Top 72 Offensive and IDP Rookies Sorted by Dynasty Draft Round Worthiness.
To assist in preparation for your upcoming dynasty rookie drafts, following are my pre-draft top 72 offensive and IDP dynasty rookies. I’ve sorted these Top 72 into the “dynasty rookie draft round” that I believe these players are worthy of being drafted. Of course, and as always, player landing spots, expected utilization in their new NFL homes (snaps, on-field positioning), and draft capital will have huge implications to the value of these rookies.
Thus, post the NFL draft, I will: 1) update the “dynasty rookie draft round” worthiness, and 2) rank the top rookies from #’s 1-72. For those wondering, I chose 72 because it represents a 12-team dynasty league with a 6-round rookie draft.
Take a look at our recent Top Rookies Post-Combine Articles:
Similar to many of you reading this article, I play in multiple leagues that each have their own unique scoring system.
Given the many unique scoring systems, what is assumed for these rankings?
• 1 QB Leagues…though there are some Superflex notes
• 1-point PPR
• Non-TE premium
• 5 position IDP (DT, Edge, LB, CB, S)
• IDP scoring systems provide appropriate values for each of the 5 positions
• IDP’s provide relatively similar scoring values to offensive players
• Very deep rosters including taxi squads
What are the strengths and weaknesses of this rookie draft class?
Strong:
Wide Receiver: It is deep. They come in all shapes and sizes. They come in many different varieties with various strengths and some opportunities / challenges. But wow, there are 3 potential 10-year dynasty studs at the top of the list and 8 to 10 more that can be multi-year starters.
Cornerbacks: It is great for real-life football that CB’s are a strength but unfortunately cornerbacks, even with adjusted scoring systems, don’t have the greatest of values in most fantasy leagues.
Solid:
Quarterbacks: Many NFL teams are currently desperate for good quarterback play because let’s be honest, there was a lot of bad QB play last year. We, as fans and dynasty owners, want the most important position on the field to have star players who facilitate peak performances across all skill positions and make the game we so love exciting. However, the allure of using a top draft pick on a QB does not always equate to reality.
Jacob Robinson of The Athletic recently shared a study of QB’s selected in the Top 10 since 2011: 41% of those QB’s became a “major reach” or a “bust.” It gets worse if you exclude QB’s that were picked 1st overall. If a QB was picked #2-10 overall, they were a “major reach” or “bust” ~55% of the time. In this rookie class, there is one rookie, Caleb Williams, who should ascend to at least “solid starter” status if not “star” status over his career.
However, there are question marks across all the perceived next top 5 QB’s and the odds appear to be more than 50% against them being a “star” or “solid starter.” Several of these rookie QB’s will be drafted much higher than they should be selected by desperate NFL teams looking for that good quarterback play. If we are not careful as dynasty owners, we can fall into the same trap in trying to fill that QB hole in our roster, particularly in superflex leagues, and potentially draft a “major reach” over Harrison/Nabers/Odunze.
Okay:
Defensive Tackles and Edge: These two positions are lumped together because outside of a few stellar rookies at the top of these position rankings, there is a “smorgasbord” of solid but not spectacular players.
Some of the “smorgasbord” might develop over time but I would rather try to snatch them off the waiver wire than stash them on my taxi squad. You also certainly won’t find any of the run-stuffing 330 to 360 pound DT’s on the draft-worthy list. NFL teams want and need these types of behemoths clogging the middle of the trenches but similar to, e.g., blocking TE’s, they normally do not provide significant fantasy scoring.
Tight Ends: If not for one certain TE who is really quite good and has a great name for Pro Wrestling, Brock Bowers, this group would be listed in the “weak” section below (and for the wrestling fans out there, you can hear Paul Heyman shouting out “Brock Bowers”).
Similar to wide receivers, there are lots of shapes and sizes at the tight end position. The difference though is that these non-Bowers Tight Ends are your basic vanilla, chocolate and strawberry ice cream flavors while the other Wide Receivers are your more exciting Cookies and Cream & Cookie Dough varieties.
