik Nabers – WR – New York Giants
3. Rome Odunze – WR - Chicago
4. Caleb Williams – QB - Chicago
5. Brian Thomas Jr. – WR – Jacksonville
6. Brock Bowers – TE – Las Vegas
7. Jonathon Brooks – RB – Carolina
8. Jayden Daniels – QB – Washington
Some like vanilla ice cream the most while some like chocolate and others prefer strawberry ice cream. They are all good flavors. If you prefer Nabers over Harrison, or Odunze over Nabers, then by all means, draft them as such.
I dropped Bowers to #6 as I don’t love the Raiders landing spot, particularly the current QB situation this year and then the potential for a rookie QB next year. As a result, I would rather draft Brian Thomas Jr. with Trevor Lawrence at the helm over Bowers. Brooks hasn’t reached age 21 yet.
Even though he is coming off an injury, with that youth and the talent of a 3-down back, I am all aboard the Brooks train as a top 8 selection. While there are some IDP’s I am fond of, unfortunately (even with enhanced scoring for each of the 5 positions), none of them fall into the Tier 1 Studs. There was a reason 14 offensive players were drafted before the first defensive player in the recently completed NFL draft.
Tier 2 – WR’s in the Right Situation and 2025 RB Starters
9. Ladd McConkey – WR – Los Angeles Chargers
10. Xavier Worthy – WR – Kansas City
11. Keon Coleman – WR – Buffalo
12. Ricky Pearsall – WR – San Francisco
13. Trey Benson – RB – Arizona
14. MarShawn Lloyd – RB – Green Bay
15. Jermaine Burton – WR – Cincinnati
Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Brock Purdy (and the Shanahan creativity), Joe Burrow – those are the 5 QB’s for my ranked WR’s in Tier 2. When we talk about situations and opportunity to be successful in the NFL and fantasy football, these WR’s have that early career opportunity.
McConkey’s competition for targets include the solid Josh Palmer and the struggler from year 1 Quentin Johnston; McConkey will have the chance to become a 70-90 catches per year monster though his size limits the touchdown upside to join the Tier 1 echelon.
Burton will step into the Tyler Boyd this year (apologies to those stashing Charlie Jones) and with enough growth steps into the Tee Higgins role in 2025. I do have some concerns on this list though.
When Andy Reid refers to Worthy as being similar to DeSean Jackson, I have flashes to weekly scoring inconsistencies (and the weeks I choose to play him he gets 2 catches for 28 yards, and when he is on my bench he goes off for 5 catches/95 yards/2 Touchdowns).
I think Coleman would be most effective as a big slot like Marques Colston or Michael Thomas. If they use him primarily on the outside as an X receiver, I have visions of Coleman having a DeVante Parker type of career.
Please do not expect much production from Pearsall in 2024. In 2025, at a minimum Jauan Jennings will most likely be gone, and potentially also either Aiyuk or Deebo (if I didn’t get to draft Pearsall, I am looking to trade for him in the middle of the 2024 season).
Benson and Lloyd should both get some run this year. Hopefully Benson can work on his elusiveness and Lloyd on his fumbling (and avoid injuries). Assuming that occurs, they both should be #1 backs in 2025 (Jacobs has a 1 year out in his contract, Dillon has a 1-year contract, and Conner is approaching age 30, not to mention his injury history).
Tier 3 – Top IDP LB’s and WR’s in Less than Ideal Situations
16. Edgerrin Cooper – LB – Green Bay
17. Payton Wilson – LB – Pittsburgh
18. Junior Colson – LB – Los Angeles Chargers
19. Roman Wilson – WR – Pittsburgh
20. Xavier Legette – WR – Carolina
21. Adonai Mitchell – WR - Indianapolis
The two main questions related to Cooper are intertwined: 1) will Cooper be wearing the green dot instead of Quay Walker; 2) will Cooper play the Mike or the Will if Green Bay shifts to a 4-3? My assumptions are yes and yes. Thus, I have E. Cooper as my #1 IDP.
I love the thought of Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson in the middle of that Steelers defense. However, if you draft P Wilson, just know that with his knee injury history that he might be only a 4-year player at best for your squad as opposed to a 6 to 8 year player.
I believe Colson starts as 3-down linebacker as well. I have him 3rd on my list of IDP’s simply because I have concerns about his longer-term success in pass coverage capabilities and thus Colson eventually becoming a 2-down LB.
