We're in peak dynasty and rookie hype season. So what is the value of a Dynasty Rookie Draft pick? Let's discuss this at both a high level as well as specific picks.
Understanding the value of a rookie pick is ever-evolving. Even just the last few years, dynasty has seen a massive shift in how rookie picks are valued. So what are draft picks really worth? The cop-out answer is that it depends on your league. Any general answer is hard to clearly state so let's start with some higher-level discussions to help before we dive into more detailed pieces.
Take a look at our recent Rookie Ranking Articles:
- Rookie Linebacker Rankings for 2024
- Rookie Defensive Tackle Rankings for 2024
- Rookie Edge Rankings for 2024
Who Are The Top Rookie Prospects For The Coming NFL Draft:
[QB]Â [RB]Â [WR]Â [TE]Â [DT]Â [EDGE]Â [LB]Â [CB]Â [S]
Watch Exclusive Interviews With Our Team From The 2024 Reese's Senior Bowl:
The Dynasty Value Cycle and Pick Tiers
For anyone newer to dynasty, the discussion here is fairly straightforward. Dynasty Rookie Draft picks peak in value after the NFL draft when everyone is super hyped. They're at their lowest early during the NFL season, when most managers are trying to win games. So understanding that is one of the biggest things to know.
Additionally, understanding the players in the draft and how you, and more importantly consensus, value these players is huge. Take the 2024 class, up until a few weeks ago most would have said the tier break is either at 1.06 or 1.07. Now though? Add one to that. Why? There is just too much buzz on J.J. McCarthy going early to not include him in the top group from a value perspective (SuperFlex leagues).
So what does this mean? It's a terrible time to attempt and acquire a pick like 1.07 in a SuperFlex league, 1.08 might still be gettable. Post NFL combine though, and those picks are becoming more valuable as well. People are drooling over the WRs in this class. The RBs are going to push up with draft capital. Edges and LBs tested well too and are gaining steam in IDP leagues.
The flipside to that coin, though, is now is the perfect time to get some veteran options if you're a win-now team. If your pick isn't in that top tier, it's a fantastic option. In one league I'm in, I saw Josh Jacobs get traded for just the 2.01 in a 16-team league, with a late-round pick included with Jacobs. RBs are volatile buys but this class isn't strong and Jacobs ought to outperform any players at 2.01.
What About IDPs?
Adding IDPs into the rookie draft mix makes the valuation quite a bit more complex. Why? Because IDPs are super volatile and landing spot specific. Jack Campbell wasn't viewed as the universal LB1 last year until he went in the first round. It pushed him a lot closer to Will Anderson too, who was the clear top IDP pre-draft.
One rule to subscribe to, in general, is to avoid being the first to take an IDP. Last year was the exception when Will Anderson was the prize of IDP rookies. This year, I see three to four edges, multiple LBs, and probably a safety (or two) all close enough to be patient with your Dynasty Rookie Draft picks.
For that reason, it's typically best to be patient with IDPs. Both in the draft and afterward, IDPs take quite a bit of time to hit. They have such hard-to-predict hit rates too that, especially in a win-now build, trading later picks for IDP assets is probably a better bet. Even trading for guys like Nolan Smith, who might not have big rookie roles, makes sense if you like them and can get them cheaper.
So What is a Dynasty Rookie Draft pick worth?
Such a loaded question that, even if I could give a straightforward answer to, isn't even applicable to every league. The best advice is to understand where the rookies fit in value-wise relative to veteran players. From there, it's easier to come up with plausible trades for a pick and it makes it easier to judge. The rest is tied to how you dynasty.
The best thing to do is to tier rookies and use those tiers to help gauge value. Obviously, you can't predict the exact players at each spot, but understanding that general value is huge. Once you have tiers and can compare those players to similarly valued vets, that's a great way to value draft picks.
In this class in particular, knowing what you need is key. For instance, this class is strong at QB and at WR. It's got depth at RB, edge, and LB. DBs and TEs are fairly weak overall though. So knowing that, outside of the top eight tier, I'd be willing to trade a pick to acquire a stud RB.
If you're trading a top-four pick in a single QB or top-eight in SuperFlex, make sure you get a long-term piece. Getting an established good player is much safer than a rookie pick. Late 1sts and early 2nds are highly volatile in this class. Some of these WRs and RBs are going to be good but some will flop and anyone who claims to know which is which is lying.
With IDPs, typically they come into play in the second round of a rookie draft. If trading a pick where you can get that type of high-end IDP, make sure to get a similar upside in a deal. I'm targeting guys like Montez Sweat, Trey Hendrickson, and Jermaine Johnson types there, probably to teams in a rebuild. Otherwise, might as well wait for Dallas Turner or Jared Verse to become studs.
As for late-round picks, the hit rate is super low but you can get guys like a Kyren Williams, a Puka Nacua, or a Tank Dell. Do you need to chase that upside? If not, keep in mind the Tank Bigsby and Kayshon Boutte potential and get players who might have upside or a specific role on your dynasty roster. Maybe it's taking a shot on a Tyler Lockett off a down year or a vet like Haason Reddick.
The moral of the story is to understand the draft and timing with trades. People love rookies when they're on the clock, and hope springs eternal. Moving up in a draft is important to do now, moving down can wait until later. If you have specific questions, check out the IDP Plus discord server or tweet at us on X to get our writers to give you personalized advice. Happy Dynasty Rookie Draft Pick trading!!
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