Weak:
Running Backs: If you look at 20 different rookie rankings, you are most likely going to find 20 different results. The reason is quite simple; there are no standout studs and this is just not a great class even though many are trying to will it to be what it really is not. Yes, we all want it to be great. Yes, we all hope it will be great.
The reality is that we are going to look back in 3 years and say “wow, this class of RB’s overall was loaded with JAGs (just another guy).” There will of course be an exception or two but it will be more based on landing spot combined with injuries ahead of them on the depth chart and not necessarily because of skill and it most likely will not align with the draft capital received. Your selections at this position, if you are successful, will probably fall into the category of “sometimes it is better to be lucky than good.”
Linebackers: The lifeblood of many IDP teams is the linebacker position. Unfortunately, there are only a few rookie LB’s that have the chance to be the three-down, 100% of snaps, tackle-monsters that we crave like a great Filet Mignon.
The majority of the rest are destined to be 1st and maybe 2nd down thumpers or special team stalwarts which is more like a Salisbury Steak meal (certainly not filet mignon, but at least better than chopped liver).
Safeties: For fantasy football scoring, we love those safeties that are used down in the box to generate those tackles, tackles for loss, and even the occasional sack. This does not appear to be the rookie class that is going to provide many of these types of studs.
What does this mean for the overall draft class?
While there is always NFL rookie draft fever this time of year, the reality is that “overall’ this is not a very deep class. Yes, wide receivers are extremely deep and cornerbacks look extremely promising. Across the majority of the other positions, there are a few very talented (but not necessarily stud) players at the top of the position rankings but then there is a quick drop off of tiers to “solid” players.
You may be asking why is that the case. My theory in answering that question: 1) this year is the lowest number of early draft entry declarations in at least the last 4 years, and 2) there are very few players with the extra covid year that had not previously declared for the draft.
Who are the Dynasty Rookie Draft “Round 1 worthy” players?
The NFL draft has 32 picks in the first round. However, NFL teams normally only have first round grades on 16 to 19 players with approximately double that number with second round grades. Similarly, I do not currently have 12 players worthy of first round dynasty rookie grades in this 2024 class. Here is my list that I would consider as of today as locks for the first round of dynasty rookie drafts:
• Marvin Harrison Jr – WR – Ohio State
• Malik Nabers – WR - LSU
• Rome Odunze – WR - Washington
• Brian Thomas Jr. – WR - LSU
• Brock Bowers – TE - Georgia
• Caleb Williams – QB - USC
• Jayden Daniels – QB - LSU
Seven, that is the list. And unfortunately, there are no IDP’s (even with enhanced scoring for each of the 5 positions) that receive a 1st round worthiness grade. Jayden Daniels was a borderline inclusion but I kept him in this first round list because of his incredible running ability which is such a tremendous cheat code for the position. Justin Fields was a Top 12 QB often facilitated by his work in the running game; I see that as the floor for Daniels.
I do have a concern about Brock Bowers and that is in regards to the “tight-rope surgery” he underwent this past season at Georgia. Yes, this new tight-rope surgery that surgeons are performing is getting these players back on the field faster than in the past. The looming questions are whether or not these players are returning at full capability in the immediate term as well as will there be longer term implications.
While many draft analysts have the current top 3 rookie WR order of Harrison, Nabers, and Odunze, the actual NFL teams that these three end up being drafted by could play a significant role in the recommended order for rookie drafts.
If you agree that these three players have the opportunity to be studs, would you feel better about drafting Harrison if he ends up with the Patriots, Nabers if he ends up with the Chargers, or Odunze if he ends up with the Bears? I am not sure Harrison remains #1 if this is how the NFL draft plays out (think about how things have worked out to date for Pitts and London as comparison points).
Who are the Dynasty Rookie Draft “Round 2 worthy” players?