There are three receivers in this tier that I like talent-wise but boy oh boy there are some reservations compared to the previous tier of WR’s.
Yes, the Steelers have had great success drafting non-first round receivers, but Roman Wilson has much to overcome: Russell Wilson and Justin Fields as his QB’s (i.e. certainly not in-his-prime Big Ben), the Steelers desire to run-heavy, and let us not forget Arthur Smith’s “over-creativity.”
I am not convinced that Adonai Mitchell becomes even the #2 WR in Indianapolis with Pittman and Downs on the depth chart already. He has the upside but will Anthony Richardson’s arm (and repaired shoulder) support all 3 WR’s.
Legette finally broke out in his last year of college and that makes me particularly nervous as a roughly 23-year old at the time is finally able to take advantage of 19 to 20 year olds to be successful. And will Legette receive more targets than Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen? And do we trust Bryce Young after last year? As a result, the 3 LB’s stack above the WR’s in this tier.
Tier 4 – Next Tier QB and Foreseeable Committee RBs
22. JJ McCarthy – QB – Minnesota
23. Malachi Corley – WR – New York Jets
24. Jaylen Wright – RB - Miami
25. Blake Corum – RB – Los Angeles Rams
As I noted in my pre-draft article, Jacob Robinson of The Athletic recently shared a study of QB’s selected in the Top 10 since 2011: 41% of those QB’s became a “major reach” or a “bust.” It gets worse if you exclude QB’s that were picked 1st overall. If a QB was picked #2-10 overall, they were a “major reach” or “bust” ~55% of the time.
Thus, statistics state that outside of Caleb Williams, 3 of the other 5 QB’s drafted in the first round this year will be a major reach or bust. I’ve already put Daniels in Tier 1 and feel comfortable with him. McCarthy is my other choice to not be a major reach or bust because of the coaching staff, the o-line, and the weapons he has immediately available with the Vikings.
Wright and Corum are in this slightly lower tier because they appear to also be in a platoon situation in 2025. Wright will have Achane to contend with (and possibly Mostert) again in 2025, as will Corum with Kyren Williams.
Corley will probably max out as a #3 WR with the Jets but this is the range of draft value for him. There is potential upside if they truly use him similar to Deebo with both receiving volume as well as carries out of the backfield or in motion.
Tier 5 – The Patriots conundrum
26. Drake Maye – QB – New England
27. Ja’Lynn Polk – WR – New England
28. Javon Baker – WR – New England
Yeesh is the technical term to describe the Patriots since the end of last year. Remember all that money their new head coach Jerrod Mayo said they were going to spend in free agency. Well, that didn’t happen. They didn’t repair the O-line, they have a bunch of middling #3 and #4 WRs. I do like Polk and he will be given the opportunities but they probably over-drafted him with early Round 2 capital.
Are we sure that Belichick left the building?
For Maye’s sake, I certainly hope he holds the clipboard all year long, learns from Brissett, and that the Patriots address the o-line and skill positions appropriate next off-season to give him a fighting chance to succeed.
I do think Baker has potential but he will need development. And for those that thought I might mention Jaheim Bell in this Pats section as a sleeper TE, well, that’s not happening here or anywhere in the Top 72.
Tier 6 – The top DL and QB’s #5 & #6
29. Laiatu Latu – Edge – Indianapolis
30. Dallas Turner – Edge – Minnesota
31. Jared Verse – Edge – Los Angeles Rams
32. Byron Murphy Jr – DT – Seattle
33. Jer’Zhan (Johnny) Newton – DT – Washington
34. Michael Penix Jr – QB – Atlanta
35. Bo Nix – QB – Denver
The top tier of the DL IDP’s is very strong in potential. Patience will need to be exercised.
Latu joins an Indianapolis squad that regularly rotated their DE’s. The starters roughly played ~55% of the snaps and the backups were at the other ~45%. If those rotations to keep DE’s fresh continues to play out, Latu could be limited in his upside opportunities. But make no mistake, Latu currently has the best pass rush arsenal of any of the rookies.
Turner has great speed, length, and bend around the edge. His challenge is that he is “light in the britches.” I am glad that he is going to a 3-4 system with the Vikings but it may take him a year or two to gain some strength to not only set the edge but hold it and thus garner more playing time. Murphy Jr. and Newton both offer great penetration skills to provide sacks and tackles for losses.