Ah yes, the 2nd round list is much longer than the 1st round list. As noted previously, the “draft round worthiness” and actual rankings will shift dramatically based on landing spots, expected utilization in their new NFL homes (snaps, on-field positioning) and draft capital. However, if there was ever a year where I would like to have multiple 2nd round rookie draft picks to take as many dart throws as possible, particularly at WR, this would be the year.
• Drake Maye – QB – North Carolina
• JJ McCarthy – QB – Michigan
• Jonathon Brooks – RB – Texas
• Jermaine Burton – WR – Alabama
• Keon Coleman – WR – Florida St
• Malachi Corley – WR – Western Kentucky
• Troy Franklin – WR – Oregon
• Xavier Legette – WR – South Carolina
• Ladd McConkey – WR - Georgia
• Adonai Mitchell – WR - Texas
• Ricky Pearsall – WR – Florida
• Ja’Lynn Polk – WR – Washington
• Xavier Worthy – WR – Texas
• Byron Murphy Jr – DT – Texas
• Jer’Zhan (Johnny) Newton – DT – Illinois
• Laiatu Latu – Edge – UCLA
• Dallas Turner – Edge – Alabama
• Jared Verse – Edge – Florida St
• Junior Colson – LB – Michigan
• Edgerrin Cooper – LB – Texas A&M
10 of the 20 players with 2nd round dynasty rookie draft worthy grades are WR’s. I do really like this top-end of the IDP class but once again there is a pretty decent gap in performance expectations between this group and the next tier of IDPs.
I do expect WR’s to fly off the board early and often during the first two days of the NFL Draft. One reason is clearly because of the amount of talent at the position. A second reason is because of the lack of talented depth at other positions. However, there is a third very important reason and that is top WR’s who are soon to be free agents (Jefferson, Lamb, Chase, Higgins, etc.) are going to get paid mega-dollar contracts.
This is going to drive the entire WR market-price upwards which will in turn result in NFL General Managers’ knowing that their #2, 3, and even 4 WR’s will ask for more than the team is willing to pay and will thus be hitting the free agent marker in the future. Those same GM’s will be looking to get ahead of the game and draft and develop the younger and more affordable WR talent to replace those upcoming free agents.
There are three players that I included on this list with trepidation: the 1 RB and the 2 QB’s. Brooks played behind Bijan Robinson in previous years. Then, in his first year as the starter, he injured his knee. Can he really be a bell-cow back? Even though he is supposed to be healthy for the start of training camp, will he truly be the 100% version we saw before the knee injury, or will it be year 2 before we see that explosiveness and return to full peak performance?
Ultimately, I don’t think he will be a bellcow RB.
Related to the QB’s, I am a firm believer that being truly tested and experienced at the college level is key to success at the pro level. While McCarthy has the athleticism, the arm-talent, and the “intangibles,” he only started 28 games and didn’t reach even 500 pass attempts in his college career.
Sorry, but that is a major red flag. On the Maye front, going down ~3% in completion percentage while also having a significant drop in touchdowns and an increase in interceptions from 2022 to 2023 is very concerning. Maybe his o-line took a step backwards from the previous year. However, is it going to be any easier if he is drafted by the Commanders or Patriots?
In the cases of both McCarthy and Maye, if they are thrown into the fire too quickly, I do not think they will succeed longer term. They need time to learn from the sideline (think Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love, Carson Palmer) before being thrown into the fire.
Who are the Dynasty Rookie Draft “Round 3 worthy” players?
There are still a large number of potentially valuable fantasy players in this round; however, at this point in time, it feels like a large tier drop off across all the positions. Some of these players could become solid starters on your fantasy squads. At the same time, these players might be dropped to the waiver wire as they near the end of their rookie season. Each of these players have certain traits and or position-viability that make them worthy of a 3rd round draft pick. At the same time, I would suggest you keep your expectations in check.
• Bo Nix – QB – Oregon
• Michael Penix Jr – QB – Washington
• Trey Benson – RB – Florida St
• Blake Corum – RB – Michigan
• Jaylen Wright – RB - Tennessee
• Jalen McMillian – WR - Washington
• Malik Washington – WR - Virginia
• Roman Wilson – WR – Michigan
• Ja’Tavion Sanders – TE – Texas
• Maason Smith – DT – LSU
• Darius Robinson – DT or Edge – Missouri
• Chop Robinson – Edge – Penn St
• Marshawn Kneeland – Edge – Western Michigan
• Payton Wilson – LB – North Carolina St
• Cooper DeJean – CB or S – Iowa
• Jaden Hicks – S – Washington St
In Superflex leagues, I would not argue with moving both Penix and Nix to the 2nd round of a dynasty rookie draft but they both certainly have question marks. Penix has an incredible arm but so did Jamarcus Russell.
He will not be protected as well in the pros as he was in college and he simply struggled in those moments when he did face pressure (e.g., versus Michigan in championship game). While Penix showed athleticism at his Pro Day, he rarely demonstrated that on the field and when he was pushed out of the pocket it impacted his accuracy. Nix completed over 77% of his passes but an inordinate amount of those completions was behind the line of scrimmage and/or within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
On the defensive side of things, Chop Robinson demonstrated incredible athletic ability. Unfortunately, that athleticism did not translate into large volumes of big play production numbers (i.e. sacks, tackles for loss).
There is upside but not to the point I would invest a 2nd round rookie draft pick on him. Payton Wilson also showed tremendous athleticism and it did translate into production; however, he has injury concerns and he is an older prospect coming out of college. In this round, we see our first cornerback coming off the board in DeJean.
Why would I have a cornerback in Round 3? If DeJean is drafted by a team that utilizes him as a safety but he has a cornerback designation in your league, then this provides a significant boost in his value (basically a cheat code). In addition, if your league includes points for return yards DeJean could provide additional point value in that role as well.
Who are the Dynasty Rookie Draft “Rounds 4 and 5 worthy” players?
There is another large tier drop across the positions as we move from Round 3 to Rounds 4 and 5. I wanted to offer you at least one rookie player at each position in this tier for consideration so I consolidated Rounds 4 and 5. Even in doing so, I only have 16 worthy players at this juncture.
• Spencer Rattler – QB – South Carolina
• Braelon Allen – RB – Wisconsin
• Audric Estime – RB – Notre Dame
• MarShawn Lloyd – RB – USC
• Javon Baker – WR – UCF
• Jacob Cowing – WR – Arizona
• Brenden Rice – WR - USC
• Tez Walker – WR – North Carolina
• Erick All – TE – Iowa
• Theo Johnson – TE – Penn St
• Michael Hall Jr – DT – Ohio St
• Chris Braswell – Edge - Alabama
• Trevin Wallace – LB – Kentucky
• Mike Sainristil – Slot CB - Michigan
• Tyler Nubin – S – Minnesota
• Cole Bishop – S – Utah
Through 5 rounds, I only have 7 RB’s targeted to be selected and most are in the later rounds. It is okay if you disagree with my rankings and I’m sure many of you do. Time will tell, but personally I am only attempting to draft these running backs this late in the draft unless I become very, very, very surprised by draft capital.
Similar to fellow Nittany Lion Chop Robinson, Theo Johnson displayed some speed and athleticism at the combine but it did not translate to on-the-field stats. Does he develop over 3 years and are you willing and able to stash him for that long?
Sainristil is expected to be primarily a slot corner. In the right scheme, he can become a Kenny Moore or Taron Johnson CB scoring weapon. If Nubin is utilized differently than he was at Minnesota, he has a lot of upside at the Safety position.
Who are the Dynasty Rookie Draft “Rounds 6 and later worthy” players?
Well, we’ve covered 59 players worth drafting to this point. Now, because it isn’t a particularly deep class, it is time to pick your personal favorite flavor of rookie. It may be a player that went to your favorite college. Maybe you’ve done your own “watching of the tape” and have a stronger passion for a player. Maybe you are a relative or a neighbor of one of these players or their families.