I cannot see drafting Penix any higher than this Tier in a 1-QB league particularly when (unless an injury occurs to Cousins), he will sit on the bench at least 2 years. Will Pitts and London still be around at that point? Will the O-Line be as strong as it is now? I’ll pass (see what I did there).
Related to Nix, I am a Sean Payton fan. He is a great offensive mastermind. I’m just not buying into the Nix 77% completion rate driven by so many passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. Nix will make a lot of money in the league, but mostly as a serviceable backup QB. My Vegas bet would be that Penix and Nix ultimately fall into the “major reach” or “bust” categories.
Tier 7 – Exercise Patience
36. Jalen McMillian – WR – Tampa Bay
37. Troy Franklin – WR – Denver
38. Isaac Guerendo – RB – San Francisco
39. Tez Walker – WR – Baltimore
40. Malik Washington – WR – Miami
41. Ja’Tavion Sanders – TE – Carolina
42. Theo Johnson – TE – New York Giants
43. Ben Sinnott – TE – Washington
44. Spencer Rattler – QB – New Orleans
This list includes players that may need time to further develop or will need to wait longer for an opportunity.
McMillian though is at the top of this list as he could battle Trey Palmer for the #3 WR role on the Bucs. Otherwise, he will be sitting behind Evans and Godwin for a while.
Franklin needs to go to Wendy’s and find out “where’s the beef.” He needs to build up hists rength and continue to improve his routes. More opportunities will exist for him down the line in Denver.
Guerendo can learn behind CMC and could eventually surpass Mitchell as the #2 back (which isn’t a ton of value as long as CMC is rolling so that is why he isn’t in the same tier with Corum and Wright).
Prior to LaPorta and Kincaid this past year, past studies have shown that it takes TE’s about 3 years/roughly age 25 to begin peaking. I don’t see LaPorta and Kincaid 1st years being replicated by Sanders and Johnson particularly given the Panthers and Giants expected passing games. However, at this point in your rookie drafts, they might be worth stashing for down the road value.
Tier 8 – Next Tier of IDPs
45. Maason Smith – DT – Jacksonville
46. Darius Robinson – DT or Edge – Arizona
47. Marshawn Kneeland – Edge – Dallas
48. Cooper DeJean – CB or S – Detroit
49. Tyler Nubin – S – New York Giants
50. Cole Bishop – S – Buffalo
51. Jaden Hicks – S – Kansas City
Maason Smith has incredible size and athletic ability. Unfortunately, he suffered injuries in college and went through 6 D-Line coaches in 3 years in college. With the right coaching, he has a chance to be special.
If you are looking more for a floor player and not as high of a ceiling player than what M Smith offers, then Robinson is your man. I would like to have seen more production earlier in his career than his peak in his 5th year of college.
Time to provide some Safety-love. While some profess that you can find Safeties on waivers easily, and this is true, a real stud safety can really enhance your fantasy football team.
From a cheat-code perspective, if DeJean is designated as a CB but plays more of a Safety or Slot CB role, he could have tremendous value for your team.
Nubin appears to be taking over the McKinney role with the Giants which was very fantasy-valuable. Hicks surprisingly fell into the 4th round and ended up in a crowded Safety room in Kansas City which knocks down his value in the short term; he is also someone I would love to stash.
Tier 9 – The Back-up RB’s
52. Ray Davis – RB – Buffalo
53. Tyrone Tracy Jr RB – New York Giants
54. Audric Estime – RB – Denver
55. Bucky Irving – RB – Tampa Bay
56. Braelon Allen – RB – New York Jets
57. Will Shipley – RB – Philadelphia
58. Dylan Laube – RB – Las Vegas
59. Kimani Vidal – RB – Los Angeles Chargers
NFL teams tell you what they are thinking usually not by what they are saying but what they actually do. The NFL teams told us that they don’t think this is a very good running back class by not drafting any of these tier players prior to the late 4th round (and only 1 RB was drafted in Round 2 & 3 RB's in Round 3).
Some of these players will be nice backups. Some of them will be 3rd down passing backs. Some will be early down bruisers. However, the odds are very low that any of them will have multi-year sustained fantasy football success. You might get a few successful games out of some of them as injury backfills. You may even get lucky to get a full good year out of 1 or 2 of them. However, the NFL teams are telling us that is a low probability. If you do get a good year out of them, trade them before they are replaced in the next offseason.
Ray Davis is my favorite on this list but he is already over 25 years of age.
Tier 10 – The WR and TE “Take a Shot in the Dark”
60. Cade Stover – TE – Houston
61. Erick All – TE – Cincinnati
62. Brenden Rice – WR – Los Angeles Chargers
63. Luke McCaffrey – WR – Washington
64. Jared Wiley – TE – Kansas City
We are back to the ice cream analogy. If you are looking for a WR or TE to stash on a taxi squad this late in the draft, pick your favorite flavor from above. Some of these TE’s could end up making a splash particularly if you look at that 3 to 4 year horizon.
Chances are whoever drafts them will lose patience and drop them on waivers at some point and then you can scoop them up at some point down the road.
Tier 11 – The Final IDPs to consider stashing
65. Cedric Gray – LB - Tennessee
66. Braden Fiske – DT – Los Angeles Rams
67. Adisa Isaac – Edge – Baltimore
68. Chop Robinson – Edge – Miami
69. Chris Braswell – Edge – Tampa Bay
70. Michael Hall Jr – DT – Cleveland
71. Trevin Wallace – LB – Carolina
72. Kamren Kinchens – S – Los Angeles Rams
In this final tier, you will find various upside IDP’s.
Gray has a chance to start next to Murray in Tennessee; at the same time, Tennessee might sign another veteran and Gray becomes primarily a special teams stalwart.
Fiske did an amazing job in the pre-draft process but he certainly won’t be the next Aaron Donald.
College productivity is something that I also look for in rookies. Isaac was much more productive than Chop. For all of Chop’s athletic ability, the production (counting stats) was limited (can you say Mike Mamula? Google him if you don’t know his story).
Special Bonus Tier – Cornerbacks
1. Cooper DeJean – CB or S – Philadelphia
2. Mike Sainristil – Slot CB - Washington
3. Javon Bullard – S / Slot CB – Green Bay
4. Kool-Aid McKinstry – CB – New Orleans
5. Kamari Lassiter – CB - Houston
6. Andru Phillips – New York Giants
7. Terrion Arnold – CB – Detroit
8. Ennis Rakestraw Jr – CB – Detroit
For those leagues where CB is a truly premium scoring position, I built out this ranked list of Cornerbacks. DeJean was covered previously in this article. The others are ranked based on probability of playing a lot of slot cornerback with the ability to accumulate fantasy IDP stats from that position.
Post-NFL draft Dynasty rookie draft strategy
My positional takes in the pre-draft article were mostly right on target with how the NFL draft played out. Overall, this turned out to be a top heavy but not very deep NFL draft. Thus, my rookie draft strategy has only changed slightly from the pre-draft article. Following are my strategy recommendations:
If I have a later first round pick:
- I am attempting to create a package to trade into the top 8.
- If unsuccessful in trading up, I am looking to trade back to acquire preferably multiple early to mid 2nd round picks.
- If still unsuccessful in trading that later 1st round pick to either move up or move down, then I would be strongly considering exploring trading for a veteran player(s).
- Now the type of veteran(s) I would trade for will depend on a truly honest assessment of my team.
- If I have a chance to win it all, I would consider selling that pick for veterans in their late 20s.
- Of course, if I am a middle of the pack or a rebuilding team, I would look for a veteran that would not be fading as my team begins peaking down the road as my team turns things around.
- If still unsuccessful, I would attempt to turn this pick into a 2025 first rounder with some additional draft or veteran compensation.
If I have later round picks (4th thru 6th rounds):
- I am looking to use them to move up in this draft
- If unsuccessful, I would look to trade them for future draft picks (e.g. a 4th this year for a 3rd next year).
If I still end up with later round picks:
- I am taking shots at either very high-end athletic players, particularly those who have not been playing football for a long time, or I am drafting players at the RB, WR, or LB position where I might get lucky and hit on the unexpected outlier.
Hope this article leads you to a very successful Dynasty Rookie Draft. Thank you for reading my Top 72 Offense and IDP Dynasty Rookie articles. You can find me on Twitter @rickyrod66.
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