Either way, at this point, your draft pick strategy is truly throwing something at the wall and see if it sticks. Following are my final 13 players that I would take a shot at along with others that missed the cut but we will want to keep an eye on during the NFL Draft.
• Ray Davis – RB – Kentucky
• Isaac Guerendo – RB – Tennessee
• Will Shipley – RB – Clemson
• Luke McCaffrey – WR – Rice
• Johnny Wilson – WR – Florida St
• Ben Sinnott – TE – Kansas St
• Jared Wiley – TE – TCU
• Braden Fiske – DT – Florida St
• Ruke Orhorhoro – DT – Clemson
• Austin Booker – Edge - Kansas
• Jeremiah Trotter Jr – LB – Clemson
• Malik Mustapha – S – Wake Forest
• Quinyon Mitchell – CB – Toledo
Who missed cracking the Dynasty Rookie Draft Round 6?
• Frank Gore Jr – RB – Southern Mississippi
• Bucky Irving – RB – Oregon
• Dillon Johnson – RB – Washington
• Dylan Laube – RB – New Hampshire
• Kimani Vidal – RB – Troy
• Blake Watson – RB - Memphis
• Anthony Gould – WR – Oregon St
• Jha’Quan Jackson – WR – Tulane
• Cornelius Johnson – WR – Michigan
• Ainias Smith – WR – Texas A&M
• Jamari Thrash – WR – Louisville
• Tahj Washington – WR – USC
• Jaheim Bell – TE – Florida St
• Cade Stover – TE – Ohio St
• Brandon Dorlus – DT - Oregon
• Mekhi Wingo – DT – LSU
• Jonah Elliss – Edge – Utah
• Jalyx Hunt – Edge – Houston Christian
• Adisa Isaac – Edge – Penn St
• Mohamed Kamara – Edge - Colorado St
• Bralen Trice – Edge - Washington
• Tommy Eichenberg – LB – Ohio St
• Edefuan Ulofoshio – LB – Washington
• Terrion Arnold – CB – Alabama
• Kool-Aid McKinstry – CB – Alabama
• Ennis Rakestraw Jr – CB - Missouri
• Javon Bullard – S / Slot CB – Georgia
• Kamren Kinchens – S – Miami Fl
And the “just missed the cut” list brings the overall total to 100 rookies.
Given the aforementioned, what is your pre-NFL and pre-dynasty rookie draft strategy?
If I have a later first round pick:
I am attempting to create a package to trade into the top 7
If unsuccessful in trading up, I am looking to trade back to acquire preferably multiple early to mid 2nd round picks.
If still unsuccessful in trading that later 1st round pick to either move up or move down, then I would be strongly considering exploring trading for a veteran player(s). Now the type of veteran(s) I would trade for will depend on a truly honest assessment of my team. If I have a chance to win it all, I would consider selling that pick for veterans in their late 20s. Of course, if I am a middle of the pack team or a rebuilding team, I would look for a veteran that would not be fading as my team begins peaking down the road as I turn things around.
If still unsuccessful, I might see if I can turn this pick into a 2025 first rounder with some additional draft or veteran compensation.
If I have later round picks (4th thru 6th rounds):
I am looking to use them to move up in this draft
If unsuccessful, I would look to trade them for future draft picks (e.g a 4th this year for a 3rd next year).
If I still end up with later round picks:
I am taking shots at either very high-end athletic players, particularly those who have not been playing football for a long time, or I am drafting players at the RB or WR position where I might get lucky and hit on the unexpected outlier.
Don't Forget The Rookies! Top Rookie Prospects by Position
[QB] [WR] [RB] [TE] [DT] [DE] [EDGE] [LB] [S] [CB]
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The NFL Draft is at our doorstep. Stay tuned for the post-draft “round worthiness” and “#1-72 rankings.”
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